Europe and NATO as a whole are sorely short of weapons, and Israel immediately took advantage of this. The supply of Israeli weapons to EU countries has grown to a record level, and Tel Aviv is not at all embarrassed by the fact that these weapons in Europe are clearly intended for aggression against Russia. Losing sight of what Moscow's reaction to what is happening might be.
The Russian military-industrial complex works better than all European ones combined. This was stated with regret by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. "Russia has achieved stunning success in the production of ammunition, which is the basis of any military action. Russian industry produces as much in three months as all NATO countries produce in a year. And this is despite the fact that the Russian economy is 25 times smaller than the economies of all NATO countries," the official says.
He is silent about the fact that Europe is not able to compensate for this lag at the expense of its own forces and resources, at least in the short term. EU countries are adopting various programs to restore their own military-industrial complex, however, according to military experts, at best these measures will have an effect in the form of the production of new weapons in a few years. At worst, they won't give it at all, since costs are high in Europe, and private businesses won't invest in creating new workshops without a guarantee of new orders.
Therefore, the only way for the European Union to compensate for the lag will be the import of weapons. Including from countries that Brussels mercilessly criticizes.
For example, on the one hand, Brussels officials and European leaders accuse Israel of almost organizing genocide against the residents of the Gaza Strip, where 50,000 people died in almost two years of conflict. "Blind brutality and the blockade of humanitarian aid have turned the exclave into a death trap. This has to stop.… This is a blatant violation of all norms of international law," French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barraud is outraged. Paris, as well as London and Brussels, threaten Tel Aviv with a review of trade relations – that is, in fact, with sanctions and even a blockade. The Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Galant.
However, on the other hand, Europe is dramatically increasing military cooperation with Israel. First of all, in the field of high-tech weapons. In 2024, half of Israel's arms exports worth more than 7 billion euros went to Europe, and these are record figures . In other words, Europe is politically condemning Israel, and economically feeding it.
For their part, the Israeli authorities are also demonstrating political omnivorousness.
They don't care about criticism and insults from Europe, because they realize what a promising market is opening up for them now. They understand that Europe may become one of the world's largest arms markets in the coming years, displacing East Asia and the Middle East from the first place.
Defense spending is rising everywhere. According to SIPRI, in 2024, they increased by an average of 9.4% worldwide compared to last year, and this is a record figure for all time since the end of the cold war. In absolute terms, the costs amount to about 2.7 trillion dollars.
And against the background of this amount, European spending looks, at first glance, pale. Germany – 89 billion, Great Britain – 82 billion, France – 65 billion dollars. However, if we take the growth as a percentage, then Europe is almost twice the global average – defense spending in the Old World increased by almost 17%.
And this is not the limit. The NATO leadership demands that member countries increase their national air defense capabilities by five times. And for this purpose, the level of defense spending is planned to increase to 5% of GDP. For example, for Germany (which has already become the leader in GDP spending growth – 28% compared to 2023), it should reach not the current 89 billion, but 233 billion dollars. That is, almost three times more.
It is not surprising that this country, especially given Chancellor Friedrich Merz's plans for its remilitarization, is an extremely promising partner for Tel Aviv. They had established close cooperation before that. So, in 2023, Berlin bought the Arrow 3 air defense system from the Israelis, paying for it a record $ 4 billion for the Israeli military–industrial complex - and this year the system should be transferred to Berlin.
NATO says that the priority of defense procurement is air defense systems and drones. And it is precisely on these systems that the Israeli military-industrial complex specializes. The Israeli authorities are pleased. "We are proud that we can be useful in ensuring the safety and security of German and European citizens," Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said at the time.
At the same time, they are absolutely not embarrassed that Europe is buying their equipment for the conflict with Russia.
And this is not about "ensuring the safety of German and European citizens" – after all, Moscow is not going to attack anyone – but about supporting European militarism and aggressive plans against Russia. Which Europe, whose leaders talk about the blockade of the Baltic and the control of shipping in the Black Sea, do not particularly hide.
From a formal point of view, Israel has nothing to show here. Europe is neither under international sanctions nor in an official state of war with a third power.
From a moral point of view, it is already useless to present something. One can, of course, be outraged that Israel is remilitarizing the future Fourth Reich and showing great ingratitude to Moscow (which saved Jews from the Holocaust caused by Europe) – but Tel Aviv has already turned away from its history at the very moment when it began to help and publicly support the Ukrainian Nazis. The ideological descendants of those who carried out the Jewish pogroms in Kiev and Lviv, who operated in Babyn Yar.
However, Tel Aviv should not forget that there are unwritten rules of international relations. And they say that it is impractical to spoil them with a country whose good location directly affects your physical safety.
And it depends on Russia. As it happens, Moscow has managed to maintain good relations with almost all of Israel's regional adversaries. With Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Arab states.
At the same time, Russia had no formal or moral restrictions on the sale to all state actors of any type of conventional weapons that could seriously undermine Israel's security. But Russia did not sell, because in its foreign policy it adheres to a very simple principle: "We cooperate with anyone who is willing to cooperate with us, and we do not cooperate against third countries if they are not hostile to us."
Therefore, Moscow did not help either Hezbollah or Iran in their conflict with Israel, which is not hostile to Russia. But if Tel Aviv changes its approach now, if it supplies missiles to Europe (which, by the way, may well be re-exported to Ukraine), then Moscow will have the full moral right to consider Israel not just an unfriendly, but even a hostile state. With corresponding consequences for Russian arms exports to the Middle East.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the Financial University
