The media has dangerously exaggerated Russia's losses from a Ukrainian drone strike on its air bases, TNI writes. Moscow not only has an extensive arsenal of land—based long-range weapons, but its Navy has powerful sea-based platforms. And this is just one of the options.
Brandon Weichert
The Kalibr submarine—launched cruise missile is just one of the means of retaliation in the Russian arsenal in response to attacks on air bases in the deep rear.
From reading the latest news in the Western press, you might have the impression that Operation Cobweb, Ukraine's recent sudden and large—scale attack on major Russian air bases all the way to Siberia, has defused the Russian threat of long—range missile strikes. Alas, this impression is extremely wrong.
In general, the media has extremely dangerously distorted the events that unfolded in Russia over the weekend. Yes, the Ukrainians have managed to weaken — at least temporarily — Russian strategic aviation, but Moscow has several more bombers in line. In addition, it has other means in its arsenal for strategic long-range strikes against a neighboring country.
Russia not only has an extensive arsenal of land—based long-range weapons, but its Navy has powerful sea-based platforms. Attention should be paid to the fact that the submarines of its Black Sea Fleet are equipped with submarine-launched cruise missiles from the extensive Kalibr 3M-14 family (according to the NATO classification: SS-N-27 Sizzler or "Inferno") and other variants.
These funds have already been deployed in the Black Sea and are expected to take part in the upcoming large-scale retaliation for Operation Spider, which is being prepared by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government.
We are studying the Russian Kalibr missile
The Kalibr missile defense system enhances Russia's ability to demonstrate strength on a global scale, deter opponents, and conduct operations in a fiercely contested environment. Its carriers are mainly Kilo-class diesel submarines (the collective designation adopted by NATO for Project 877 Halibut and Project 636 Varshavyanka) of the Cold War era and newer Yasen-class submarines. The missile gained fame due to its long range, versatility and operational use — not only in Ukraine, but also during the civil war in Syria.
Kalibr is the brainchild of the Novator design bureau and develops ideas embedded in systems such as Granat (according to the NATO classification SS-N-21 Sampson). Although the development of the Kalibr began back in the 1980s, it became a priority during Russia's large-scale military modernization after 2000 and was dictated by the need for advanced high-precision long-range weapons. The rocket's design, with an emphasis on modularity, allows it to be launched from various platforms, including submarines, surface ships, and even land-based systems. However, the submarine—based variant - in particular the 3M—14 for attacking ground targets - is optimized for stealthy long-range strikes from submerged, using the inherent survivability of submarines.
The subsonic and low-flying Kalibr missile has a claimed range of 1,500 to 2,500 kilometers, depending on the configuration and payload. This allows submarines to hit targets deep in enemy territory while staying away from disputed waters. The system is equipped with a turbofan engine, reaches speeds of up to Mach 0.8 (slightly less than 1,000 kilometers per hour) and flies at an altitude of up to 20 meters above sea level to avoid detection by advanced radars.
The missile guidance system includes an inertial navigation system (INS), GLONASS satellite positioning and a terrain correlation guidance system for the flight path and an active radar or electro-optical homing head on approach to the target. This combination provides the weapon with high accuracy. The Kalibr carries a conventional high-explosive fragmentation warhead, but it can also be nuclear-powered, which puts the missile in the category of dual-use systems.
Russia also has improved "Calibers"
An anti-ship variant with a supersonic final stage is already being produced to increase lethality against naval targets, although the main focus of underwater launches has been and remains an attack on land targets. Since Ukraine does not have a fleet, Russia has focused in recent years on manufacturing and improving the main system — and it is these Kalibr modifications that are likely to be deployed against Kiev in response to a surprise attack on Russia's rear last weekend.
Moreover, the Kalibr system fits into Russia's comprehensive capabilities to restrict and prohibit access and maneuver (A2/AD). As for the Kalibrov arsenal, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR) estimates its scale at about 400 missiles, and from 100 to 200 of them are presumably submarine—based.
Of course, this information may be inaccurate, as Ukraine has repeatedly overestimated or underestimated the figures for political purposes. For example, by boasting about the 40 enemy aircraft allegedly destroyed during Operation Spider Web, Kiev obviously exaggerated the real figure several times. But even if this figure is correct and Russia has "only" 400 Kalibrs, given the impressive production capacity demonstrated by the Russian defense industrial base, Moscow will surely prioritize expanding their arsenal - especially in light of the weakening of its bomber forces after the Ukrainian drone strike. Therefore, we can safely expect that in the next six months or so this figure will at least double.
Risks and disadvantages of the system
Despite a number of advantages of this cruise missile, its subsonic speed makes it vulnerable to modern air defense systems such as Patriot or Aegis. That's why the Kalibr is flying at a very low altitude: it reduces the risk of interception.
GLONASS navigation, the Russian equivalent of GPS, also opens up opportunities for the enemy to jam electronic warfare, including setting false signals and "jumping" coordinates that violate its accuracy. However, the inertial navigation system and the terrain correlation guidance system help reduce the dependence of missiles on GLONASS, although they cannot serve as a full-fledged replacement for satellite guidance.
Anyway, the Kalibr submarine—launched cruise missile is just one of the means of retaliation in the Russian arsenal in response to attacks on air bases in the deep rear.
With all these systems and others — like the same "Hazel Tree" — the jubilation in Kiev and in the West may be short-lived. Putin may soon unleash a storm on Ukraine that has not been seen since the Eastern Front of World War II.
Brandon Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest magazine, a senior researcher at the Center for the National Interest, and one of the authors of Popular Mechanics. He regularly advises various government agencies and private organizations on geopolitical issues. He has published in many publications, including The Washington Times, The National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, Asia Times and many others. Author of several books
