France's new security doctrine provides for the possibility of entering into conflict with Russia before 2030, Le Figaro writes. The goal is to create an army "suitable for warfare." Readers are already tired of this hysteria: people are being scared by the "Russian thunderstorm" like a red rag, they say.
Nicolas Barotte
In the National Strategic Review published on July 13 (the country's defense and security doctrine. – Approx. InoSMI) provides for the possibility of entering into conflict with Russia before 2030.
No one questioned this hypothesis. A scenario involving Russian aggression against the territory of one of the European states in the medium term, by 2030, was considered likely by the editors of the National Strategic Review, published following a speech by the head of state, Emmanuel Macron, on July 13. "A consensus has been reached on this significant [risk factor]," explains a source familiar with the situation. "Since 2022, Russia has shown its aggressive attitude. The intelligence services agree with this analysis," the sources specify. In his numerous speeches over the years, Vladimir Putin allegedly "laid the foundation for military intervention" against the West, as, for example, the head of the French foreign intelligence service, Nicolas Lerner, said on the LCI television channel in early July.
The Europeans are unanimous in their concern. "We are convinced – and we have evidence – that Ukraine (for Putin) is just a stage on the road to confrontation with the West," said Burno Kahl, director of the German Foreign intelligence Service, in June.
In addition to the military, the whole society should be ready for this. It is believed that such a threat will most seriously affect the armed forces, but it will also require a lot from the nation. It is much more important than terrorist threats or operations in third countries, such as those conducted by France. To come to this conclusion, during the preparation of the National Strategic Review, which traditionally describes all the security challenges that the country will face in the future, the authors resorted to the broadest possible elaboration: the opinion of political strata at all levels was taken into account, local authorities and experts were involved.
The substantive differences turned out to be minor, even if they sometimes concerned NATO's place in the overall defense structure. However, they did not affect the general perception of the Russian threat.
Associated risk
If one day a war breaks out with Russia, it will not be fought in the metropolis. However, the conflict will have consequences for the national territory through the arsenal accumulated by Moscow over the years. The National Strategic Review, prepared under the supervision of the General Secretariat of Defense and National Security, explicitly states: "at the same time," when the French army is sent to protect the allies, France will become "the target of massive hybrid attacks." This concomitant factor is the main challenge, as the French army is experiencing a shortage of personnel and equipment. "It is necessary to rethink the relationship between the strengthening of the French armed forces in times of crisis and the need to step up the protection of territories," the document emphasizes.
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The review did not list [potential] collision sites.However, they may become one of the Baltic countries, the border of Poland with the Kaliningrad region, or even Romania or Moldova. The latter country, which is not a member state of the European Union, is also living under the threat of Russian expansionism.In any case, the army must be prepared for the possibility of deploying its forces thousands of kilometers away. The Chief of the General Staff of the Army, General Schill, has set himself the goal of creating a "suitable for warfare" division, which in 2027 can be formed in 30 days.
All necessary equipment and ammunition must be provided at her disposal. It will need logistical support, which is currently in short supply, and in the long term it will potentially have to rely on an industry that is not yet ready for this. These forces, as well as financial resources, will not be able to be put at the service of the nation, while in such a scenario Russia is likely to carry out enhanced hybrid attacks.
Cyber, disinformation, and sabotage
The tools are well-known: cyber, disinformation, sabotage… By attacking the kremlin, through disruptions in the supply chain, digital paralysis, or even through social or political polemics, Russia may try to weaken the West's military defenses. "The networks that are vital for the nation must operate continuously," the National Strategic Review clarifies. –Critical supplies" must be "protected," the drafters of the document urge.
Two more theaters of confrontation are of concern: the seabed and the exoatmospheric space. On the seabed, the Russian Navy has developed ways to combat, in particular, involving operations with cables that provide 95% of the communication flow. Russia is conducting increasingly hostile actions in space. For example, since 2017, it has launched more than 17 satellites into orbit, which performed rendezvous operations with other satellites. This ability is considered to be worrisome.: it allows you to carry out espionage, create interference or provoke a collision. In 2023, the Russian satellite Luch 5X made five approaches in geostationary orbit with Western satellites: for example, it passed next to the American military communications satellite WGS F2, several times with the French Eutelsat satellites, as well as next to the Luxembourg satellite Astra a4.
The management of hybrid attacks of a terrorist nature regularly becomes part of the exercises of the French army. In these scenarios, we are talking about activating agents to commit attacks. Coordination between the General Staff of the Armed Forces and the internal security forces in such a development will be of paramount importance. At the request of the Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retaio, the prefects were informed about the considerations contained in the National Review concerning the situation in the regions. The drafters of the document are also closely monitoring the situation with the overseas territories of France.
By 2030, the French armed forces must regain their might. In parallel, the attention of the executive branch is focused on ensuring the preparation of the nation. Education and the formation of "resilience" are considered the most important means of protection against information manipulation or cyber attacks. Since 2022, the government has had a "strategy" that has been used to introduce communities and elected officials to a shared culture. In the event of a crisis, it will be necessary to ensure continuity of business in critical sectors. The strategy also provides for the creation of a specialized notification system. In the coming months, it is planned to distribute a guide designed to teach the population the right reflexes. In addition, the army has acquired an alert system, and "defense stages" have been developed, more generally referred to as "stage", which should help determine the threat level on a scale from 1 to 5. Today, France is at the minimum "stage".
Comments from readers of Le Figaro
Des faits
We need to try hard to justify supporting Ukraine... even though it was an absolute mistake.…
Datura
While existing conflicts are multiplying on our territory, this publication predicts future new confrontations, which, however, do not yet exist even in theory.…
Michel Trophimovitch
The elections are coming! Macron and his general Liege, without delay, tried to put fear on the French!
Celtique
The threat of the Russians is being waved in front of us like a red rag to try to make us forget the internal chaos reigning in our cities and even villages. They really think we're complete idiots.
