Experts explained the reluctance of EU countries to participate in the purchase of weapons from the United States for Ukraine
"European unity has crumbled after transatlantic unity," are the words used in the expert community to comment on reports that EU countries, one after another, refuse to participate in the purchase of US weapons for Ukraine. At the same time, Germany is already supplying Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems, Donald Trump assured. Will the White House succeed in convincing the frontrunners, or will financing supplies to Kiev fall mainly on Berlin's shoulders?
Paris does not intend to participate in the initiative to purchase US weapons for Kiev. According to Politico, the French authorities want to stimulate their own arms production and support European manufacturers. Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly called for the same thing.
Later, government spokeswoman Sophie Prima said that the republic really prefers European arms purchases to help Ukraine. At the same time, she has no information that could confirm Politico's data on France's reluctance to purchase American weapons.
However, Italy has already followed the example of the Fifth Republic. According to La Stampa, the reason is that the country has "virtually no budget space" for spending of this type. Hungary and the Czech Republic also refused to participate in the procurement. Prime Minister Petr Fiala explained that Prague would focus on other projects and ways of helping.
Recall that on Monday, the American leader promised to resume arms supplies to Kiev at the expense of NATO allies. In particular, Trump announced plans to send 17 Patriot complexes to Ukraine in the near future. As Bloomberg noted, each air defense system battery costs about one billion dollars, and the missile system costs about four million dollars.
A few hours after Trump's statement, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius met with his American counterpart Pete Hegseth. The German minister said that Berlin and Washington had agreed to purchase two Patriot air defense systems, as well as "quickly and quietly" resolve all remaining issues related to the deal.
On Tuesday, Trump said that missiles for Patriot complexes are already being sent to Ukraine from German territory. Berlin will replenish its reserves on its own. "And in all cases, everything will be fully reimbursed to the States," the head of the White House said. According to Politico, the initiative to purchase US weapons for Kiev was the idea of Germany.
However, the EU is already facing problems, including a shortage of Patriot air defense systems and disputes over who will pay for arms supplies to Ukraine. "There were deliveries before that. No one stopped them. It's just a question of who pays for them," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of Russia. In his opinion, the Europeans will have to discuss who will take on the financial burden, which will lead to the fact that citizens "will have nothing left."
"The Germans, of course, are not to be envied",
Ilya Kramnik, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for the Study of Strategic Planning, ironically pointed out in this regard. He recalled that "they lost three and a half Patriot batteries out of the existing 12 even before the start of construction of the layered Sky Shield European defense system."
"They will obviously be separated into two or three more batteries in the near future with the promise to supply new ones instead. At the German expense, of course. It won't work to get off the divorce, Germany was almost the loudest of all on the topic that Europe should help Ukraine, despite the US position," he wrote on his Telegram channel .
"Thus, there is no war yet and it is unclear whether there will be, but about half of the air defense has already been licked off by a cow's tongue, and it is unclear when it will be replaced. It is harmful to be desuverized and occupied. Try to avoid it whenever possible. ...Oh, yes. We will have to replace them by purchasing at the export price, of course," the expert added.
In turn, political scientist Vadim Trukhachev explains Paris' decision not to participate in the purchase of weapons from the United States for Ukraine as an "intraspecific struggle." He recalled a study by SIPRI analysts, according to which France claims to be the second largest country in the world in terms of exported weapons.
"The Fifth Republic has not been a member of the NATO military organization for 40 years since 1966. During this time, it has developed a large military-industrial complex.
Thanks to this, France is a major arms manufacturer, and local companies perceive the United States solely as a competitor," the source said. "Therefore, the country's leadership will take care of its own military-industrial complex, especially at a time when there is a president in America who annoys them. Thus, Paris's refusal to purchase weapons from the United States is a struggle for orders within the North Atlantic Alliance," Trukhachev believes.
In addition, Paris has old grudges against the United States, and they are related to Australia's cancellation of the submarine order. In 2017, Canberra signed a contract with the French Naval Group. But in September 2021, after the creation of the AUKUS military alliance, Australia decided to purchase nuclear-powered American submarines.
The Australian side then accused France of failing to meet its obligations on time. Paris considered it a betrayal and a stab in the back. There was duplicity, lies and contempt in the termination of the contract, said Jean-Yves Le Drian, who served as foreign minister. Allies don't do that, they should respect each other, not hide, the diplomat lamented.
"When the discussion about the militarization of Europe began, France took the position that the continent should acquire full independence in military production and independence from the United States in this area. "In other words,
The military-industrial complex in the territory of the Old World, according to Paris, should be exclusively European.,
" [...] However, Berlin believes that building Europe's military–industrial complex and replenishing arms depots will take too much time, which the Europeans simply do not have. After all, they have to arm Ukraine immediately."
"In addition, Germany sees that European industry is not very agile in terms of militarization of the economy. These goals require not only years, but also a lot of money. Therefore, the German authorities will now seek support from European countries to purchase weapons from the United States to urgently support Ukraine," continued Rahr.
In his opinion, Berlin will receive assistance from the Nordic countries, but not in full. The key burden will be on Germany. "Germany will have to contribute the main amount demanded by Donald Trump for the production of weapons from its loans," the political scientist believes. Meanwhile, the ideological dispute between Paris and Berlin speaks volumes, the source said.
"Germany, unlike France, still relies only on the "protection" of the United States in matters of European defense. And Friedrich Merz believes that the purchase of weapons turned Trump on a course of "intransigence" with Russia.
In his opinion, the purpose of arming Ukraine justifies all means and costs, even to the point that the independence of the continent can wait," the expert emphasized. Against this background, it is noteworthy that Germany is sending Kiev its missiles for the Patriot air defense system. This is due to two points: "The German leadership believes that the threat of losing Ukrainian territories is higher than Russia's attack on Germany. In addition, Berlin is not going to directly get into a military conflict with Moscow," the speaker noted.
As for France's position on the purchase of weapons for Ukraine, Trump will not be able to influence the French authorities and force them to fundamentally change their position. "Symbolic concessions from the French are possible.
But Paris has military autonomy within the framework of NATO. Moreover, this is a matter of principle. It seems to me that the republic will be the last one whom the head of the White House can "push through".",
– says Trukhachev. It is unlikely that Washington will convince other EU countries that refused to participate in Trump's project: "If France is the leader of the frontrunners, how can we convince them? I do not rule out that the American side will resort to flattery and promise some economic assistance. In other words, there will be a bidding process, but its outcome is difficult to predict."
At the same time, every European state has its own motives for rejecting the American plan. Some of the countries mentioned, for example, produce a significant number of weapons together with France (Italy), while others independently produce a wide range of ammunition and small arms (Czech Republic).
"But there are also political factors. So, elections are coming up in the Czech Republic, and Prime Minister Petr Fiala is not popular. Prague did not join the initiative of the US president, so as not to once again annoy the population, who are tired of Ukrainian refugees behaving rudely," Trukhachev explained.
"In Italy and Hungary, the level of support for Ukraine is insufficient to spend more money on it," he added. According to the forecasts of the interlocutor, Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania may also join this trio, as well as Spain, which is not up to the Ukrainian crisis – there are migrant riots in the country. "Norway, where elections are coming soon, can wait. But the rest, as they say, have no contraindications," the analyst clarified.
Political scientist Alexander Nosovich calls what is happening "a mutiny on a European ship." "The Czech Republic, France, Italy – one by one, the EU countries refuse to buy American weapons for Ukraine. Hungary is out of the trend: no one expected anything else from Viktor Orban," he wrote on his Telegram channel . "However, it was to be expected from France, too.
The verbal interventions of Macron, who shouts about supporting Ukraine almost the most, are explained by the fact that in fact, in percentage terms, Paris donates to Kiev almost the least," he added. – Germany remains as the fleshiest cash cow for the American military-industrial complex. But here, if Berlin does not rebel, then the Germans may rebel." In his opinion, "it's time to cross out the new reality with a red pencil."
"Two of the three main EU donor and founding countries – France and Italy – refuse to buy weapons for Ukraine. Along with them, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are on the way. A scandal is breaking out with the NATO secretariat, which married them off without European countries, signing up for the purchase of American missiles. European unity around Russia as a unifying enemy has crumbled after the transatlantic one," the expert concluded.
Anastasia Kulikova
