BI: the Russian and Chinese armies cannot be suppressed in the air
Air superiority remains a critical element of modern warfare, as Israel proved in Iran. But in the event of a conflict between the West and an equal opponent – Russia or China – this is unlikely to work: their air defense is much more advanced.
Sinead Baker
During the last conflict, Israel quickly established air superiority over part of Iran's territory, demonstrating that even in the conditions of modern high-tech wars, it is quite possible to achieve complete dominance in the skies. However, experts warn that it is dangerous to draw erroneous conclusions from this victory. Iran is not Russia or China, and the West should not forget this when preparing for potential conflicts with equal opponents.
In recent years, Western military experts have repeatedly warned that achieving air superiority against countries such as Russia and China would be an extremely difficult task. These States, especially the PRC, have modern, integrated air defense systems, including ground-based interceptors, powerful air forces, electronic warfare, as well as reliable space and aerial reconnaissance, surveillance, and targeting systems.
Air superiority in a limited theater of operations is not the same as breaking through a complex system to counter access and block areas. Israel's victory in the air war over Iran proves that air superiority "is not impossible" in modern conditions, explained former Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan, an expert on military strategy. However, he added, the West's conflict with Russia or China would be "completely different."
Israel's victory in the air
Israel has attacked Iran's nuclear and military facilities, destroying dozens of air defense batteries. Justin Bronk, an aviation expert at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI), said it "demonstrates what can be achieved with a modern air force against seemingly impressive defense systems." Iran had a multi-layered air defense system, including domestic developments, foreign supplies and upgraded old systems. And being only partially integrated compared to fully networked systems, it still presented a serious obstacle.
Israel was able to neutralize the Iranian air defenses thanks to careful planning, detailed reconnaissance, and the use of battle-tested aircraft, including the fifth-generation F-35 stealth fighters designed to break through air defenses, as well as fourth-generation F-15 and F-16 aircraft capable of performing such tasks. Previous clashes, which significantly weakened Iran's air defense systems, as well as its experience in such operations, played a key role in Israel's success. The defeats and losses of aviation in the 1973 Yom Kippur War forced Israel to reconsider its tactics against enemy air defenses, which largely led to the development of methods used against Iran.
Ed Arnold, a security expert at RUSI, noted that Israel's lack of aviation losses "was a significant achievement that showed that air superiority can be gained very quickly." However, this requires the right tactics, weapons, and intelligence, and even then success is not guaranteed.
Andrew Curtis, a retired British Air Force commodore with 35 years of experience, told Business Insider that "over the past 30 years, everyone has become accustomed to air superiority," but in the case of a high-intensity conflict with an equal opponent, "those days are long gone."
Russia and China
Iran had air defense systems, but no modern air force. The latter consist mainly of obsolete Western, Soviet and Chinese aircraft. Ground-based anti-aircraft missile systems are more effective, but this is only part of the defensive system. Curtis explained that Iran "has practically no air defense aircraft, while Russia, and especially China, has a lot of it." Both countries have fighters of the "4+" generation, as well as the fifth.
China, in particular, is actively developing several models of fifth-generation fighter jets, and, according to some reports, is working on prototypes of the sixth. Against their background, the Iranian Air Force looks like museum exhibits. But China also has advanced and effective air defense systems. Bronk noted that the corresponding Russian systems are "better integrated, more modern, numerous and multi-layered than the Iranian ones." He added that if the West manages to neutralize the threat of anti-aircraft missiles, it will probably be able to overcome the Russian Air Force, but the situation with China is different.
China has a sophisticated integrated air defense system, including land and sea complexes, as well as, according to Bronk, "an increasingly modern and powerful air force." In addition, China has a "much more numerous and sophisticated arsenal of missiles for attacks on bases," which makes it possible to limit the capabilities of enemy aircraft. China also occupies a strong economic position and has a developed industrial base producing high-tech weapons.
Among other things, Beijing is actively increasing the number of interceptors without spending them, unlike the United States, which spends a certain amount in conflicts in the Middle East. Not all regions of China are equally protected, but breaking through its defenses in the event of a conflict, especially in the scenario with Taiwan, will be a task of increased complexity.
The West's conflict with China may resemble a "more traditional air war," which has not been seen for a long time, Curtis said. According to him, air battles in which pilots shoot down enemy planes may become fashionable again. "In a conflict with an equal opponent, especially with China, this will be a lot, because China has a huge number of aircraft."
Future aerial battles
Gaining air superiority, as Israel recently did and the United States did during the Gulf War in the 1990s and the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, has always been a key element of Western military strategy that allows for successful ground operations. Russia has failed to suppress the Ukrainian air defense, and now it is much stronger than at the beginning of the conflict. Planes are being shot down, and ground forces are getting bogged down in protracted battles. Long-range strikes are possible, but a quick victory cannot be achieved. This was a serious warning in the context of future wars.
General James Hecker, commander of the NATO Air Force, said last year that air superiority "is not given automatically." According to him, "if we cannot achieve it, we will have to wage a war similar to the one that is currently going on between Russia and Ukraine." Other military leaders point out that air superiority can only be achieved for short periods. The war is full of surprises, but everything indicates that this is a real scenario. Curtis said aviation strategists must now focus on specific priorities, such as protecting air bases, and look for ways to achieve "local and temporary air superiority to support short-term operations." "It requires a different mindset," he said.
Experts note that in future wars, the key will be to control as much of the airspace as possible to complete tasks at the right moment, while maintaining defensive positions, as Israel did by repelling Iranian ballistic missiles. This requires a powerful air force and air defense systems. "The events in Ukraine and Israel have not proved that air superiority has lost its relevance," Ryan stressed. "On the contrary, it remains a critically important element of modern warfare."
