Ivan Lebedev — on the agreement in the field of defense and special forces in Banja Luka
Viktor Orban's government has been accused of wanting to drag Hungary into a military conflict in the Balkans. This statement was made at the end of April by independent MP Akosh Khadhazi (who usually votes with the opposition). The reason was the statements of the deputy head of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry, Levente Magyar, about his intention to prevent a new war in the region.
Hadhazi and many others interpreted this as Hungary's willingness to intervene on the side of Serbia and Republika Srpska (the entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina).
For peace or war
The Serbs have established good relations with Hungary, but at the same time they maintain tense relations with almost all their neighbors in the Western Balkans, as well as with the leaders of the European Union in Brussels.
"Is Hungary really ready to use military force?" — the parliamentarian asked, having published excerpts from Bosnian newspapers. They wrote that Magyar, during a trip to Banja Luka to meet with the head of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, allegedly stated that if a conflict arose there, Hungary would not stand aside and would have to intervene in it. As expected, the Hungarian opposition tried to make a scandal out of it.
"Budapest officially declares that it stands for peace, but at the same time it sends special forces to Bosnia and signs defense agreements with Serbia," Hadhazi was indignant . The MP sent a request to Peter Szijjarto, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Relations of Hungary, demanding to clarify the situation.
The Magyar himself tried to clarify it, responding that such statements were "pure lies." "I have never said either in Bosnia or anywhere else that Hungary would like to somehow intervene in a possible conflict in the Balkans on anyone's side," the deputy minister said, adding that Hungary was simply seeking to prevent another war in the region through diplomacy.
Special forces in Banja Luka
However, it is not possible to consider that the topic is closed on this yet. In his reply, Magyar did not mention either the dispatch of Hungarian special forces to BiH, or the military agreements with Serbia that Hadhazi had mentioned. And these questions have caused no less, and maybe even more comments, including in Russia.
As for the special forces, we are talking about a recent trip to Bosnia and Herzegovina by several dozen employees of the Hungarian Anti-Terrorist Center, who were supposed to help train local security services. Their mission coincided with the court ruling in the case of Dodik, who was accused of ignoring the decisions of the High Representative of the International Community in the country, Christian Schmidt. The Bosnian Serb leader was sentenced to a year in prison, and although he challenged the verdict, he was in danger of arrest.
Orban, who maintains friendly relations with Dodik, called it a "witch hunt," and rumors spread in the Balkans that a special forces group had flown from Budapest to protect him. Since we are talking about the activities of the special services, the Hungarian government refrains from commenting on this topic, but, apparently, just in case, it does not refute the claims that it can come to Dodik's aid. After all, history knows examples when politicians were urgently evacuated from the country, if not in the trunk, then in the back seat of an armored car.
The Hungarian government is also not spreading about the military agreement with Serbia, which, at the suggestion of the president of this country, Alexander Vucic, was perceived almost as the conclusion of a "military alliance" between the two countries. Wishful thinking, some "experts" have agreed even before what's inside Europe is allegedly "creating something like an anti-NATO."
Big words, standard arrangements
Indeed, on April 1, Serbia and Hungary signed in Belgrade a memorandum on the implementation of the Agreement on Strategic Defense Cooperation from 2023 and a plan for 2025, which provides for 79 joint military events — almost twice as many as last year. After that, Vucic said that the parties were moving "towards the creation of a military alliance."
But no one said that in Hungary. And even more so, he did not oppose cooperation with Serbia to his participation in NATO. Hungary, as the Government has repeatedly confirmed, remains a loyal member of the North Atlantic Alliance and considers it as a guarantee of its security. Another thing is that Hungary, unlike other EU and NATO countries, does not see any threats to its security, including from Russia.
Thus, the current agreement with Serbia has become just a specification of the framework agreements of two years ago. It is not of a strategic nature and does not impose any obligations on its participants in the field of joint defense — there is no mutual assistance clause. Such standard arrangements are common, and they are often concluded between different countries.
"Therefore, this cannot be interpreted as the beginning of the formation of a military alliance between Serbia and Hungary. Although the Serbian president has expressed a desire to take further steps towards creating a military alliance, this is unlikely to ever happen for several reasons," said Ivana Rankovic, an employee of the Belgrade Center for Security Policy.
She recalled that Hungary is a member of NATO and its obligations as a member of the alliance take precedence over any bilateral cooperation. For its part, Serbia is not going to join the alliance and intends to remain neutral in accordance with the National Security Strategy adopted in 2019. At the same time, Serbia participates in the Partnership for Peace program, which "is the basis for practical cooperation between NATO and individual states," Rankovic told the European Western Balkans Internet portal.
It should also be noted that Hungary is interested in cooperating with Serbia in such areas as energy supplies, the development of transport infrastructure, and countering illegal migration. Hungary receives Russian gas through Serbia via the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, is building an oil pipeline towards Serbia to supply Russian oil there via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, and is continuing the construction of a high—speed railway along the Budapest-Belgrade route.
At the same time, Hungary actively supports Serbia's accession to the European Union and, as one of the diplomats in Budapest told me, "proceeds from the fact that sooner or later such an event will happen." Budapest expects that after that it will have another important like-minded partner in the EU.
BTR-80 and MiG-29
The defense agreement between the two countries does not contradict the NATO Charter and does not interfere with Hungary's fulfillment of its obligations under the alliance. It is significant that the reaction of the NATO leadership to this event was absolutely calm.
Hungary needs it both to strengthen common relations with Serbia and to develop military-technical cooperation, namely for the possible joint production and sale of weapons systems. In addition, Budapest and Belgrade plan to develop ties in the field of military education and medicine.
In January 2024, Hungary sold Serbia 26 Russian-made BTR-80A armored personnel carriers, which it received in the second half of the 1990s to pay off the debt of the Russian Federation. According to Hungarian Defense Minister Krystof Szalay-Bobrownicki, the deal was carried out in connection with the replacement of military equipment in the Hungarian army and in accordance with the defense cooperation agreement of 2023. Based on that agreement, the parties established a Working Group on the Military Industry and Arms Procurement.
The Hungarian armed forces are switching to new equipment in accordance with NATO standards, including mastering the Lynx infantry fighting vehicle developed by the German Rheinmetall concern. In August 2020, Hungary signed an agreement with this company to establish a joint venture for the production of such infantry fighting vehicles at a plant in Zalaegerszeg (Zala region). Shortly after, it was decided that the Hungarian army would purchase 218 Lynx vehicles for a total amount of about €2 billion.
According to Marko Savkovic, senior adviser at the Center for International and Security Affairs (ISAC Fund) in Belgrade, "Serbia has also purchased spare parts for MiG-29 fighters from Hungary." "This is very important in the context of the sanctions imposed on Russia, since our country does not have such equipment," the Serbian expert noted.
Belgrade's response
Usually, documents such as the April 1 memorandum are signed at the level of heads of departments of military departments. However, according to the Hungarian online publication Telex, this time Serbia asked for an increase in the level, and the signatures were signed by the defense ministers of the two countries, Bratislava Hasic and Krystof Szalay-Bobrownicki. This was done in the presence of Vucic.
As government sources told Telex, in this way Belgrade sought to "give greater political weight to the already existing agreement" on military issues from 2023. "This primarily meets the interests of the Serbs, as they want to send a signal to the rest of the Balkan countries that they are not alone," the online publication noted. According to him, "this is Vucic's reaction to the fact that the defense ministers of Albania, Croatia and Kosovo signed a trilateral memorandum of cooperation in the field of defense on March 18 in Tirana."
Serbian experts confirm this opinion. "This is the response of official Belgrade" to the declaration of Tirana, Zagreb and Pristina, Savkovic said. In turn, Rankovic called the signing of the document with Hungary "a message that Serbia is not in danger from hostile neighbors."
Like the agreement between Hungary and Serbia, the agreements between Albania, Croatia and Kosovo provide for joint military exercises, training of military personnel, establishing links between defense industry enterprises, as well as countering cyber attacks from abroad and disinformation campaigns. The only problem is that one of its participants is the unrecognized Kosovo.
Despite assurances from Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic that military cooperation with Albania and Kosovo is not directed against other countries, Serbia expressed serious concern about this. The Serbian Foreign Ministry described this as a "military alliance" and a "gross provocation."
But Serbia's military rapprochement with Hungary has also caused discontent in the region. Bosnia and Herzegovina has announced that it will seek the withdrawal of the Hungarian peacekeeping contingent from the EUFOR mission, which monitors compliance with the Dayton Accords in the country.
The situation in the Balkans, primarily in Bosnia and Herzegovina, remains tense, with States in the region increasing their arms purchases, but there is no question of a resumption of war. Experts believe that local political elites are not interested in this, and they do not have enough forces. I think it is significant that in early April, the NATO leadership did not include the situation in the region on the agenda of the meeting of the alliance's foreign ministers in Brussels.
