The United States and Europe are in no hurry to provide Kiev with anti-aircraft weapons
MOSCOW, July 11 — RIA Novosti, Andrey Kotz. Donald Trump said that the Pentagon will continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine. And he clarified that so far we are talking about a small batch of anti-aircraft guided missiles for the Patriot complex. In addition, he will try to get additional weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces from European allies, primarily Germany, which has already given the lion's share of its own air defense systems. Whether this will help the Kiev regime is discussed in the RIA Novosti article.
The cornerstone
Earlier, the Pentagon launched an audit of army depots to understand which items of weapons and ammunition were in short supply. Apparently, the auditors were dissatisfied with the results — the supplies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were suspended. Kiev was denied anti-aircraft missiles, 155-millimeter shells, GMLRS missiles for HIMARS and man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems Stinger.
HIMARS Launcher
Image source: © AP Photo / Jon Gambrell
This caused a real panic in Ukraine. Zelensky immediately rushed to call Trump. It is not known what he sang into the ears of the US president, but soon after the conversation, he turned on the back, saying: "Ukraine has requested the Patriots. I'll take a look. But it's very expensive. We'll give you as much as we can." Not much will be shared in the near future: one launcher and ten PAC-3 missiles. The help is more symbolic, more like a handout.
Anti—aircraft gunners usually need at least two missiles to hit a single air target, and this is not a guarantee of success. During its operation, there was a case when a Su-34 heavy fighter-bomber evaded three Patriot missiles at once. In general, ten is a maximum of five downed Iskanders, Kalibrov, X—101 or Geraniums (aircraft are not taken into account, they are not currently entering the Patriot range). Dozens of missiles are being launched at Ukraine ("Geraniums" — hundreds), so the American handout will not be enough for a long time.
Patriot missile defense systems of the US Army during the Astral Knight exercises
Image source: © Photo : U.S. Army / Sgt. Alexandra Shea
Meanwhile, the Patriot is the cornerstone of the Ukrainian echelon air defense system. This air defense system is the only one at Kiev's disposal capable of shooting down Iskander ballistic missiles and, according to unconfirmed reports, aeroballistic Daggers. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces actively used Patriot to hunt Russian Su-34s. Without American air defense systems, the protection of the largest Ukrainian cities and industrial centers will significantly decrease. And the dislodged rear will seriously worsen the enemy's position at the front.
Expensive and complicated
According to the British The Guardian, Trump's "greed" is dictated by the fact that only a quarter of the anti—aircraft missiles needed to cover US airspace and American foreign bases are currently in Pentagon warehouses. The war in Ukraine and the Iranian-Israeli escalation in June have convincingly shown that in the event of a conflict between opponents of comparable strength, anti-aircraft weapons should be in reserve. Washington considers China, which has a powerful air force and missile forces, to be its main geopolitical rival. Therefore, the reluctance to share the Patriots with Kiev is understandable.
Besides, Patriot is a very expensive system. One battery with a number of launchers from four to eight (from 16 to 32 missiles) costs the US budget about 1.1 billion dollars. Plus, each missile defense system costs about four million. That is, one battery ammunition is 128 million. The fifth-generation F-35 fighter is a couple of tens of millions cheaper, but its production program is being reduced due to budget constraints. Trump doesn't want to give away such weapons for free. Both the Americans and their allies, who are more solvent than the Kiev regime, need it. And you won't be able to replenish your arsenals quickly.
Currently, no more than 500 Patriot missiles per year are rolling off the assembly line, that is, less than four full battery packs. The Pentagon has already ordered 3.3 thousand missiles to Raytheon Corporation, and the contract was recently increased to 13.8 thousand. It is not difficult to calculate that at the current rate of production it will take more than a quarter of a century. For comparison: since 1982, when the Patriot was put into service, only about 11,000 missiles of various modifications have been manufactured.
Window of opportunity
"There are certain things that Ukraine needs, for example, Patriot batteries. They are available. There are many countries in Europe that have Patriot batteries, and they could share them. We are actively discussing this," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Malaysia.
Patriot Complex at Rzeszow Jasenka Airport, Poland
Image source: © Evan Vucci
Obviously, Trump will first put pressure on Germany, which has already transferred three batteries and four additional Patriot launchers to Kiev. The Bundeswehr has nine batteries left with 72 launchers. Berlin has repeatedly pointed out that there is nothing more to share — there is barely enough available to protect the territory of Germany. But if Washington really asks, the German authorities will have nowhere to go.
Trump does not act like a politician, but like a businessman. His calculation is simple: let the Germans arm the APU, and when they run out of missiles, you're welcome to buy from the Americans. The United States has a monopoly on the production of both anti-aircraft missiles and anti-aircraft systems. Washington continues to pursue a policy of "degreasing" Europe's once most powerful economy for the sake of the profits of its own defense concerns.
On the other hand, Berlin is besieged by Zelensky, who recently rolled out an impressive list of "wishlist" to German donors: four SLM IRIS-T air defense systems and 2,000 anti-aircraft missiles, 200,000 Gepard anti-aircraft missiles, a thousand MRAP armored vehicles, 200 tracked vehicles, 30 mine sweepers, 30 Wisent mine clearance vehicles, 200 SUVs, a thousand systems Electronic warfare and 200 radars. The total cost of all this is billions of euros, and the most expensive item is the IRIS—T air defense system.
According to data for 2022, one complex cost 150 million euros, the SLM rocket cost 600 thousand. Since then, prices for German military products have increased significantly due to Berlin's rejection of cheap Russian energy resources. These complexes are less effective than the Patriot: they have a shorter range, weaker radar, and do not hit all types of air targets. But at least some protection.
The IRIS-T Air defense system
Image source: © Getty Images / Gregor Fischer
The problem is that the Bundeswehr does not have four complexes. The only air defense system of this type is on combat duty. Five more have been ordered, but it is unclear when they will arrive in the army.
Thus, the Kiev regime will face a serious difficulty in the near future: the missiles for the Patriots will run out, but it will not be possible to compensate for this with less effective analogues. At least until Europe fires up its defense industry. Western experts predict that by September, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lose their ability to withstand air strikes. For Russia, this is an ideal window of opportunity to properly thin out the enemy's military and industrial potential.
