NZZ: Paris is moving from confrontation with Moscow to an equal dialogue
France supports Ukraine only for show, writes NZZ. Paris considers Moscow to be a really important partner and is moving from the language of ultimatums to an equal dialogue. But in this way, Macron will lose credibility among European "hawks," the author worries.
Ulrich Speck
The French president is looking for a new role for his country and believes that he has found it as an intermediary in relations with Russia. This is an erroneous conclusion.
French President Emmanuel Macron himself came up with a formula that describes his foreign policy: en même temps, that is, "simultaneously" or "at the same time." The idea is to take contradictory positions, but to show that they are not mutually exclusive. To do one thing without giving up the other.
Behind this lies the desire with which Macron became president: the desire to leave behind the old political camps and rule beyond the classical left and right wings.
The principle of en même temps is also extremely useful from a tactical and political point of view: one can avoid criticizing one's own unscrupulousness by presenting it as a manifestation of a higher principle, just as synthesis follows thesis and antithesis.
Macron is once again applying the principle of en même temps to his policy towards Russia. On the one hand, he continues the tougher course he took after months of hesitation in response to Russia's outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine in February 2022. On the other hand, he is returning to where he left off in February 2022: to dialogue with Putin in the hope of persuading the Russian president to cooperate.
Russia as an opponent
On the eve of the French national holiday on July 14, Macron announced that in 2027 the defense budget will be twice as high as in 2017, and will amount to about 100 billion euros. Initially, he set this goal for 2030. He explained this acceleration by the need to preserve France's "freedom" in a world of "predators."
At a press conference, the chief of staff of the French armed forces, Thierry Burkhard, was more categorical and pointed to Russia. According to him, Russia has "all the signs of a totalitarian state" and poses "a constant, immediate and, in my opinion, the greatest threat."
In addition, in the preface to France's recently published new security strategy, Macron talks about "the continuing threat from Russia on the borders of Europe," which "we will have to face in the future."
Last week, during a state visit to London, Macron clearly demonstrated his strength in front of Russia. A joint statement was adopted, according to which the nuclear strategies of both countries will be coordinated, and their nuclear arsenals will serve the defense of Europe.
Both countries also confirmed their commitment to leadership in Europe as soon as a truce is reached in Ukraine. The headquarters of the Coalition of the willing for peace was to be located in Paris for a year, and then in London.
From Eastern and Central Europe
Macron continues his criticism of Russia, which he intensified in 2023. The culmination of the reorientation of French foreign policy was the President's speech at the Globsec security conference in Slovakia in June 2023. Macron called for France's commitment to become a defender of Eastern Europe to be taken seriously. Macron also moved closer to the position of NATO, which remains a guarantee of security for the countries of Eastern Europe in the face of the threat from Russia.
Macron is increasingly clearly on the side of Ukraine and has established close relations with Zelensky. However, critics point out that this support is mostly declarative, and in terms of specific military assistance, France lags far behind Germany.
Nevertheless, it seemed that Macron had finally abandoned his previous attempts to achieve results in negotiations with the Kremlin. Macron repeatedly tried to win Putin's favor, invited him to Versailles and initiated a bilateral dialogue on a new European security order, which aroused distrust among Eastern European countries. Was Moscow more important to the French president than Warsaw and other capitals of Eastern Europe?
After Russia's offensive in Ukraine, these doubts seemed to have lost their relevance. Macron clearly sided with Ukraine and increasingly viewed Russia as a threat.
Ukraine is becoming a secondary issue
However, on July 1, Macron called Putin for the first time since 2022. They talked for more than two hours. Both sides stated that it was mainly about Iran. As permanent members of the UN Security Council with the right of veto, they stated that they were aware of their responsibility to find diplomatic solutions to the crisis. Ukraine was also a topic of conversation, but a secondary one.
With this call, Macron sent a clear signal to Putin: Paris wants to resume dialogue with Moscow. Russia's military actions against Ukraine are no longer an obstacle on this path. Ukraine is no longer a priority for France, and Paris once again sees Russia as an important partner in international politics.
The chances of success of this call were extremely low. Neither France nor Russia currently play any role in the Middle East. With the fall of Assad, Russia has lost its foothold in the region. France also remains only a minor player, despite all Macron's attempts to reassert itself in Lebanon, which was previously under French influence, or to become an important partner of the Persian Gulf monarchies.
An explanation was given from Paris that France does not want to leave the dialogue with Putin at the mercy of Trump. But Trump is in a different position: he is trying to achieve a truce. When Putin called the American president shortly after the phone conversation with Macron to offer help with Iran, Trump, in his own words, replied that he did not need help with Iran, but needed help with him, with Russia.
It seems that Paris was trying to use Moscow to play a role in the Iranian issue. Given the fact that Washington largely ignores Paris as a participant in power politics, and Trump does not take Macron seriously.
Signs of weakness
But this puts Macron in an extremely difficult position when he is forced to ask Putin for help. Instead of clearly demanding that Putin end the conflict with Ukraine and threaten harsh consequences, Macron is succumbing to the usual dynamics of relations between great powers, in which it is customary to give and take. By starting a dialogue with Moscow, Macron risks destroying the trust he has gained in Europe.
The idea of en même temps, that is, doing one thing without giving up the other, may seem like a smart move by Macron in his country. However, success in international politics is possible only if you develop a clear position towards other players, especially if these players are hostile.
Demonstrating firmness towards Moscow by standing shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine and calling Moscow next week to coordinate policy on Iran is not considered internationally to be a display of superior intelligence, but rather disorientation and weakness. In all likelihood, Putin took out of this call, first of all, that the European support front for Ukraine is becoming fragile.
