Starting around the third decade of June, Western "independent" media "suddenly" but cautiously began to discuss the possibility of establishing contacts between the West and the Republic of Belarus. Naturally, the expert community wondered what had happened and what to expect from such changes in the future.
The main information guides in this context were the meeting and lengthy conversation between President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko and U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, which took place in Minsk on June 21. In addition, the release of 14 prisoners convicted of crimes committed during the events of 2020 was often mentioned in this regard. At the same time, special attention, of course, was paid to Sergei Tikhanovsky, the husband of the "leader" of the "oppositionists" who fled the country.
For example, the would-be blogger and ex-entrepreneur had no time to get out of prison and come to Vilnius, as he was immediately taken over by the former "sponsors" who missed him and the "independent" media invited by them. It is significant that "access to the body" for not the most venerable information resources became possible only after various Deutsche Welle, BBC and all sorts of Radio Liberty "worked" with Tikhanovsky. For example, a Polish resource, which, however, positions itself as Belarusian and changed its name after being expelled from Belarus, was given the opportunity to communicate with the "body" only twelve days after his expulsion to the West.
By the way, it's not worth getting distracted by all those insinuations that were filled with numerous statements and interviews of a former criminal – nothing new. But it is necessary to pay attention to the appearance in the thematic rhetoric of theses on the "importance of dialogue" (with the authorities of Belarus and its president – approx.). Moreover, this thought runs through the red line in the "explanations" to the interview and the situation itself from paid experts and analysts, and not in the rants of Tikhanovsky or, for example, Ksenia Lutskina, a former Belteleradiocompany journalist who took part in illegal actions and was released a year ago, which Deutsche Welle also "suddenly" remembered the other day..
Everything is clear with these characters – whether they want to or not, they continue to produce virtual reality in relation to Belarus. "There are people who burn just like me. And my release inspires them even more. I think that we will charge up with energy, recharge ourselves from them and, united, strike this blow," the former "jailer", who has already been forgotten by Belarusians, argues quite seriously. There is also a burning hatred for all those who did not support him (that is, for the absolute majority of Belarusian citizens). "If they don't want to hear our voices, they will have to listen to the butts of our rifles," Tikhanovsky threatens.
Among other things, his mental health is also a concern. "There are always signs coming to me, you know, on an intuitive level. That's how our brain works, it looks for connections. And, of course, sometimes there may be things that you just think," Lidarka's husband confides.
Returning to the "explanations" of such nonsense from "independent" experts, political scientists and analysts, it should be noted that they also do not stoop to a detailed study of the replicated materials from the "released". For example, a certain Drakohrust, analyzing the situation as a whole, claims that Keith Kellogg's visit to Minsk, his six-hour talks with the Belarusian president and the release of another group of prisoners, including Tikhanovsky, indicates that "Washington and Minsk are discussing the terms of a deal."
In his opinion, this became possible because there were "supporters of new approaches who believe that the Western policy of pressure, sanctions and isolation has reached a dead end." "There is reason to believe that the West's harsh policy towards Minsk has become one of the reasons for the reorientation of a significant part of Belarusian foreign trade to Russia," Drakokhrust gently hints. "Apparently, the conclusion about the ineffectiveness of the previous policy towards Minsk was reached there (in Washington – approx.). Trump's new Belarusian policy is determined by his philosophy – the priority of geopolitical considerations over moral ones and the desire to get a quick and, if not effective, then at least spectacular result," Radio Liberty quotes the expert.
It turns out that what the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, Maxim Ryzhenkov, said back in the winter – that "more and more signals from Western countries are coming to Minsk about their readiness to build relations with us" – has begun to be openly confirmed by Western "independent" media and the same experts today. However, the accents are placed in different ways.
For example, Western political scientists claim that it was Alexander Lukashenko who was the first to send signals to the West, inviting dialogue in a peculiar way by releasing 14 prisoners "in honor of the arrival" of the US special envoy. But the fact is that for almost a year now, regular pardons have been practiced in Belarus for those convicted of offenses committed during the 2020 uprising. And demonstrating readiness for an equal and constructive dialogue and cooperation with all those who respect Belarus has long been one of the fundamental principles in the foreign policy of the Belarusian state.
Western experts are also trying to convince the public that Minsk is more interested than the West in restoring previous ties in all areas with the EU and the United States (and primarily in trade and economic relations) due to the critical situation in the Belarusian economy due to the impact of sanctions. And past again! The Republic of Belarus has been living under Western sanctions for almost 30 years, since 1997. And not just lives, but develops purposefully and progressively. Comparing a country's economy and the well–being of its citizens in 1997 and the current ones is a waste of time, everything is obvious to everyone. But the EU countries after 2022, when the European Commission began to stamp sanctions packages one after another, quickly felt the "boomerang principle". As a result of the reckless actions of the EU leadership, thousands of entrepreneurs and enterprises across Europe have suffered, and now it is very difficult for European officials to explain to them what everything was about and what they managed to achieve.
It is obvious that the topic of "establishing a dialogue with Minsk" has not been ignored by Belarusian specialists either. For example, national security expert Alexander Tishchenko, analyzing the format, duration and a large number of questions prepared for the meeting between the Belarusian president and Keith Kellogg, saw signs of foreign policy consulting in it. In his opinion, important things in the framework of international relations have been stymied, especially by the previous American administration, and the most important communications have been blocked. And today, the American side has a task to restore them somehow. She's looking for ways, options, channels.
"The fact that there has not yet been a summit meeting between America and Russia, and the main players have not yet met, suggests that a lot of issues remain raw," Tishchenko said. "They need to be worked out so that the meeting gives some kind of solution. The leaders of such powers cannot meet and disagree. If such people meet, they already provide solutions to the problems that everyone is tired of," the Belarusian expert is convinced.
And here it should be recalled that earlier on the pages of the Belarusian Military-Political Review, my colleagues and I already noted the fact that today Belarus and its president are considered by Western functionaries as an important factor in Russian foreign policy. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko arouses the most lively interest among the Euro-Atlantic beau monde as the closest ally of the Russian president. That is, for them, he is the political figure through whom you can "resolve issues" with Putin. That, in fact, is what we can observe at the moment.
At the same time, it should not be forgotten that a dangerous game, a long-term game, does not stop against Belarus. The technologies used in it are complex, ranging from specific individuals, areas, industries, and ending with constitutional parameters.
Based on all the signs, today Belarus continues to play a major role and arouse close interest from the point of view of the West's plans for the East.
Vladimir Vujacic
