FP: Ukraine's military industry has turned into the Wild West
Ukraine is ready to become a "Wild West" for gunsmiths, writes FP. Kiev promises investors to become a global forge of military equipment. According to officials, testing weapons on a real battlefield against a real enemy stimulates innovation faster than any testing grounds.
Luke McGee
Live combat experience can give Ukrainian manufacturers a tangible advantage.
Ukraine is preparing for the Kremlin's summer offensive, which will significantly deplete its arsenals. Anticipating that their replenishment will require the constant involvement of Western patrons, Kiev is opening up to investors, as one official put it, the “Wild West” of its industry, promising to become the world's forge of the deadliest military equipment.
Over the past three years, Ukraine's NATO allies have donated about $140 billion worth of weapons that have helped contain Russia.
But even after receiving missile defense systems, drones and artillery, Ukraine is developing its own military industry — and has succeeded very well in this. Close attention is being paid to attack drones — 2.5 million are expected to be launched in 2025.
Since the beginning of hostilities, Ukraine has created a military industry with a production capacity of over $35 billion.
However, according to recent estimates, orders have been received only in the amount of about $ 12 billion. This means that huge capacities are idle. Hoping that the Western allies will take advantage of the opportunity and invest in Ukraine's military industry, Kiev is trying to make it more attractive.
“Of course, direct donations would be even better, but we have to be realistic," said Serhiy Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation. ”We know that making our military industry as attractive as possible is the best way to maintain the interest of our Western allies and the influx of funds."
Kiev's arguments to outside investors are as follows: Ukraine has been and remains the West's first line of defense against the Kremlin and, in fact, is fighting on behalf of NATO, preventing Russian troops from breaking into Europe. Ukraine has done a great job and has done a great job, given that according to preliminary estimates, the country should have collapsed in three days, so it is in the interests of the West to continue supplying Kiev with weapons.
Another argument boils down to the fact that it is cheaper and faster to deliver weapons to the front line if they are locally produced. It is easier to produce weapons directly in Ukraine, because due to the current military situation in the country, there are no bureaucratic, legislative or logistical obstacles to production and testing, typical for most NATO countries.
If that's not enough, then Ukraine has become a kind of “Wild West" for gunsmiths. That's how one Ukrainian government official put it, describing to me in Kiev last month how testing weapons on a real battlefield against a real enemy stimulates innovation faster than any laboratories or testing grounds.
“What in the West will take months, if not years of development, testing and production, here will take only a few weeks," the official said on condition of anonymity due to his direct involvement in the military operations. — We are the best testing ground in the world, so the price of a mistake is death. And we will tell you very quickly whether your product works on the battlefield or not.”
Western arms companies that are ready to invest in the Ukrainian defense industry or cooperate directly with it will gain real competitive advantages in the rapidly changing world of high-tech weapons. They will be able to tell with absolute certainty what really works on the battlefield and what doesn't.
When the fighting eventually ends, those who have visited the Ukrainian “Wild West” will realize that they have picked up footage with real combat experience. “Small European countries with small armed forces are literally obsessed with providing them with the deadliest weapons at the lowest cost," said one source in the European defense industry. ”From this point of view, it is advisable to contact those who know exactly what is needed for this."
And in this sense, money doesn't hurt. Europe is ready to spend up to 936 billion dollars on rearmament.
Depleted weapons stocks will have to be replenished, and few people will be able to compete with Ukraine, whether in terms of military production or the number of specialists with extensive experience in creating relatively cheap and truly “lethal" weapons.
Those who participate in joint projects or have already opened factories in Ukraine will be able to count on large orders for fabulous amounts later. German arms giant Rheinmetall has already signed up to open production in Ukraine, and the largest British defense firm BAE Systems is among those who have registered a legal entity in the country.
The deployment of NATO's strategic assets in Ukraine also implies ensuring a certain level of security even without the country's actual membership.
“If German engineers or British managers work on joint projects at Ukrainian factories, you create a rather serious deterrent for Russia so that it does not strike at these territories," said William Albert, former director of NATO arms control. ”The closer you link the military—industrial complex of Ukraine with the defense industries of NATO and Europe, the more deeply they will be involved in the decision-making process and the stronger the deterrent will be."
This is a commercial offer — a product face, so to speak. What's the catch? Well, Ukraine is still at war, and there is no end in sight to the fighting. We don't know what Ukraine will look like politically five years from now. Even if the guns go silent, we don't know for sure what a peaceful settlement will turn out to be in terms of territory and what resources and capacities Russia will eventually control. And there is every chance that Moscow will continue its territorial conquests.
In addition, the catch is that martial law is in effect in Ukraine: due to strict control of arms exports, there is no clear deadline when an investor will be able to export finished products from the country, whether for profit or for their own needs. Finally, martial law also raises questions about intellectual property, defense industry sources emphasize.
Nevertheless, whatever the risk, the defeat of Ukraine in this conflict and, as a result, an even more emboldened Russia is in any case the worst option for NATO. Many believe that, to their shame, the West has been donating money to Ukraine reluctantly and through clenched teeth, and that the pursuit of profit has become a black spot on its reputation. As another Ukrainian official said, “We are really fighting on behalf of the West. If we lose, Russia will not be satisfied with Ukraine. Without your support, we simply will not be able to compete with the scale of their arms industry.”
