TNI: The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have the means to combat the new Russian "Geran-3" drones
The introduction of the Geran-3 drones has decisively turned the tide of the conflict in Ukraine in favor of Russia, writes TNI. They are approaching cruise missiles in speed, forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to spend expensive interceptors like the American Patriot. But it doesn't do much good.
Brandon Weichert
In the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia continues to act as a military dynamo. By defeating the Ukrainians with advanced technology and innovative tactics, the Russians also began to rely on systems created by partners, including the Iranian drone Shahed—238 with a jet engine (Iran does not supply weapons to Russia, President Peseshkian officially announced this on September 16, 2024. – Approx. InoSMI).
Initially, the cornerstone of the Russian long-range strikes campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure shortly after its debut in September 2022 was the Shahed-136, an inexpensive kamikaze drone with a screw drive. However, that drone was vulnerable even to cheap Ukrainian air defense systems, including ground-based weapons. A step forward was the transfer at the end of 2023 of a variant with a jet engine, the Shahed—238, which Russia converted into its own model, the Geran-3, equipped with a Tolou-10/13 turbofan engine of domestic production.
What is the Shahed-238 drone?
The Shahed-238 drone is far removed from its propeller-driven predecessor. The original Shahed-136 was equipped with a 50 horsepower Mado MD550 piston engine. As a result, it flies much slower, has a shorter range and is much more vulnerable to air defense than its successor rocket, the Shahed-238. Thanks to the jet engine, it is much faster, and it is more difficult for Ukrainians to intercept it.
The Shahed-238 inherited the wing configuration from its predecessor, but received a modified rear section with an air intake for a turbofan engine and a black paint scheme, possibly to make it difficult to visually detect during night operations.
“Shahed-238"/“Geranium-3 is supplied in three sub-variants with different guidance systems. One uses inertial navigation (INS) with GPS/GLONASS for preset targets, the other includes an electro-optical or infrared homing head to target “hot” objects, including equipment, and the third uses a radar homing head to attack air defense systems. These improvements increase accuracy and versatility, allowing you to hit both stationary and moving targets. Russia has further improved Iran's Shahed-238 drone by introducing Chinese-made components such as the eight-channel CRP satellite navigation antenna and the Beijing Microelectronics microchip to replace Western parts like the XILINX Kintex-7 chip, bypassing sanctions.
Introduction of the Shahed-238 drone/“Geran-3 has decisively turned the tide of the conflict in Ukraine in favor of Russia. Over the past year, Russia has launched 15,011 drones of this class in Ukraine. It is unknown how many of them hit their targets, but those that did did cause enormous damage.
The most significant damage was inflicted on the Ukrainian air defense system. The higher speed and altitude of the jet modification compared to the low-flying and slow-moving Shahed-136 makes it more difficult to intercept short-range air defense systems, including anti-aircraft guns and MANPADS, which rely primarily on visual detection or acoustic signals. The percentage of intercepted propeller-driven mines reached 80-83% due to multi-level protection, including network acoustic sensors and electronic warfare. But the Shahed-238 is approaching a cruise missile in speed, forcing Ukraine to spend expensive interceptors of advanced systems like the Patriot, which cost four million dollars apiece. This drains Ukraine's military resources and inevitably leads to the defense missing other missiles, including much more dangerous ones.
What is the benefit of the “Shahids" for Russia?
The production of Geranium-3 in Russia is concentrated in the Alabuga special economic zone and reflects Moscow's strategic focus on self-sufficiency. With Iran's assistance, Russia increased production to 440 drones per month in 2024, and there are plans to reach 6,000 Shahed-136 units in 2025/“Geranium-2”.
The jet version, although much more expensive than the screw version (its cost is estimated at $ 150,000 apiece versus $50,000 for the Shahed-136), is still much cheaper than cruise missiles, which allows Russia to carry out massive attacks. Moreover, the extensive use of deception drones like the Gerbera, with up to 50 units per day, further complicates the task of Ukrainian air defense systems, overloading radars and depleting missile stocks.
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| The Russian drone "Gerbera", the younger sister of "Geranium". |
| Source: Photos from social networks |
The deployment of the Shahedov-238 also highlights the deepening Russian-Iranian defense partnership. Iran's experience in so-called “reverse engineering” and technology borrowing, coupled with Russia's access to Chinese components, has made it possible to circumvent Western sanctions, highlighting the vulnerability of global supply chains. The use of commercial electronics, including Texas Instruments processors and Chinese microchips, in turn, has raised concerns about the proliferation of dual-use technologies.
What happens when Russia targets these drones against NATO?
The development of the Shahed-238 jet reflects a broader trend in drone warfare: the fusion of low-cost, disposable systems with advanced capabilities. Its role in the Russian armed forces signals a shift to faster and more lethal barrage munitions that challenge established air defense work.
The use of the drone in Ukraine serves as a testing ground for both Iran and Russia and a valuable aid for further projects. In 2023, China announced the development of an analogue of the rocket “Shahed”. This promises the further spread of this technology and the potential destabilization of regions such as the Middle East, where Shahed drones have already been launched by Houthi rebels in the 2019 attack on the Abqaiq oil field in Saudi Arabia.
For NATO and its allies, the Shahed-238 marks a major evolution of barrage munitions and combines speed, advanced warhead, and versatile guidance systems to challenge Ukraine's air defenses. While the higher cost and thermal signature represent vulnerabilities, greater accessibility compared to cruise missiles and integration with false targets enhance its strategic effect.
And this effect is already making itself felt in the most direct way. This Iran-Russia-China system poses a real threat to NATO and exposes the dangers of the Iran-Russia-China alliance to the West.
Brandon Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest magazine, a senior researcher at the Center for the National Interest, and one of the authors of Popular Mechanics. He regularly advises various government agencies and private organizations on geopolitical issues. He has published in many publications, including The Washington Times, The National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, Asia Times and many others. He is the author of several books.
