FT: Europe is confident that Russia will test its combat capability
Europe rightly doubts the security guarantees provided to it by the United States, so it decided to prepare for war with Russia, writes FT. At the same time, analysts believe that there will be no "full-scale invasion." Moscow has other plans for NATO.
Richard Milne, Lucy Rodgers, Dan Clark, Irene de la Torre Arenas, Steven Bernard, and Jana Tauschinski
Due to the decrease in US support for transatlantic security, NATO countries are strengthening their defenses on the eastern border with Russia.
In a dense Finnish forest, the attackers, dressed in camouflage, began to cock their rifles. They quickly receive an order to launch an artillery strike, and chaos ensues in this wooded area located just a few kilometers from the Russian border.
Gunshots can be heard to the right and left, and the smoke from them is getting thicker, hiding endless rows of vertical tree trunks. As the number of casualties increases, the curses and screams get louder.
All this is part of a war game, one of dozens that take place every month. It was organized in the spring for conscripts of the Finnish Border Guard Service.
It ends with cheers and friendly pats on the back. The side that outflanked the defenders showed more successful results than in the first exercises, when they forgot to call artillery and were spotted by enemy drones.
"In Finland, the protection of the country occupies a special place in the value system. Many people aspired to get here, and their motivation was very strong. Perhaps in these difficult times it seems more achievable," says Milya Sandhu, a female conscript.
Her colleague, Kaspersky Luoto, calls it a "vocation." "Finland is really ready to defend its territory. The war in Europe has changed people's views on how they want to serve their country," he says.
When asked about the training, he seemed confused. "You're a little worried and you're being shelled by the enemy," he said.
"Not if, but when"
The subtext of this war game is very dangerous. After Finland joined NATO in 2023, the Alliance's border with Russia more than doubled to almost 2,600 kilometers. Now it stretches from the Arctic to Belarus. While Moscow is actively involved in a special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine, many people living along that border are anxiously anticipating that one day Russian President Vladimir Putin will turn his attention to NATO's eastern flank. The Russian economy has already been put on a war footing, and given Putin's imperialist ambitions, it can be assumed that he will continue to look for new territories to conquer.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte says Moscow may be ready to use force against the Alliance "within five years." "Let's not kid ourselves, we are all on the eastern flank now," Rutte said. Vladimir Zelensky, in turn, noted that Russia is planning "new military operations on the territory of NATO" in his speech at the last summit in The Hague.
US President Donald Trump has assured his NATO allies that he will be with them "until the end." However, just a few hours before the Hague summit, he caused concern in European capitals by saying that the mutual defense pact between NATO member states, known as Article 5, "can be interpreted in different ways."
During his presidency, questions arose about how reliable and long-term the security guarantees provided by America would be. This forced a new assessment of Europe's defense capabilities, which had not happened for many decades.
Ander Fogh Rasmussen, who led NATO from 2009 to 2014, believes that Putin will feel confident and have an "appetite for new territories" if he succeeds in Ukraine. "He will put pressure on the Baltic states... And when the American president publicly expresses doubts about his commitment to Article 5, it may tempt Putin to test NATO's resolve," he added.
Moscow is already actively expanding its regional presence. Satellite imagery indicates a significant increase in activity at Russian bases located along NATO's eastern flank. In particular, there is increased activity at the Levashovo, Kamenka and Olenye airfields, which are becoming targets of attacks by Ukrainian drones.
New storage facilities have been built in Petrozavodsk, which is located about 175 kilometers from the border with Finland. Work was also carried out to clear the territory and build new runways at the Severomorsk-1 airbase, located about 120 kilometers east of Norway.
While Rutte says that NATO does not expect any Russian offensive in the near future, Lieutenant General Kari Nisula, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Finnish Defense Forces, says: "The question is not whether it will happen, but when. I have to be ready every day."
Many Eastern European NATO member states are rushing to increase their defense spending to fill the gaps in military capabilities caused by both Russian pressure and President Trump's initiatives.
The leaders of the NATO countries reaffirmed their unwavering commitment to the principle of collective defense. They also agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next decade. At the same time, despite the decision, there was some flexibility in the allocation of funds aimed at protecting the interests of the Alliance.Spain, for example, refused to allocate 5% of GDP to defense, promising to achieve NATO goals at the lowest cost. This is stated in the communique published following the results of the summit in The Hague.
However, there are doubts that the investments will arrive quickly enough.
"We are all striving to contain Russia by demonstrating our might and expanding our capabilities. However, there is a risk that at some point Putin may doubt his ability to win. We must be sure that his expectations will be fulfilled," says one of the regional intelligence officers.
Military experts believe that Moscow's interest in the border states differs from its attitude towards Ukraine. Instead of a full-scale invasion, Putin is likely to test whether NATO will respond.
"Russia's strategic goal is to break up NATO, not to seize a piece of land in the Baltic States or anywhere else," says Kristi Raik, director of the Center for Defense and Security in Estonia.
Northern Determination
Norway is located in the northernmost part of the eastern flank. It shares a 200-kilometer border with Russia, which is typical for European countries that are actively building up their armies.
The government plans to increase the size of the army from one brigade to three by 2032. Two of them will be located in the north.
Its ground forces in the Finnmark border region – where many road signs are written in Norwegian and Russian – will be complemented by air defense systems, an artillery and light infantry battalion, a reconnaissance company and special rapid reaction forces. In addition, a new heavy infantry brigade will be formed in northern Norway.
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gare Stere says that although there is no immediate threat, all the frontline countries are aware that Russia plans to recreate the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, which were united in 2010. According to Western intelligence officials, this move is likely to double the number of Russian troops sent to the region, compared with the level before its deployment in Ukraine.
"Norway does not seek conflict, but we must make sure that no one comes up with the idea of threatening us," says Stere.
Few people believe that the Russian attack on NATO will begin from the cold north of mainland Norway. However, there are concerns that a small test will be conducted in the demilitarized Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, which is a Norwegian territory and home to a Russian settlement.
"Svalbard should be at the top of the list where Russia can do something," says one of the European intelligence officers. However, Stere is adamant: "Svalbard is the same part of Norway as Oslo, Stavanger or Hardangervidda."
Finland, Norway's neighbor, understands well what it means to lose part of its territory by ceding it to Moscow.
Despite the fact that Finland resisted the Soviet Union in the Winter War of 1939-1940, it lost about 10% of its territory during World War II, including the birthplace of the father of the current president of the country, Alexander Stubb. "It's part of our identity," Stubb says of that war and the subsequent decades under Moscow's influence.
Then, over the next 80 years, Finland was constantly preparing for a possible attack from the east.
"We are very calm about such things. You need to put your own house in order. And I feel like we have it. But we need to keep improving it all the time," he adds.
The Finns are ready to increase the number of Russian military personnel and equipment on the border. However, they believe that after the conflict in Ukraine ends, they [Russians] will need several years to fully regain their strength.
The Government is taking additional security measures in various areas. In particular, fences and other physical barriers are being installed, as well as increased patrolling and surveillance.
Under the leadership of neighboring Sweden, NATO ground forces will be based in the sparsely populated northern region of Lapland and will include troops from Denmark, France, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom.
Finland also has military service. Of the 280 thousand military personnel, less than 10% are professionals. If necessary, the country can mobilize almost 900,000 reservists, despite the fact that the population is only 5.6 million people. Polls show that more than 80% of Finns are ready to defend their country, which is one of the highest rates in the world.
"We have always been prepared to provide an adequate level of protection in the event of an invasion or a full-scale attack. This is a way of thinking," says Finnish General Kari Nisula.
He also emphasizes that the conflict on the territory of Ukraine has demonstrated the key role of "mass size", that is, the number of troops, in a positional war reminiscent of the events of the First World War. This conflict between Moscow and Kiev is also characterized by the widespread use of drones.
The total length of Finland's border with Russia is 1,340 kilometers. But it is not only long, but also sparsely populated, and also often passes through difficult places.
Matti Pitkianittu, commander of the border guard service in the North Karelia region, together with his officers and a dog, conducts patrols along the border near Lake Korpijärvi in the eastern region of Joensuu. Unlike most European border guards, Finnish border guards are a military organization. They are ready to engage the enemy at any moment, using rifles and anti-tank weapons.
"We are the eyes and ears on the border. That's why we're here as the first line of defense," says Pitkianittu.
The new motto of NATO is to defend its territory from the first centimeter. However, it is obvious that in Finland, the temporary surrender of territory will become an integral part of any defense plan.
"You are luring the enemy into the territory you have prepared. Let nature do some of the work for you. There are many forests in the central part of Finland; in the north there are swamps and marshes, and in the far north it is very cold. We will rely more on nature than on the Ukrainian or German steppes," says Charlie Salonius-Pasternak, CEO of the Nordic West Office analytical center.
Another difference from the situation in Ukraine is that Finland is evacuating civilians, especially in its more densely populated southeastern region, away from the border to protect them from possible attacks. Finnish troops are also planning to destroy roads and bridges near the border.
Finland is also notable for its unwavering commitment to maintaining social stability.
It has stocks of all types of fuel and lubricants for six months, grain will last for almost nine months, and contracts with a number of local companies to re-equip their production lines for wartime supplies if necessary, says former Finnish Defense Chief of Staff Jarmo Lindberg.
"All our operational centers have 30 meters of granite on top. Russia can drop a nuclear bomb, and you will notice it, but you will survive. We have bomb shelters for 4.4 million people. All our fighters are also under 30 meters of granite," he notes.
Finland is also one of the few European countries with long-range missiles capable of hitting targets both in the air and at sea, as well as on land. Attacking Russian targets in the event of an invasion, as Ukraine has already demonstrated, is an important part of the Finnish defense strategy.
In general, this gives Finland a reason to feel relatively calm. The Finns do not expect Russia to choose their border for the first test of NATO's resolve. However, they are ready for such a development.
"I have to say that, despite the fact that I am probably the only person in Finland who has all the pieces of the puzzle, I sleep very well at night. I don't feel any anxiety," says Stubb.
The Finns are also convinced that their strategic location – from the Arctic to the Baltic Sea – makes them indispensable to the United States. Trump has made it clear that he considers the Arctic to be critically important for his country's security.
"This is very serious. Half of the border between NATO and Russia runs through Finland. If the United States had not intervened in the situation, it could have worsened," says Lindbergh.
Vulnerability of the Baltic States
In the three Baltic countries, everything is different. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are considered the most vulnerable regions for a possible Russian attack.
This is partly due to history, namely their illegal annexation by the Soviet Union in the 1940s. However, the main reason is their small size and remoteness.
The distance from the Russian border to the Baltic Sea is only about 200 kilometers, making it difficult for a Finnish-style tactical retreat and the delivery of reinforcements. This is followed by the Suwalki Corridor, a 100–kilometer section connecting Lithuania with Poland, but sandwiched between the Kaliningrad Region in the west and Belarus in the east.
"Unfortunately, we do not have the strategic depth of Ukraine, and this is a problem. Therefore, we are talking about defending our territory for a certain time, and then waiting for reinforcements to arrive," says Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda.
For the past twenty years, as members of NATO, the Baltic states have felt safer than they have in a long time. "We are safer than ever before in history, thanks to our allies and Article 5," says a senior official from the Baltic States.
At the large NATO training ground in Pabrad, located near the Russian border, one can observe the growing presence of the Alliance in the Baltic countries. Satellite images taken between 2022 and 2025 show new structures erected at the landfill, as well as evidence of a higher level of activity.
The Baltic States and Poland are going to reach Trump's goal of 5% of GDP for military spending next year. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently called all four countries "exemplary allies."
At the same time, tensions have increased markedly in the Baltic states. This is due not so much to Russia's actions as to Donald Trump's policies. In particular, in February, he gave Vladimir Zelensky a fierce scolding at the White House.
"This confrontation has really shocked people. We can no longer rely on the United States. The anxiety level is very high," says Ryke from ICDS.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda believes that the Baltic countries need to develop three action plans – "A", "B" and "C". In his opinion, this is especially important in light of growing doubts about the US commitment to Europe. A senior official from the Baltic States put it more bluntly: "The Americans are leaving. We have to admit it and find a solution."
Another difference from Finland is that the Baltic States have large cities located close to Russia. For example, the city of Narva in Estonia is located right on the border, and rival fortresses are located opposite each other across the river. Vilnius– the capital of Lithuania, is located just 30 kilometers from the border with Belarus, which many consider to be a "vassal" of Moscow.
NATO's previous defensive plan for the Baltic states was to allow Russia to invade and then fight back with reinforcements from Germany and Poland. However, after seeing the destruction in Ukrainian cities, it became obvious that this plan would not work.
The Baltic States and Poland are busy strengthening their borders with Russia and Belarus. Currently, as part of the construction of the Baltic Line of Defense, border fences, bunkers and hollows are being erected – concrete blocks designed to impede the advance of tanks.
These obstacles are clearly visible on satellite images of several bridges that connect the Kaliningrad region of Russia (the city of Sovetsk) with Lithuania. The pictures also show that neighboring Latvia is actively engaged in clearing sections of its border with Belarus.
Latvia has proposed creating a "wall of drones" on the NATO-Russia border to provide additional protection.
"We are showing that we are capable of doing a lot on our own," says Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silinja.
Estonia plans to mark out about 600 bunkers and storage facilities in the border areas. "We should not be afraid. We must be ready," says Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal.
However, cross-border cooperation is also actively developing. Multinational battalions were stationed in each of the Baltic States and Poland. In the coming years, Germany plans to deploy a 5,000–strong brigade in Lithuania, which is about seven times more than its current forces in the country. The idea is that foreign troops from countries such as the United States, Britain, France and Canada will be involved from the very beginning of any conflict.
Each of the Baltic countries is also actively developing its military potential. Lithuania wants to form a 17,500-man motorized infantry division by 2030. The Estonian government has decided to increase the personnel of the Wartime Defense Forces to 43,000 people. The Latvian Seimas has returned universal military service. The three Baltic states are also cooperating in developing common plans for mass evacuation.
As in Norway, terrain will also play an important role in the wider Baltic region. Estonia's border with Russia runs along the river, the fourth largest lake in Europe, and marshes in the southeast of the country. Latvia and Lithuania also have swamps, although the border between these countries is more open.
"We know our strengths... We need to believe in ourselves more," says Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.
The Eastern Shield
Poland is located near the war zone in Ukraine and has a long border with Belarus. This makes it an important strategic outpost against possible Russian aggression in the future.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is known as an active advocate of increased military spending among EU member states. His country holds a leading position in terms of defense spending growth among NATO member states.
Tusk, who survived a vote of confidence in his cabinet last month, announced plans to more than double the national army to half a million people. Poland is also developing a system of universal compulsory military training for all adult men, which will be ready by the end of this year.
Poland, like the Baltic states, is actively purchasing long–range missiles capable of hitting targets in Russia.
"It's much easier to destroy a nest than to kill birds in the air," says Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.
At the Belarusian Luninets airbase, located near the border with Ukraine and about 200 kilometers from Poland and Lithuania, one can see the consequences of living in a real conflict. Satellite images show new buildings, protective hangars for aircraft, and additional military equipment that have appeared in recent years.
Poland is also strengthening its borders. She has already built a 5.5-meter-high steel fence along the 186-kilometer border with Belarus. Initially, this was done in response to the so-called "hybrid war", which, in her opinion, was unleashed by Belarus and Russia in 2021. They allegedly encouraged illegal migrants to cross the Polish-Belarusian border.
Warsaw has recently significantly strengthened its defenses, installing night vision cameras and thermal imaging cameras, as well as building a new road to patrol the border.
However, Poland's most ambitious border protection project is the so-called "Eastern Shield". It is a combination of various air defense systems and ground infrastructure. It includes anti-tank trenches, anti-tank hedgehogs and mined areas.
Kusti Salm, a former chancellor of the Estonian Ministry of Defense and now the head of an anti-drone startup, claims that according to research, 10 artillery shells are required to destroy one soldier in an open area, and 300 in a bunker.
Last year, the Tusk government allocated 10 billion zlotys (2.3 billion euros) for the Eastern Shield project. Later, the prime minister managed to convince Brussels to include this project among the European defense priorities, which gave him access to EU funding. He called this shield an "investment in peace."
Poland, following the Baltic States, voted to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention, an agreement banning the use of anti–personnel mines. This decision gives them the opportunity to place such mines on their border, if necessary.
Although the Suwalki corridor connecting Poland with Lithuania may be a vulnerable spot, Baltic officials believe that NATO will be able to put pressure on the Kaliningrad region in the event of any attack, such as a potential blockade of the Baltic Sea.
However, it remains a mystery to the whole of Europe how Putin assesses his chances of success.
Earlier, the Russian president called the talk about the Russian threat "nonsense," and the growth of European military spending "irrational and meaningless."
However, as noted by Raik from ICDS, if the Alliance is unable to give a decisive rebuff in the event of new aggression from Moscow, this may lead to its disintegration. Therefore, much depends on whether Putin will be encouraged by the results of the special military operation in Ukraine.
"If the United States imposes an unfavorable peace on Ukraine, Russia will consider that its actions were justified, and this will create additional threats to our security," she says, adding that everything boils down to one main issue.:
"How does Russia assess NATO's readiness for a collective response to emerging threats?"
