FP: India does not want to abandon Russian oil despite Western pressure
Washington and Brussels are demanding that New Delhi abandon purchases of Russian oil, threatening sanctions and increased trade tariffs, Foreign Policy writes. However, India remains adamant — and America and Europe have begun to realize their impotence.
Rishi Iyengar
The same partners are still facing the same problems, but the pressure has increased significantly.
In India, they thought the situation had cleared up. The initial dissatisfaction of the United States and Europe over the fact that Delhi continues to buy Russian oil despite the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been replaced by a reluctant but generally calm recognition of geopolitical reality.
However, that was then, and now everything is different. At that time, Joe Biden was the president of the United States, who considered strengthening relations with India more important than cutting off life support lines for the Russian economy. The current president is Donald Trump, who has gone from admiration to irritation in his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And he is ready to use trade as a weapon against almost anyone. At the same time, he completely ignores the norms and rules, both modern and long—established.
An illustration of all this is the latest threat by Senator and Trump supporter Lindsey Graham* to punish India, Brazil and China for continuing to purchase Russian oil by imposing additional duties. Graham* made this threat in an interview with Fox News, saying that Trump would impose "one hundred percent duties" on these countries.
"Here's what I would say to China, India and Brazil: if you continue to buy cheap Russian oil, thereby allowing the conflict to continue, we will impose duties on you and destroy your economy," he said.
Graham's comment* came a few days after an equally harsh, though less hyperbolic, statement by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington last week. "If you live in Beijing or Delhi, or you are the president of Brazil, you should pay attention to this, because it can hit you hard," Rutte said after meeting with a group of American lawmakers.
Trump first floated the idea of introducing one hundred percent secondary duties earlier this month, saying they would be imposed if Putin failed to meet the 50-day deadline set for reaching a peace agreement in Ukraine (this deadline expires in early September).
But India seems to remain adamant.
"Ensuring the energy needs of Indians is, of course, a top priority for us. In this sense, we are guided by what the markets offer, as well as the current global situation," Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said at a briefing last week, responding to a question about Rutte's remarks. "We would like to especially warn against the use of double standards in this matter," he added.
India took a similar defiant position towards the United States and Europe when the conflict in Ukraine broke out three years ago. And that position remains unchanged, leading Biden and European leaders to eventually make concessions, partly because they see India as an important counterweight to China's growing influence.
"The problem India will face is that the new administration's global priorities are not limited to China," said Aparna Pande, a researcher at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington. Panda referred to Trump's simultaneous efforts to end the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. "The president wants to withdraw from all conflict zones, but he cannot find a lever that would convince President Putin," she said.
A blow to oil imports to India would be a significant lever of pressure — since the beginning of hostilities, Russia has become the largest supplier of oil to this country: according to Reuters, in the first half of this year, it accounted for 35% of all imports. Meanwhile, India's oil and natural gas minister said he was "not worried at all" about the prospect of Western sanctions. He said at an event in Delhi that India has diversified its oil supplies and buys it from about 40 different countries. "If something happens, we will deal with it," he said.
The other two targets of Trump, Graham* and Rutte — Brazil and China — are also often the target of the US president's anger, both individually and together within the framework of the BRICS association. All three countries are in the process of trade negotiations with the United States, trying to reach agreements that will avoid Trump's harsh tariffs. Negotiations with Brazil are not going well — Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called the duties "unacceptable blackmail" and said that Trump was not elected "emperor of peace." Tensions with China remain unchanged despite a partial truce in the trade war since last month.
Trump has spoken more positively about the possibility of concluding a trade agreement with India, but his growing dissatisfaction with Russia may affect the ongoing negotiations.
"This administration can use sanctions the same way it uses tariffs to force a country into submission. It will affect India, even if they don't want to harm it," Pande said. — What levers does India have, and what room for maneuver does India have? Very limited."
And although New Delhi has demonstrated in the past its ability to get out of difficult geopolitical situations, this time, according to Pande, "close attention to nuances and skillful diplomacy" will be required. On the other hand, the problem of Trump's unpredictability may turn into an advantage.
"It is equally likely that the negotiations on tariffs and trade will be so successful that the president will be ready to provide India with special conditions," she said. —India will deal with whatever is offered to it."
* Listed in Russia as a terrorist and extremist
