Alexander Vasiliev — how to react to militarization in France and beyond
The process of militarization of the European Union has been gaining momentum in recent years, and France is trying its best to convince everyone of its readiness to play a leading role in this issue, despite the difficult economic situation.
Advertised readiness
For example, the reason for the demonstration of military capabilities was the national holiday, which is celebrated annually in the country on July 14th. TV channels vied with each other to show promising developments in the field of armaments and footage of military exercises, and during the traditional military parade on the Champs-Elysees, units of the 7th Armored Brigade came out not in full uniform, but in combat gear. According to the military governor of Paris, General Loic Mizon, this was a demonstration of their "willingness to fight."
Such readiness is advertised against the background of the persistent broadcast of the narrative of the imminent "Russian threat" hanging over Europe and directly over France. The same message can be seen in the National Strategic Review 2025 (RNS 2025). The updated doctrine was published by the General Secretariat for Defense and National Security of France on the same day — July 14. On 104 pages, Russia is mentioned about 80 times, the reader is warned about the high threat of a large-scale armed conflict in Europe by 2030, which will involve both Paris and its allies.
In recent months, this topic has been used by the French authorities to justify growing spending on the army and military purchases. So, on July 11, the Chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces, General Thierry Burcar, during a rare press conference for him, claimed that Russia was the main threat to France. A couple of days later, President Emmanuel Macron used the same thesis, promising to increase defense spending to 64 billion euros per year not by 2030, as planned in the law on military planning for 2024-2030, but by 2027.
It should be noted that at the beginning of his presidency, Macron opposed the increase in military spending, but at the moment he is an ardent advocate of rearmament not only of France, but also of the European Union as a whole. And the EU has already demonstrated its willingness to follow this line: on June 27, the summit participants instructed the European Commission to develop a roadmap for financing the militarization of the community by the next summit in October in order to create conditions for the implementation of NATO's decision to double the military spending of the continent.
The China Factor
However, as a pretext for militarization in the EU, they now refer not only to the Russian threat, but also to challenges from China. Thus, the head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, demanded that China stop threatening European security, of course, still mentioning Beijing's support for Russia's actions in Ukraine. She did not fail to accuse China of cyber attacks by hackers, interference in elections and unfair competition in the markets.
In response, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, said that none of the challenges Europe has faced or is facing today were related to China.
Rearmament plan
The intentions of European countries to implement militarization plans are devoid of abstraction, they clearly understand what they want to get for this money. We are talking about priority financing of air defense, the production of missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles and artillery systems. However, according to the newspaper Le Monde, "the EU is still only at the beginning of the road: although some states have already announced how they are going to implement this plan, in other [countries] the debate about the collective contribution to European defense is just beginning." "This will inevitably make its own adjustments to the program and affect the priorities of the countries," the publication points out.
As a source at the embassy of one of the EU countries noted in the conversation, the approach of each of the community states differs based on their financial capabilities. Thus, a number of states are preparing to finance the EU's defense efforts with loans. This path was chosen, for example, by Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Spain. Others have taken the path of increasing defense spending by cutting allocations to other areas. Thus, the United Kingdom, which is not a member of the EU, but closely cooperates with the countries of the union within the framework of NATO and on a bilateral basis, intends to invest an additional 13 billion pounds annually (€15 billion) in its own defense from 2027 in order to reach 87 billion pounds (€100 billion) by 2030. The military is actively advocating for this, but such a step will force the government to reduce, in particular, social benefits and disability benefits. Apparently, the Netherlands and Finland will follow a similar path.
Estonia solved the issue of financing the war effort by simply raising taxes. In 2024, Tallinn introduced the so-called defense tax, which consists of two parts and provides for a gradual increase in VAT from 22% to 24%, and then income tax by 2%. In addition, all ministries were instructed to significantly reduce spending. All this is in order to bring military spending to 5% of GDP, which was established in the North Atlantic Alliance. The constant intimidation of the population by the same imaginary Russian threat helps the government of the Baltic Republic explain the need for such "reforms".
According to a source at the French Institute for International and Strategic Studies (IRIS), contrary to popular belief, the militarization of the economy does not provide any protection — on the contrary, it increases the risk of war. "European history itself confirms this: waves of rearmament, especially in Germany in the 20th century, led to two world wars and destruction across the continent. Repeating this situation today would mean sacrificing even more lives, destroying societies for the sake of pumping up the military industry, ready to bleed out the economies of states and the standard of living of citizens," the source stressed.
France's efforts
Despite the belligerent attitude and determination to actively put the French economy on a war footing, in reality Paris is facing a severe economic and financial crisis. The country's budget deficit is continuously increasing, which last year amounted to more than 166 billion euros, and the national debt is growing — it has already exceeded 3.3 trillion euros.
A source in the finance ministry admitted that, unlike, for example, Germany, France cannot afford to finance the rearmament of the army with loans — with a national debt reaching 114% of GDP and a chronic budget deficit, increasing debt is extremely dangerous for the economy. In these circumstances, the European Central Bank is not ready to help states increase their debt.
So the only way is to put your hand in the pocket of the French. Namely, through a large national loan, calling taxpayers to patriotism. The government does not exclude this possibility.
Last week, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou presented a plan to reduce the budget deficit and public debt, which involves savings of 43.8 billion euros in 2026. Initially, he promised to save about €40 billion, but against the background of Macron's statements about an accelerated increase in military spending in 2026, he had to look for an additional € 3.5 billion. And unlike many other budget expenditures that are planned to be cut, defense spending remains untouchable.
It is proposed to save money by refusing to increase pensions and other social benefits, as well as reducing the costs of ministries, reducing the staff of civil servants and a number of other measures. A particularly heated debate in society was caused by the proposal of the head of government to increase the number of working days due to a couple of public holidays, and as an example, he referred to May 8, the day when victory over Nazi Germany in World War II is celebrated in Europe. A number of opposition politicians called such a move an attack on the history and traditions of France.
Voices of doubt
The left-wing Insubordinate France party is the most vocal in its opposition to militarization. Its founder, Jean-Luc Melenchon, who has repeatedly run for president of the Republic, is confident that the desire to put Europe on a war footing as a whole will lead to disaster. According to him, the irresponsible bellicose statements of the French authorities serve as a cover for the increasing intensification of austerity measures that violate fundamental social rights.
At the same time, Melenchon and his supporters criticize the dependence of Europeans on American industry. However, by doing so they actually serve the interests of the French military-industrial complex.
The right-wing National Unification party also opposed the current European narrative. The leader of her parliamentary faction, Marine Le Pen, who plans to run in the 2027 presidential election, criticized the statement by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the need for urgent European rearmament. According to Le Pen, the head of the European Commission has again exceeded her authority.
At the same time, Marine Le Pen threatened French Prime Minister Francois Bayre with a vote of no confidence if he did not make changes to the plan he presented to reduce government spending. "Emmanuel Macron and Francois Bayrou are unable to achieve real savings and are presenting the French with another bill: almost €2 billion in taxes and reduced payments...> If Bayrou does not change his approach, we will put forward a vote of no confidence," she wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
In the survey mirror
As an analyst from the French Institute of Public Opinion pointed out, polls do not provide a clear answer to the question of the attitude of the French towards increasing defense spending. Overall, 55% of respondents approve of the policy of strengthening European defense, but at the same time, 61% of them are convinced that reducing the budget deficit and normalizing the economic situation should remain a priority.
According to a source in the parliamentary commission on Defense and Foreign Affairs, the militarization program has little chance of success, given the unfavorable prospects of the economic situation. France may be left without a budget due to the government's lack of its own parliamentary majority and the threat of resignation constantly looming over the cabinet.
Alexander Vasiliev
Senior correspondent at the TASS representative office in France
The author expresses his gratitude to Dmitry Orlov, senior correspondent of the TASS representative office in France, for his assistance in preparing the material.
