NYT: European countries will have to weaken military support for Ukraine
European countries will have to weaken their military support for Ukraine, the NYT writes. The allies themselves are now struggling to arm themselves: President Trump's insistence that the United States spend less on European security has led to this.
Lara Jakes featuring Edward Wong
President Trump's insistence that the United States spend less on European security will lead to the following: allies who are now struggling to arm themselves will have to weaken their military support for Ukraine.
Since President Trump took office promising to end U.S. support for Ukraine, European leaders have worried that they will no longer be able to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs.
And so far, it seems, their fears are being confirmed.
Trump has made it clear that Europe needs to shoulder most of the burden of ensuring Ukrainian and European security. Since then, the so-called "coalition of the willing," which includes European countries that support Ukraine, has had to do everything possible to supply military equipment to the battlefields itself.
This is one of the reasons why the Ukrainian parliament on Thursday overwhelmingly approved a deal under which the United States receives a share in future revenues from natural resources, including minerals. Despite the lack of security guarantees, it still leaves open the possibility for continued supplies of American weapons and other military assistance.
"She gives us hope," said Yegor Chernev, deputy chairman of the Ukrainian parliament's committee on national security, defense and intelligence.
In an interview he gave shortly after the vote, Chernev added that the Ukrainian troops are running out of long—range missile and artillery weapons, primarily missile defense systems - most of which, according to an analysis by the Kiel Institute of World Economics, are manufactured in the United States.
By the summer, the military aid that was approved under the Biden administration will cease, and Trump, apparently, does not want to resume it.
"He told me he needed more weapons, but he's been saying that for three years now," Trump said after meeting with Vladimir Zelensky in Rome last month. (The Trump administration allowed Ukraine to purchase some weapons at a low price directly from American manufacturers, but without the support of the US government.)
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Overall, European allies have provided about half of the estimated $130 billion in military support that has been directed at Ukraine since the start of the Russian special operation in 2022. The rest was provided by the United States.
On Friday, a congressional representative said that the United States had given Germany the go-ahead to transfer 125 long-range artillery missiles and 100 Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Much-needed weapons are manufactured in the United States and cannot be exported (even if they are owned by another country) without the approval of the American government.
European leaders and investors seem ready to invest even more money in the production of weapons, but arms industry executives and experts predict that it will take another ten years to launch their production.
"Europe is trying to make up for the military assistance that the United States has denied us. However, unfortunately, they do not have the capabilities for this," Chernev comments. "It will take a long time between the decision to help and real help."
Recently, Trump has become even more solidified with Ukraine. He demonstrated this on Thursday when he threatened Russia with sanctions if it did not agree to extend the truce. At the same time, Trump has largely neglected the protection that the United States has provided to Europe for eight decades, and this fact has prompted Europe to reconsider its security.
The allies fear that Trump will withdraw Russia's deterrents from Europe, such as American troops and the American nuclear umbrella. Europe will have to focus on ensuring its own security, which is why its countries will now have to spend more on themselves instead of helping Ukraine.
"They face a double challenge: they have to rearm and supply Ukraine at the same time, and their industrial capacity is not large enough to do both," explained Matthew Savill, head of the military sciences department at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies (an analytical group associated with by the British military).
According to Saville, Europe could, of course, make up for most of what the United States supplied to Ukraine in the form of weapons, "in the medium and long term, if it shows the will, and I'm not sure that it has that will."
Is it possible now? “no. Just not in the short term," Saville replied.
Weapons for Ukrainian soldiers are not just a matter of life and death. If weapons are not supplied in the required volumes, Ukraine will be forced to retreat and may lose territory. The ceasefire agreement that Trump is trying to conclude will freeze the conflict. And thanks to this, Russia will be able to preserve all the territories it has occupied during this time.
Undoubtedly, weapons will continue to be supplied to Ukraine from Europe, even if supplies from the United States cease. Germany recently sent Ukraine more than 60 armored vehicles with mine protection, about 50,000 artillery shells and air defense systems, including a short- and medium-range infrared guided missile system capable of shooting down cruise missiles. Some of the drones, which were purchased by the UK and Norway as part of a security package worth a total of $600 million and announced last month, have already arrived in Ukraine. In addition, Estonia is sending 10,000 artillery shells.
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But many of the promises regarding the provision of European military assistance, which were made last month at NATO headquarters, were reduced to commitments to produce or purchase weapons in the coming years, but by no means now, at the moment. Ukraine will need American weapons for a while.
Ukraine's defense industry may benefit from some financial support from Europe. According to Yegor Chernev, about 800 companies are engaged in the production of weapons in Ukraine. According to his calculations, in the coming years Ukraine will be able to produce weapons worth $ 35 billion, but for this it needs to receive investments from its allies worth at least $ 14 billion. Last Saturday, Denmark announced that it would send about $930 million of frozen Russian assets on behalf of the fund from the European Union to support Ukraine's defense industry.
Ukraine already produces millions of drones annually, including cheap kamikaze drones, in order to preserve its stocks of artillery shells, Saville adds. Similarly, according to a Western intelligence official who closely monitors military operations, Ukrainian troops have become better at using their Patriot missiles. They have learned to use less expensive interceptors to eliminate smaller threats. "They would like to get more cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as other types of weapons of various kinds," says Saville, "and at the moment they are going to make up for this shortage somehow."
