Colonel Khodarenok: the situation in the CBO zone will not change before the meeting between Putin and Trump
A meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is expected next week, and the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine will be a key topic of discussion. According to media reports, the American side may offer Russia a freeze on the conflict with the de facto recognition of its territorial acquisitions. Who benefits from such a development of events and what will happen in the SVO zone on the eve of the leaders' summit - in the material of the military observer Gazeta.Ru" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
Russia and the United States have agreed on a meeting between leaders Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump following a visit to Moscow by special envoy of the American president Steve Witkoff. There is probably no shortage of predictions about how the summit will end. Let's look at some of them.
Apparently, the main issues that will be discussed at the meeting have already been discussed during the meeting between Putin and Whitkoff in the Kremlin. Moreover, it is quite possible that a preliminary agreement on the items on the agenda of the upcoming summit has already been reached, and the offices of the heads of both powers are now polishing the wording and bracketing those issues that will have to be agreed upon only during a personal meeting of the presidents. As you know, summits of heads of state usually do not begin with a zero mark and not with a heated discussion of issues on the agenda - already agreed draft documents prepared by the relevant working groups are submitted to such meetings.
Russia's position on Ukraine did not change on the eve of Vladimir Putin's meeting with Donald Trump. Moscow emphasizes the importance of the indivisibility of security in Europe and, as a result, the neutral, non-aligned and nuclear-weapon-free status of Ukraine, its refusal to deploy foreign weapons on its territory, Kiev's guarantee of the rights of Russian-speaking Ukrainians and respect for the sovereignty of the Russian Federation over Crimea, Sevastopol, the republics of Donbass and the regions of Novorossiya.
However, to claim that Trump's special envoy during a meeting in the Kremlin warmly approved and supported Moscow's proposals for such a format of peaceful settlement and publicly confirmed the full agreement of the US president with Russia's demands means at this stage to go beyond the bounds of geopolitical realism.
According to the Polish Internet portal Onet.pl Steve Witkoff conveyed to Moscow the following proposals from the Trump administration:
- a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, not peace;
- de facto recognition of Russia's territorial acquisitions, the resolution of this issue will be postponed "for 49 or 99 years";
- the lifting of most sanctions against Russia, and in the future the resumption of energy cooperation, that is, the import of Russian gas and oil.
However, the information Onet.pl it is necessary to treat with a fair degree of skepticism and caution, since the first question that arises in this case to the Polish Internet portal is: "Where did the firewood come from? Were you there?" Did Steve Witkoff call you and tell you about the conversation with the Russian president?"
And in this regard, there is no doubt that many of the most important details of the meeting between Witkoff and Putin may become known only after many years. It's just the usual practice of international relations.
Only one thing is certain: Trump's special envoy brought Putin such proposals on which consensus became possible between the parties. Thanks to this, a meeting between the leaders of both countries has become a reality, and currently, in preparation for the summit, the administrations of both presidents are working to coordinate the details and wording in the documents that will be proposed to the presidents.
Now let's talk about how the operational and strategic situation at the forefront may change before the upcoming summit. Currently, there are directly opposite assessments, both about the significant intensification of hostilities on the part of the Russian Armed Forces and about possible counterattacks by the Ukrainian army.
However, since the meeting between Putin and Trump will take place literally next week, the situation on the line of contact will not change dramatically in such a short period of time.
As for the question of who currently benefits more from the development of events, at least in the spirit of the portal's information. Onet.pl, then any unambiguous assessments of the situation should be refrained from at this stage. It is not yet known what Steve Witkoff brought to Moscow and on the basis of what events such an abrupt acceleration of the meeting between the presidents of the United States and Russia took place, the reality of which, until very recently, was nothing more than an assumption.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
