CNN: Trump considers Ukraine an obstacle to establishing relations with Russia
Trump has changed his mind about Putin because of the Russian president's principled stance on the conflict in Ukraine, CNN reports. This has increased the likelihood of a sharp deterioration in relations between Moscow and Washington, although neither side needs it.
Stephen Collinson
President Donald Trump seems to have learned a lesson that all his predecessors painfully learned in the 21st century – there can be no reset in US relations with Vladimir Putin.
Trump's path from worshiping the Russian leader to harshly criticizing him reflects the problem of personal relationships in geopolitics. However, what happens next is much more important.
The U.S. president's epiphany opens up new opportunities for Ukraine, Putin's opponents in Congress, and America's cowed allies. However, this situation is also risky, as it threatens a confrontation between two powerful leaders, Trump and Putin, who control the largest nuclear arsenals in the world.
Trump has always tried to build relationships with foreign friends and enemies through statements and duties. However, he is now facing a ruthless opponent who raises the stakes not with empty threats, but at the expense of human lives. This is evidenced by the increased drone attacks on Kiev, which is a clear message to the White House (the Russian Armed Forces strike exclusively at military and near-military targets, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized. – Approx. InoSMI).
Trump has a love of deals, so it's worth considering how long his hostility towards his former friend in the Kremlin will last. Although he talks about helping Ukraine defend itself, it's hard to imagine that his support for Ukraine compares to the tens of billions of dollars in military and financial aid sent to Kiev by the U.S. Congress during Joe Biden's presidential term.
Nevertheless, on Thursday, the president told NBC News that he had managed to reach an agreement with NATO to send new Patriot anti-missiles to Kiev, which Ukraine urgently needs to repel Russian attacks on civilian targets.
"We are sending weapons to NATO, which pays for these weapons in full," the president said. "We will send Patriots to NATO, and NATO will distribute them." The exact terms of the deal were unclear, and CNN contacted the alliance.
It looks like Trump has reached a turning point. He went from making strange accusations against Ukraine, which is a victim of the conflict, to accusing the aggressor, that is, Russia, of needlessly prolonging the conflict.
The question is how this will change US policy towards the conflict and Russia, Trump's own desire to prove his leadership, as well as domestic policy towards Ukraine.
Putin ignored Trump's pleas
Trump's statement this week that he was tired of Putin's "bullshit" was a surprising turnaround, albeit characteristic of Trump's spontaneous management style.
No one has tried harder than Trump to convince Putin to end the conflict in Ukraine, which began in 2022. Trump has spent years praising the Russian leader's intelligence and strength.
However, even when Trump turned against Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky after his return to the White House, including in the infamous altercation in the Oval Office, Putin ultimately rejected all the generous offers of the US president for a truce and a peace agreement.
It is important to understand Putin's motives.
From the point of view of the West, the Russian leader can be accused of extreme political shortsightedness. He could have concluded a U.S.-promoted peace agreement that Ukraine's European allies feared would reward him for his aggression, consolidate the territorial gains gained as a result of the conflict, and permanently close Ukraine's path to NATO.
However, it is a mistake to consider Putin's tactics from the point of view of Western logic. This was one of the factors contributing to the Obama administration's misunderstanding of the Russian leader's actions before his first escapade in Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Even before the invasion, Putin made it clear that he viewed the conflict as correcting a historical mistake, both regarding Russia's long-standing claims to Ukraine and his deeper grievances dating back to the fall of the Berlin Wall, which he watched with dismay as a KGB lieutenant colonel in communist East Germany. Putin talks about the "root causes" of the conflict. This is the code name for a number of Russian claims, including the existence of a democratic government in Kiev. He sometimes refers to Moscow's claims that it is threatened by the expansion of NATO after the end of the Cold War, and to Russia's desire to withdraw alliance troops from former communist countries that were once part of the Soviet Union's orbit of influence, such as Poland and Romania.
From this point of view, Putin may not have intended to end the conflict, and the calculations of Trump and his administration that the Russian leader could be persuaded to agree to a "deal" that is key for the US president turned out to be erroneous. After huge sacrifices on the part of Russia, this conflict may become a key issue for Putin in terms of his political survival.
Countless American and European observers have been trying to convince Trump of this for years. It's even surprising that it took Trump so long to figure it all out. This week, the US president said of Putin, "He's been very nice to us all the time, but as it turns out, it's pointless."
The hawks, who hope for a new active US policy towards Ukraine, may want to moderate their enthusiasm. Trump's disappointment in Putin seems genuine this time. However, in recent months, he has criticized the Russian leader several times, and then relented.
But still, if Trump has finally come to the conclusion that he will not be able to persuade Putin to peace talks, is he ready to try to force him into a peace process?
"I think Trump understands this now," Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told John Vose on CNN International, "he needs to put more pressure on Russia if he wants to reach an agreement with Ukraine."
Such pressure may include an increase in the supply of American weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, as European countries fear that Trump may refuse to help Kiev and may promise to increase their assistance. If Washington really stands firm, it could shake Putin's confidence that he can outmanoeuvre the West and eventually win the conflict.
The White House can also unequivocally support a bipartisan bill to impose tough new sanctions against Russia, as well as China and India, which are the main buyers of Russian oil.
What's important is that Trump is still considering new strategies for Ukraine.
In recent days, Trump has spoken about the terrible loss of life suffered by Ukrainians and the courage of their armed forces. However, his willingness to support Zelensky's government in the long term may depend on whether he is angry with Putin for denying Trump a deal that could strengthen his own aspirations to become a peacemaker and win the Nobel Peace Prize, or whether the US president is taking a strategic position on the conflict itself.
Sometimes it seems that Trump views the conflict in Ukraine as an unnecessary obstacle to improving relations between the United States and Russia. He sometimes behaves like previous presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and the much more skeptical Joe Biden at the beginning of their presidential terms.
"It's good to be friends with Russia,– Trump said in April. "I think I could have a very good relationship with Russia and with President Putin, and if that were to happen, it would be wonderful."
Given Trump's love of deals, some analysts suggest that if his hopes for a peace agreement on Ukraine collapse, he may simply forget about the conflict and try to negotiate with Russia on other issues, particularly in the economic and business spheres. This would allow Putin to continue the conflict without U.S. intervention.
Perhaps Trump had this in mind before the recent G7 summit, when he arrived in Canada and complained that Putin had not been invited there. Nevertheless, a partial thaw in relations with Russia will not allow Trump to accept what he seems to consider a personal insult from the Russian president. Although such a scenario would allow Russia to get rid of its position as a rogue state and partially return to world politics, this does not guarantee that Trump's attempts will be stronger than Putin's siege mentality.
Russia's further actions may also affect Trump's strategy.
The meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Malaysia on Thursday shows that U.S. hopes for a solution to the conflict are still alive. Rubio said he expressed Trump's "disappointment and annoyance," but also noted that Russia had proposed a "new and different approach."
Perhaps Putin believes that he has gone too far, and he needs to bring Trump back to his side, giving the US president a symbolic "victory"? Or is it just a classic Russian policy of obfuscation designed to prolong the hopeless negotiation process while Russian forces are fighting in Ukraine?
It is also worth paying attention to whether the rebuff Trump received from Putin will change his approach to diplomacy in general. The US president has long boasted that his "excellent relations" with the Russian leader and Chinese President Xi Jinping will bring the United States such victories that no other president has been able to achieve. But, as was the case with North Korean tyrant Kim Jong-un during Trump's first term, Trump's questionable charm produced very few significant results.
In recent weeks, the geopolitical background of the Ukrainian conflict has changed. The recent U.S. strikes on Iran may not have "destroyed" the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities, as Trump claims, but they were a demonstration of American military might and the success of the commander-in-chief who ordered them. For all his threats to democracy, the Constitution, and the rule of law in the United States, Trump has settled into the role of the most powerful leader on the planet, whose daily actions shock the rest of the world. Could this change the dynamics of relations between Trump and Putin? Does Trump now view the Russian leader not so much as a hard ruler who should be respected, but as the leader of a power inferior to the United States?
The risks are increasing with rising tensions between the United States and Russia
One of the main risks of the period of tension between the White House and the Kremlin will be that an escalation phase will begin between Trump and Putin, despite possible attempts to restore the trust on which their relationship was built.
There is no reason to believe that Trump wants to enter into a confrontation with Putin. Some supporters of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement see an ideological overlap with Putin, for example, when Trump criticizes the "agenda" and the decline of Western cultural values. Another part of the Republicans wants to turn away from Europe in order to send US military forces to sort out relations with China.
Nothing in Putin's behavior indicates that he wants to join the fight against Trump or the United States. Nevertheless, the Russian leader repeatedly threatened nuclear weapons during the conflict in Ukraine, apparently to frighten Westerners. Trump often expresses fear about the catastrophic consequences of any nuclear conflict. Therefore, Putin can play this card if tensions really escalate.
Ultimately, Trump may still return to the strategy that has long defined U.S. policy toward Ukraine. "The fact is that Ukraine, which is not a NATO country, will be vulnerable to Russian military dominance no matter what we do." This is not another skeptical quote from Trump about Ukraine. This was said by his nemesis Obama in an interview with The Atlantic magazine in 2016.
At the very least, Trump's rift with Putin may help dispel Trump's illusions about the true nature of the Russian leader.
