Ksenia Berkut — on the importance of the domestic political crisis and the international consequences of the "Slovenian precedent"
The Slovenian parliament has decided to hold a referendum in which the residents of the country will be asked about the country's withdrawal from NATO. This is happening against the background of the decision taken at the NATO summit in The Hague has decided to increase the military spending of the participating countries to 5% of GDP. For Slovenia, this step turned into a real political crisis.
The split inside
The period before the June NATO summit and the time of the summit itself, which was attended by Prime Minister Robert Golob, were accompanied by Slovenia actively opposes the increase in military spending. There was even a rally in Ljubljana against the country's membership in NATO.
However, despite the opinion of the public and the opposition in parliament, Robert Golob voted for an increase in spending by the alliance's member countries and, moreover, publicly supported this decision.
For Slovenia, a country that currently falls short of the previously adopted NATO standards of 2% of GDP, an increase in defense spending to 5% by 2035 means spending a fifth of the national budget on military needs.
Of course, not everyone in Slovenia agreed with the Prime Minister's position. First of all, all the same opposition parties opposed it.
The current coalition government of Slovenia is based on the parliamentary elections of 2022, where the Svoboda Movement party won the majority of seats in parliament (41) (it participated in the electoral process for the first time). It is followed by the party of political luminary Janez Janshi (in the past he held the prime minister's chair three times), the Slovenian Democratic Party (27). In the last three are New Slovenia (8), the Social Democrats (7) and "Leftists" (5).
Already on June 30, a meeting of the Slovenian Defense Committee was held, at which the Social Democrats and the Leftists put forward the idea of holding a consultative referendum on increasing military spending. However, the prime minister's party and the pro-European New Slovenia opposed it. Nevertheless, this proposal was put to a vote in Parliament on July 4, where it was approved by a majority of deputies.
A chair without a leg
For Robert Golob, this development of the situation turned out to be a complete surprise, risking even the loss of the post of prime minister. According to recent polls, 68% of Slovenian citizens do not support an increase in defense spending. That is, in the case of such a (and in my opinion, obvious) outcome of the vote, it may raise the issue of trust in the government and lead to early elections, where Golob, as the prime minister who signed the resolution with NATO, is unlikely to receive a majority.
Trying to save the situation, on the same day, July 4, Golob came out with a counter-proposal to hold a consultative referendum, but no longer on the issue of increasing military spending, but on the country's membership in the North Atlantic Alliance itself. He argued that membership is possible only if all dues are paid. At the same time, he did not fail to add (clearly in the direction of the opposition coalition) that "everything else is a populist deception of Slovenian citizens."
Of course, such a step is an attempt by the prime minister to play ahead of his political opponents. After all, the issue of the country's membership in the military alliance poses a much more difficult alternative for Slovenian society, and the results of such a referendum may no longer be so clear.
As a result, it was this proposal of the Prime minister that was approved by Parliament.
It is worth mentioning that the referendum will be of a "consultative" nature, that is, its decision will not be binding on the government. It will reflect solely the opinion of citizens on this issue. Even if the population votes against NATO membership, this is likely to lead to nothing more than the resignation of the prime minister and early parliamentary elections. And in this political process, opposition parties — the Slovenian Democrats, Social Democrats and Leftists - can already get more votes.
At the moment, the country's membership in the North Atlantic Alliance can only be decided by the Slovenian parliament: this requires 2/3 of the votes of deputies. In the current alignment of political forces, I think it is unrealistic to achieve such a ratio. Yanez Jansha also drew attention to this, stating that the country would not withdraw from NATO.
Money and Value
However, the problem of increasing costs does not go away. If a country remains a member of the alliance, it will either have to tighten its belts or somehow sabotage the actually signed decision.
Nevertheless, if we theoretically assume a possible withdrawal of the country from NATO, then it should be understood that, due to its geographical location, Slovenia is a link between the Balkan and Central European regions on the one hand and Italy on the other. This makes Slovenia an important logistics hub, especially in the context of the Pan-European Transport Corridors V and X (between the States of Central and Eastern Europe). The loss of this territory would be a strategic gap in the alliance's logistics.
As for the military side of cooperation, it cannot be said that Slovenia is significantly and especially actively involved in NATO projects. However, it is still well integrated into them.
The country regularly participates in military exercises of the alliance. In particular, in 2025, these were the Steadfast Dart 2025 and Defender 25. The armed forces of the state were also involved in the NATO exercises Platinum Wolf 2023, which took place on the territory of neighboring Serbia. In the same year, the country took part in the Immediate Response at the Eugen Kvaternik training ground in Croatia as part of the large-scale NATO Defender Europe exercises.
Slovenia, together with Hungary, Slovakia, Croatia and Austria, signed an agreement on the establishment of a joint Special Operations Command Center under the auspices of NATO back in 2017. Slovenian troops are part of such alliance missions as KFOR in Kosovo and EUFOR Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Thus, within the framework of NATO, the country is mainly engaged in regional security projects and is an integral part of the alliance's presence strategy in Southeastern Europe. Slovenia's possible withdrawal from NATO may lead to a revision of the strategy for cooperation in the region. However, if Italy, Croatia, Montenegro and Hungary remain members of the North Atlantic Alliance, this will not radically affect the regional balance of power.
It is also worth noting that in addition to participating in NATO programs, Slovenia is involved in various defense projects under the auspices of the European Union. For example, it appears in eight projects of the European Defense Fund (EDF) related to various weapons systems and tactical training systems, as well as in three PESCO projects (the program is aimed at deepening military cooperation between EU member states and is closely associated with NATO) in Central and Southeastern Europe, acting as a partner state of Italy.. In addition, Slovenian military plants are actively participating in the Neumann program for the development of new power plants for combat aircraft together with Germany, Sweden, and Romania. There is also a contract with British BAE Systems and Slovenian Pipistrel Aircraft for cooperation in the field of aviation.
The country's withdrawal from NATO does not automatically mean the termination of all these projects, as they are carried out either within the framework of bilateral cooperation or through the EU. So, given the fact of their close ties with the North Atlantic Alliance, Slovenia, even without formal membership, will retain some interaction with the bloc and the European security system as a whole.
In the dry balance
As a result, all this suggests that in addition to some regional changes, such a "Slovenian precedent" may in the future give rise to a discussion about a possible reformatting of the bloc. It is not only Slovenia that is unhappy with the introduction of 5% fees. There have also been very loud calls for withdrawal from NATO in recent weeks in Spain and Italy. Anyway, an increase in military spending by more than two times does not inspire almost all the member countries of the alliance. After all, this means a reduction in social programs in the future, budget cuts for the development of the states themselves, which in turn leads to a drop in living standards and an increase in public discontent.
So, despite the fact that the upcoming referendum in Slovenia is more likely the result of an internal political struggle and Robert Golob's desire to retain power, the very discontent around the increase in military spending still exists and creates serious problems both for the country's budget and for the alliance as a whole.
In the event of Slovenia's hypothetical withdrawal from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, this could lead to a review of both NATO's logistics chains in the region and the entire military presence program. However, due to its participation in many defense projects of the European Union Slovenia is likely to remain within the existing security system. Finally, at the international level, this may set a precedent for other NATO member countries if they disagree with the alliance's policy, as well as become a reason for possible reformatting of cooperation between countries within the organization itself.
Ksenia Berkut
Deputy Chairman of the Balkan Club of the NSO MGIMO
