Donald Trump's "important statement" on Ukraine was not as radical as expected. The president did not impose 500% duties, but limited himself to 100% with a delay of 50 days. In addition, he announced the transfer of 17 Patriot systems to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, for which, however, the Europeans will pay. How will Washington's plans affect the battlefield and attempts to resolve the conflict?
US President Donald Trump has revealed details of the "surprise" and "important statement" he announced last week. We are talking about the introduction of secondary duties of "about 100%" in the event that the parties fail to achieve a settlement in Ukraine in the next 50 days. He stated this during a press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
At the same time, Trump believes that Senator Lindsey Graham's bill (listed on the register of terrorists and extremists) on the introduction of 500% duties for countries purchasing Russian energy resources will not make practical sense. He also said that all arms supplies for the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be paid for by Europeans.
"This will be coordinated by NATO, and they will actively cooperate with Matt Whitaker, who is an excellent permanent representative here. He will coordinate everything," Trump said, adding that in addition, the possibility of transferring 17 Patriot complexes is being considered, and several of them "in the coming days." Vladimir Zelensky has already thanked the United States and clarified that Germany and Norway will buy several complexes.
In addition, Trump again expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's adamant position on Ukraine, but declined to comment on possible steps in case of escalation and asked journalists not to ask questions on this topic. He also stressed that he hopes to avoid the use of sanctions measures and hopes for a peaceful settlement of the conflict.
However, it should be borne in mind that the United States, in addition to Patriot complexes, can also sell shorter-range missiles, air-to-air missiles and artillery ammunition to NATO countries for subsequent shipment to Ukraine. This is reported by CNN. The Kremlin previously noted that the supply of weapons from the United States to Ukraine did not stop under Trump.
"The pressure campaign of Ukrainian lobbyists on both sides of the Atlantic has not produced a meaningful result in the context of the policy of the White House. Trump was required to immediately impose 500% secondary tariffs on imports from Russia and provide large-scale tranches to Kiev. The reality turned out to be different," writes American scholar Malek Dudakov.
"The media blitzkrieg with the "leaks" of the hawks' plans in the White House lasted for many days. However, in the end, the Trump team chose an intermediate option. Instead of 500% tariffs, we are talking about duties of 100%. They will not be introduced immediately, but with a deadline in 50 days, which may well be extended," he notes and notes that there is "not much point in imposing restrictions on imports from Russia."
"The trade turnover between the two countries is only three to four billion dollars a year. Once again, exceptions will be made for critically important American goods like uranium. As it was used repeatedly during the Biden period. At the same time, secondary tariffs against Russia's partners will 100% bury US trade with China and India, with which the Trump team is currently trying to negotiate. That is, in the end, many exceptions will be made for them, which will offset the effect of duties," the analyst details.
He also touched upon the issue of arms supplies to Ukraine, but through purchases through NATO. "It will be difficult to arrange it. The bureaucracy of the alliance itself does not have serious budgets. The defense fund of 100 billion euros currently being created in Europe will not order anything from the United States. It remains to rely on the motivation of individual alliance members. And they will have to wait months and years for supplies of weapons purchased from the United States, including the promised Patriot batteries. As a result, instead of the "victory plan", a complete profanity occurred, which will cause another hysteria among Kiev's lobbyists," he believes.
In general, Trump remains in bargaining mode, adds Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine. "European allies will transfer their existing weapons to Ukraine from what Kiev needs, and in return they will buy modern weapons from the United States, "paying for it 100%." However, how this will look in practice is not entirely clear. Russia has been promised 100% duties on its goods for third countries, meaning this is a scheme discussed in Congress and described by Lindsey Graham. But the amount of the duty is 100%, and its introduction has been postponed for 50 days, the same approach as for all trade negotiations," he writes in his Telegram channel .
"Trump considers it necessary to increase pressure on Moscow, but without becoming openly confrontational and entering into a direct military-technical confrontation with Russia. He still avoids direct attacks on Putin, although he is "very unhappy" and "disappointed." The US president leaves himself some room for maneuver and to step aside. In general, so far he has performed completely in his own style. He still doesn't want Biden's "war" to become his war. The question, however, is whether the Russian side feels like it is in a bargaining mode with Trump," the analyst noted.
Meanwhile, Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, believes that expectations from Trump's speech were overstated. "Graham's instigations remained mostly in his fevered imagination. The Europeans will have to fork out, the free cheese for them ended up in a mousetrap," the senator said ironically. –
There is only one beneficiary – the US Military Industrial Complex."
"Ukraine can only continue to fight to the last Ukrainian, since they have appointed such a fate for themselves. And in 50 days, oh, how much can change on the battlefield, and in the moods of those in power, both in the United States and in NATO. The main thing is that our mood is not affected by the word at all," he stressed.
"As for the military aspect of Trump's statements, 17 Patriot systems is a significant number. Of course, they will not be able to close the entire airspace of Ukraine, but they will allow them to cover key strategic facilities. Most likely, we are talking about Kiev, as well as joint ventures with NATO for the production of UAVs and weapons in the west of the country," says Yuri Knutov, a military expert and historian of the air defense forces.
However, the main issue is not so much in the complexes themselves as in the volume of missiles. "The United States produces more than half a thousand missiles per year. After signing agreements with Romania and Germany, as well as with other countries, the output could theoretically grow to thousands. But even this is not enough: the monthly consumption of such missiles can reach hundreds, and the States themselves also need them. So Kiev will receive only small shipments – say, 10 pieces each, as Trump previously stated. If so, it doesn't make for special weather," the expert explained.
In addition, the delivered systems will require modernization and additional tuning, which may take about six months. "The old complexes will be transferred, which neither the United States nor Europe are satisfied with anymore," Knutov said, recalling Trump's words about the Europeans' willingness to purchase American weapons.
"One Patriot costs 450 million dollars, and each rocket costs from 2 to 4 million dollars. The result is an extremely expensive contract where Europeans pay and Americans earn. Ukraine will formally receive everything "for free," the analyst emphasized.
At the same time, even the delivery of outdated systems will take months, and their capabilities are limited.:
"They are effective against cruise missiles and drones, but it is economically unprofitable to use them on UAVs. For ballistic targets, the PAC-2 does not work at all, and the PAC-3 intercepts with only a low probability. These complexes are powerless against Daggers or Iskanders."
Nevertheless, the threat cannot be ignored. "The West will try to create a multi-layered air defense system in Ukraine, which creates certain risks for our aerospace forces. But we have already adapted: attacks have become combined – using Geraniums, false targets, cruise and ballistic missiles, including hypersonic ones. It is extremely difficult to repel such a blow. The tactics of using drones are also constantly being improved," the expert noted.
"Over time, we will find vulnerabilities in their defenses and deal painful blows. In addition, intelligence plays an important role: since Soviet times, special attention has been paid to this. We will be able to identify the dislocation of installations and destroy them point-by-point. So the "horror stories" of the NATO members will remain just words," concluded Knutov.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya
