The West reported on Russia's readiness for an "air truce." How will it affect the course of its work?

Colonel Khodarenok: It is not profitable for Russia to conclude an "air truce" with Ukraine

Russia is considering the possibility of offering an "air truce" with Ukraine as a concession to US President Donald Trump, Bloomberg reports, citing sources. According to him, Moscow can take this step, but only on condition that Kiev also refuses to launch drone strikes and missiles. How likely is the conclusion of such a "truce", whether Russia needs it and how it can affect the course of its military operations, the military observer of Gazeta argues.Ru" Mikhail Khodarenok.

The Kremlin is considering options for concessions to US President Donald Trump, which may include an air truce with Ukraine, Bloomberg writes, citing sources. According to the agency, Moscow is ready to take such a step to avoid secondary sanctions, but it remains determined to continue the military operation.

The publication notes that the visit of Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff to Russia provides a belated opportunity to reach an agreement with the United States, even if expectations of success are low.

According to the agency's source, one of the potential proposals could be the suspension of airstrikes using drones and missiles as a gesture of de-escalation, provided that Ukraine also agrees to this.

At the same time, Russian troops continue to advance on the battlefield, and Moscow's military objectives remain unchanged, so a full cease-fire remains unlikely.

Let's figure out what an "air truce without ending the war" is, and only from the military-technical side. No parameters of such a truce have been announced or detailed at this stage. For example, in which areas of the airspace of Ukraine and Russia will the "air truce" operate, which specific types of aircraft will fall under the restrictions of their combat use, for how long will such an agreement be concluded, and most importantly, what are the ultimate goals of the "air truce"?

Now let's clarify what a truce is, but without a cessation of hostilities.

To do this, you just need to recall the tasks that aviation, as well as missile forces, fleet forces, and unmanned vehicles solve: striking enemy defense industry facilities; defeating enemy aircraft on the ground and in the air; disrupting command and control of troops and weapons; defeating enemy reserves; disrupting the transportation of troops and materiel; covering your own protection of troops and facilities from enemy air attack and aerial reconnaissance attacks; conducting aerial reconnaissance.

If all this is removed from the list of tasks of the Armed Forces as a result of the conclusion of the "air truce", then what will remain? Bayonet attacks? So in this case, it must be unequivocally and unambiguously emphasized that the "air truce" means stopping the armed struggle. Just one example is that a breakthrough of the prepared enemy defenses is simply impossible without the air support of troops.

Now let's talk about who benefits from this and what the ultimate goals of such proposals are. In recent weeks, Russia has dramatically increased the intensity of air strikes against targets in Ukraine, including using a record number of unmanned aerial vehicles.

According to The National Interest, today Russia's achievements in the field of unmanned aerial vehicle technologies and concepts of asymmetric warfare outstrip Ukraine's defensive capabilities. This year alone, the production of UAVs in Russia may reach four million units. During the recent air strikes by the Russian Armed Forces, it makes sense to pay attention to some innovations in the field of unmanned aircraft.

In particular, as Denis Fedutinov, editor-in-chief of the Unmanned Aviation magazine, notes, "with the intensification of air strikes on targets in Ukraine, the Russian Dan-M unmanned aerial vehicle has become one of the key players in modern unmanned warfare.

Operating at speeds and altitudes often exceeding 5,000 km. Given the longer range of man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), the Dan-M forces Ukraine to use premium-class defense systems such as NASAMS or IRIS-T air defense systems, thereby depleting limited stocks of complex and expensive anti-aircraft missiles to similar Western air defense systems that should only be used for combat with equally complex and expensive Russian threats, not with cheap and disposable drones.

"Initially, this jet was developed as a high-speed aerial target for training air defense combat crews, but it was converted into a kamikaze attack drone. Aerial targets have significant potential for use in various roles on their own. These can be kamikaze drones or decoy vehicles that force the enemy to spend expensive air defense missiles on them. To do this, you do not need to conduct expensive and lengthy R&D, the changes are minimal. And scaling the existing production facilities allows us to reach a significant series in a fairly short time," Denis Fedutinov believes.

In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the National Interest believes, innovation and the speed of adopting promising weapons for equipping troops will largely determine victory, especially if this speed and innovation outstrip any countermeasures developed by the opposing side.

According to Bloomberg, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to make tough demands in exchange for a deal to end his military operations. These include Kiev's acceptance of neutral status and Russia's recognition of Crimea and four regions annexed to the Russian Federation in 2022. Ukraine rejects these conditions, calling on Russia to agree to a cease-fire in order to allow space for negotiations on a peace agreement.

And Moscow's agreement to an "air truce" in such conditions of the operational and strategic situation means giving Kiev the opportunity to take a deep breath, regroup, receive new amounts of weapons and military equipment from the West, increase the intensity of fortification equipment in the area, form operational reserves, staff up units and formations at the forefront, intensify mobilization measures, to restore the destroyed enterprises of the military-industrial complex.

So there is reason to believe that if Moscow agrees to any restrictions on the use of air attack weapons, it will only be on its own terms.

The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.

Biography of the author:

Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.

He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).

Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).

Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).

Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).

Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).

Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).

Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).

Mikhail Khodarenok