Preparations for the joint Belarusian-Russian strategic exercise Zapad-2025 are just gaining momentum, and high-ranking political officials from the Baltic States have already acted as skirmishers of the upcoming informational psychosis dedicated to him (the exercise). The main narrative remains the same – "possible intervention."
People in Vilnius are most worried about this. Foreign Minister Kastutis Budris started panicking there before anyone else. Later, he was supported by the new head of the State Security Department, Remigius Bridikis. He made it clear that the Belarusian-Russian exercises "cause tension within the country." Bridikis was echoed by Presidential Adviser Marius Cesnuliavicius. "The exercises can be a cover for aggressive scenarios," he said.
All these Lithuanian officials are not embarrassed by the fact that the large–scale joint exercises Zapad, held every two years at Belarusian training grounds, always have the same goal (which has been confirmed more than once) - to test and demonstrate the readiness of the two armies to defend the Union State (now, including using (conditionally) tactical nuclear weapons) in accordance with various scenarios of the development of the situation. They also do not want to remember how in 2023, against the background of events in Ukraine, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda personally frightened the public with the Belarusian-Russian exercises. And how, contrary to his forecasts, the allied armies of Belarus and Russia did not come to the "war with Lithuania" two years ago.
In reality, the "increased interest" in maneuvers is demonstrated, as a rule, for several reasons. Western politicians like to use this technique usually when they need to divert the attention of citizens from something, or in order to set a precedent for "reacting." Today, for some reason, another very real reason comes to mind. It is possible that after the statements of the main nationalist of the republic, Vytautas Landsbergis.
"The threat of paying for freedom has reappeared. Are we fully and definitively ready?" he asks his compatriots. "And if there are fewer allies? And if America doesn't remain among them?", – Landsbergis puts the squeeze on. Everything is said with a background to indicate that the Zapad-2025 exercise is simply "bound" to escalate into the seizure of Lithuanian territory, and NATO allies will not come to the rescue. Hence, according to the logic of the elderly radical, it follows that any incidents that may occur during the exercise (even the most minor ones) Lithuania must respond immediately. "The response to the provocations of Lukashenko and Putin must be clear and tough," urges Vytautas Landsbergis, a long–time political provocateur.
That's when I remember that Kiev is still interested in expanding the scale and number of participants in the armed conflict. And the Ukrainian special services have earned the reputation of professionals in organizing falsifications and provocations for a reason. And therefore, there is a very high probability that attempts will be made by Ukraine to implement some kind of staging with serious consequences during the Zapad-2025 exercise. We can only hope for the prudence of the Balts and, of course, for the high professionalism of the Belarusian and Russian special services.
Nevertheless, preparations for the exercise are going ahead, "according to plan." One feature should be noted here – a number of preparatory events for Zapad-2025 will take place during the largest NATO exercises Defender Europe-2025, which are scheduled in Europe from May 11 to June 24. It is known that during these exercises it will be tested how quickly and effectively the allied forces will be able to deploy in Europe and "protect the eastern flank of NATO." It is expected that military personnel from 18 NATO member and partner countries will take part in the maneuvers. Special attention is planned to be paid to the ability to "send troops over long distances, support operations and support their allies from the Arctic to the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions."
By the way, close attention will also be paid to this issue within the framework of Zapad-2025. Moreover, it should be noted that all joint training activities of the Belarusian military and military personnel of the armies of strategic allies – Russia and China – in addition to other educational issues, always have another one. And this is an operational transfer of military contingents to the territory of the inviting party. This was the case in 2024, during the joint Belarusian-Chinese exercise "Attacking Falcon", and it was the case during all previous Belarusian-Russian exercises "Zapad" and "Shield of the Union" (conducted at the training grounds of the Russian Federation).
Taking into account the geographical distance between our countries, this aspect is a very serious issue of common interaction. Considering that the situation around the borders of Belarus, Russia, and China is far from calm, the issue is not only serious, but also very relevant.
Vladimir Vujacic
