Colonel Khodarenok called the suspension of missile supplies to Kiev a disciplinary measure.
The United States has postponed the delivery of anti-aircraft guided missiles to the Patriot air defense system (as well as the systems themselves), Hellfire, Stinger and AIM missiles, 155-mm high-explosive shells and precision-guided GMLRS missiles. What is the reason for this suspension, how will it affect Ukraine's defense capability and why this measure looks more like disciplinary action, the military observer of Gazeta argues.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
According to NBC, some of the weapons and military equipment are currently in Europe, but this shipment was detained before being sent to Ukraine.
The volume of this military hardware (weapons and military equipment) is estimated, according to NBC, at dozens of anti-aircraft guided missiles (SAM) for the Patriot air defense system, thousands of high-explosive artillery shells of 155 mm caliber, and more than a hundred Hellfire missiles. Also, according to the broadcaster, the transfer of more than 250 precision-guided GMLRS missiles, dozens of Stinger surface-to-air missiles, AIM air-to-air missiles and grenade launchers is delayed.
The first question that arises in this case is how much of these weapons and military equipment account for, for example, the monthly consumption of ammunition and guided missiles during combat operations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In other words, switching to military language, it would be good for a detailed analysis to have the following data for the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a certain period of time: how many weapons and military equipment were on (period, date), received (period, date), resource (period, date), losses (period, date), percentage of losses to the resource (period, date).
Then we can expertly answer the question - is 250 GMLRS guided missiles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine a lot or a little? Of course, it is impossible to obtain such data during military operations by definition. They constitute state and military secrets in Ukraine and among suppliers of weapons and military equipment. Therefore, it is possible to judge the impact of delays in the supply of weapons and military equipment on the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for the most part, only on an emotional level.
And the list of weapons and their volume, which NBC publishes, should also be treated with some skepticism. For even in this case, the traditional question arises - where do the firewood come from?
The next question, to which there is no motivated and convincing answer at this stage, is how long the supply of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine from the United States has been postponed. For a day? A week? A month? A block? Or is it something more radical? Naturally, NBC does not provide such data either.
According to Politico, the reason for the suspension of the transfer of weapons is considered to be the shortage of its own stocks in the United States, which was revealed after verification. I must say bluntly that this does not look convincing, because economically and militarily, the number one power in the world cannot experience any shortages by definition.
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| Infographics of the Patriot air defense system. |
| Source: Alina Djus/"Newspaper.Ru" |
So, most likely, the following conclusions can be drawn. The suspension of supplies of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine by the United States is not of any long-term and radical nature and will be continued after a short pause. Apparently, the representatives of Kiev were told something like the following about this: "we have a re-accounting, but the store will open tomorrow at nine in the morning."
Finally, it is quite possible (and even this cannot be ruled out) that this suspension of supplies of weapons and military equipment may look like a disciplinary measure against the Ukrainian leadership, but not of a long-term nature. It'll be like this if you don't obey the overlord.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
