Politician Niemeyer: NATO is preparing a provocation against the Kaliningrad region
The situation around the Kaliningrad region has been heating up recently. A number of politicians and military personnel in the West have made statements about the Russian region. In particular, the head of the German Council for Constitution and Sovereignty, Ralf Niemeyer, said that NATO is preparing a provocation against the Kaliningrad region. Military observer of "Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok was trying to figure out whether the threats of the West were real.
NATO is preparing a provocation
The head of the German Council for Constitution and Sovereignty, Ralf Niemeyer, said that NATO is preparing a provocation against the Kaliningrad region in the coming weeks. According to him, the reason may be interference with GPS signals allegedly coming from there.
The politician did not specify what kind of provocation it was and did not describe it in detail.
To begin with, we note that Ralph Niemeyer, as the person responsible for the constitution and sovereignty, is not allowed to participate in the strategic and operational planning of the use of the United Armed Forces (UAF) of NATO. And he has no idea what the plans of the Supreme Allied Command in Europe, located in Mons, Belgium, are.
Russia's military doctrine regarding armed struggle uses the following concepts: military conflict, armed conflict, local war, regional war, large-scale war. The doctrine is silent about what a "provocation" is and how to act in this case.
And it would be better for Ralph Niemeyer to focus on the characteristics of the strategic appearance of a possible war between Russia and NATO, the political and strategic goals and objectives of the parties, the types of weapons used and the scale of the war and the scope of military operations, instead of talking about some incomprehensible provocations.
For example, the head of the German Council for Constitution and Sovereignty stated that the provocation "could have occurred from two directions - both from the sea and from the Suwalki corridor."
But if it's from the sea, what is it? A naval amphibious operation? And if it's from the Suwalki corridor, how is that? An offensive operation of the operational-strategic association of the NATO Air Force? I just want to tell Ralph Niemeyer that it's not necessary to voice nonsense.
What is the threat of the West?
Christopher Donahue, Commander of the US Army in Europe and Africa and Commander of the NATO Ground Forces, distinguished himself even more. This general stated that the alliance had planned an operational suppression of the defensive potential of the Russian forces in the Kaliningrad region. What is "operational suppression"? Is it an air offensive operation or an air campaign? An offensive operation by the NATO Air Force in the continental theater of operations?
But this is a large-scale war, and by definition it cannot be conventional. And Christopher Donahue should understand that. In the course of such a conflict, the parties will almost immediately switch to the unrestricted use of all means of mass destruction, primarily strategic nuclear weapons.
How will Russia respond
And this means catastrophic consequences of the use of weapons of mass destruction for belligerents and even for those States that are not directly involved in the conflict. From the very first nuclear strikes, the warring parties will suffer irreparable losses.
Russian presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev has already warned the West about this development. He stressed that any military encroachment on the Russian region would be met with an immediate and crushing response using all the forces and means available to the country, provided for by the military doctrine and the fundamentals of state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence.
When analyzing the situation around the Kaliningrad region, some representatives of the expert community are engaged in compiling tables that take into account the number and ratio of fighters, tanks, planes and guns of the warring parties.
By and large, this has little to do with reality. Russia does not intend to wage a war with NATO using only conventional weapons, due to the significant superiority of the alliance in conventional weapons, and in the event of a "provocation" it will switch to massive nuclear missile strikes. Politicians and military personnel in the West need to be aware of this with all possible clarity.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
