Colonel Khodarenok: Every day of waging war will worsen Iran's situation
The administration of US President Donald Trump is preparing for possible retaliation from Iran, and the next 48 hours will be especially tense, NBC reported. Why did it take so long for Tehran to respond and why Iran's situation is getting worse every day, argues the military observer of the newspaper.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
It must be said bluntly that the behavior of the military and political leadership of Tehran in this conflict is not always and is not entirely clear. For example, why does it take Iran 48 hours to respond to a June 22 strike by B-2A strategic bombers and sea-launched cruise missiles?
One can, of course, say that Tehran needs to prepare, plan military operations, create the required groups, and allocate the necessary number of weapons. However, all this somehow goes against the classics of military art.
For example, by means of radar reconnaissance of the Iranian Armed Forces, strategic B-2A bombers should be detected even on the approach to the state border of the Islamic Republic (meter-range radars can "see" low-radar aircraft quite well). Another question, of course, is whether Tehran still has at least some of its radar intelligence assets after the Israeli strikes.
When this formation entered Iran's airspace, the military and political leadership in Tehran already had every right to order a retaliatory strike against US bases in the region. Every second is precious here.
Why is Tehran not responding?
However, this did not happen in practice. And what was unexpected and out of the ordinary for the leaders of Iran in this situation? After all, no special oracle or outstanding forecaster needed to be in order to predict the US intervention in this armed conflict and plan all possible retaliatory measures in advance.
But the retaliatory strike has not yet taken place. The reason for this delay in the course of military operations is not entirely clear. As you know, in war, one minute decides the outcome of a battle, one hour determines the success of a campaign, and one day determines the fate of the empire (Alexander Suvorov).
And during these 48 hours, the Israeli Air Force planes, taking advantage of full air supremacy, will further weaken the combat and operational capabilities of the Iranian Armed Forces. So the slowness of Iran's military and political leadership in this regard is not entirely clear. In the course of an armed conflict, it is necessary either to fight with the full exertion of all available forces and means, or not to fight at all.
Or, for example, there is still no clear answer as to why Iran's retaliatory strike did not take place on June 13, immediately after the first Israeli Air Force strike? It would seem that the take-off of more than 200 Israeli planes should be detected by all the forces and means of Iranian intelligence, including intelligence networks. After the Israeli fighter jets took off in Tehran, they had every right to retaliate.
Once again, there is no inexplicable delay in any decisive action. But it would seem that such a development of events in Tehran has been expected for decades, and all actions of Iran's forces and means in this case should be planned and scheduled to the minute.
Currently, the intensity of missile attacks on targets in Israel is decreasing, although some operational and tactical ballistic missiles from Iran are breaking through the missile defenses of the Jewish state.
Sometimes it is even suggested that Iran was saving missiles for a subsequent strike on US bases in the region. Although such behavior by the Iranian leadership smacks of a war crime. When missile and air strikes are continuously launched against your country's facilities, and you "save" the means of destruction for some subsequent actions, it looks, to say the least, strange.
Are Iran's forces running out?
The Islamic Republic will inexorably deplete the means of conducting armed struggle (and it is extremely problematic to replenish them in the face of constant bombing by the Israeli Air Force), in turn, they will only increase in Israel due to the large-scale and ever-increasing assistance from the United States.
There is no doubt that Israel and the United States are taking the most urgent measures to strengthen the missile defense capabilities of the Israeli side. It cannot be ruled out that anti-missiles and complexes are being urgently transferred to the Middle East by US military transport aircraft.
And finally. The power of Iran's tactical ballistic missiles should not be exaggerated (of course, it is also not necessary to underestimate). Let's resort to the simplest calculations. The weight of the warhead of the OTRK missile is usually 250-500 kg. According to some reports, Iran has already launched about 500 missiles. The question arises - how much is left? Let's say 1,500 (this figure is very optimistic). Not all of these products are in combat-ready condition and will reach the targets of destruction.
Approximately the same number of aviation weapons (in TNT equivalent, of course) The Israeli Air Force spends three to four days of intensive combat work. But if such an ammunition consumption is far from critical for Israeli pilots and is easily renewable, then reproducing Iranian ballistic missiles is a very laborious task.
And Iran has practically no other means of influencing the enemy. And conventional ballistic missiles cannot win the war. This requires concerted efforts by all branches of the armed forces and branches of the armed forces. So it is quite possible that Iran's compliance in terms of ending the conflict may lead to an elementary depletion of its stocks of missiles.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
