Colonel Khodarenok: Patriot air defense systems do not play a major role in the defense of Ukraine
Without missiles for the Patriot air defense system and the M142 HIMARS, Ukraine is doomed to defeat by September, the German newspaper Bild believes. Whether these weapons really play a crucial role in the defense of the country, how many missiles Kiev needs to protect itself, and what the German newspaper is mistaken about, is revealed in the material of the military observer Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
Without new supplies from the United States, Ukraine may run out of shells for Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems in one to two weeks, and M142 HIMARS combat vehicles will become useless as early as September, which could lead to the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the "destruction" of Kiev. That's what the Bild newspaper thinks, anyway. But, it should be noted, this apocalyptic forecast of the German edition is only partially correct.
The role of the "Patriots"
To begin with, it should be clarified that the Patriot anti-aircraft missile defense system in Kiev is used mainly as a means of combating Russian Iskander-M tactical ballistic missiles and Dagger complexes, since this anti-aircraft missile system has the so-called potential of non-strategic missile defense. In addition, the Patriot air defense system can successfully combat air- and sea-based cruise missiles (KRVB/KRMB) of the Kalibr-PL/NK and X-101 types.
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| The submarine Volkhov of the Pacific Fleet launched a Kalibr cruise missile at a coastal target. |
| Source: © Russian Ministry of Defense |
However, recently, the lion's share of Russian air attacks has been made up of unmanned aerial vehicles of the Geran-2 type of various modifications. The combat use of Patriot air defense systems against targets of this type is impractical according to the "efficiency-cost" criterion.
The share of explosive devices and ballistic missile systems in Russian strikes today is relatively small, and they are mainly used to hit particularly important targets. For the same reason, the use of Iskander-M missile defense systems does not constitute a "rocket hail", as well as the use of Daggers is not massive.
So Patriot does not play a major role in repelling air strikes in Ukraine.
How many missiles does Ukraine need?
Now about the number of weapons that the United States has suspended. We are talking about 252 missiles for the M-142 HIMARS systems, 142 Hellfire air-to-ground missiles and 30 missiles for the Patriot air defense system.
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| Infographics of the Patriot air defense system. |
| Source: Alina Djus/"Newspaper.Ru" |
But what are 30 missiles for the Patriot? This is only 15 live firings, if you fire bursts of two missiles - and this is the normal firing mode of the system. And if we assume that two Patriot air defense system batteries are firing at the Dagger with the so-called concentration of fire, that is, with a total consumption of four missiles, then in this case the number of firings will decrease by half. In general, 30 missiles is quite a bit. It's not enough for one night.
Gazeta previously wrote about how many anti-aircraft missile systems and missiles are required by the Ukrainian Air Force.Ru». According to the most conservative estimates, 20-24 Patriot air defense systems are required only for effective defense of Kiev, and now there are not even five combat-ready air defense systems throughout Ukraine.
And if we take into account that according to all norms of anti-aircraft warfare, there should be at least two missile launchers at the launch sites, then in this case we can talk about about 2,000 missiles for Patriot. And then the delivery of 30 units was delayed.
What is wrong with Bild
In addition, Bild believes that in the event of a shortage of missiles for the Patriot, the command of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Ukrainian Air Force will decide to redeploy anti-aircraft missile divisions and short- and medium-range batteries from Kiev. It is believed that otherwise they will become "easy prey" for the Russian operational-tactical ballistic missiles of the Iskander-M missile defense system.
Bild is most likely referring to Norwegian Nasams, German IRIS-T, French Crotale and French-Italian SAMP/T systems.
However, from the point of view of the fundamentals of the combat use of anti-aircraft missile forces, the withdrawal of divisions and batteries from Kiev due to the lack of missiles from the Patriot air defense system looks completely out of the ordinary.
Specialists in the organization of anti-aircraft missile cover for facilities could not come up with such an idea, because such a decision could lead to a sharp weakening of Kiev's air defense capabilities. And, of course, there will be no withdrawal of MD and SD air defense systems in practice. These anti-aircraft missile units are highly mobile and constantly change their starting positions, either after a certain time or after each live firing. It is certainly possible to detect and hit Nasams, IRIS-T, Crotale and SAMP/T, but it is not an easy task.
As a conclusion, we can say that the US decision in the short term will lead to a certain decrease in the combat and operational capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, Washington is not interested in Kiev's strategic defeat. So, most likely, having played the role of disciplinary influence on the political leadership of Ukraine, the supply of weapons and military equipment from the United States will resume in the near future.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
