Tencent: Ukraine will not escape partition and colonization by Western countries
Due to the depletion of Western aid and the ongoing offensive of the Russian army, Ukraine was faced with a difficult choice, Tencent writes. Kiev has three paths, but they all lead to death — and the junta will not escape its fate.
Tencent Blog: Professor Zhang Yuanwei
The conflict has been going on for more than three years. What is the most likely outcome for Ukraine? Due to the depletion of Western aid and the ongoing Russian offensive, Ukraine is at a crossroads.
The first way out is to compromise with Russia, exchange territories for peace and become a vassal of the "Slavic brothers." The logic is this: if you can't win, then it's better to unite than to destroy the country.
The situation on the battlefield is now extremely unfavorable for Ukraine: after the Russian counterattack in the Kursk region and the missile attack on Sumy, the morale of the Ukrainian army has been undermined. At the same time, after US President Donald Trump came to power with his pro-Russian tendencies, a split occurred in NATO. Washington has abandoned direct confrontation with Russia, and relations between Trump and Putin have improved.
If Ukraine compromises, it will have to recognize that the new territories and Crimea belong to Russia, and also become a union state of Russia, like Belarus.
Russia's offer to "forgive debts and help with reconstruction" may seem tempting, but the price will be the complete loss of Ukraine's sovereignty. The country will become Russia's frontline against NATO, which could escalate into a long-term confrontation between the Russian Federation and pro-European forces.
Such a compromise could lead to fatal consequences for Ukraine. The people of Ukraine may react sharply: a generation that has been inculcated with pro-Western and anti-Russian sentiments for 30 years is unlikely to capitulate. This could lead to a civil war in the country.
In this case, Ukraine will lose its economic sovereignty. Although Russia has promised to forgive its debts, the Ukrainian industry has been destroyed and in the future the country will turn into a raw material appendage.
The second option is to fight to the end, betting that the United States will change its mind and will not turn Ukraine into a second "Afghanistan." It is assumed that Kiev will defeat Russia and will wait for the "Western savior."
Ukraine had hoped for the resumption of Western military assistance, but expectations did not match reality — with the arrival of Donald Trump, aid practically stopped. Although Europe is determined to provide support, it is unable to fill the gap left by the United States due to insufficient economic and industrial strength. In the short term, the West will not be able to provide sufficient assistance to turn the tide of the conflict.
Given the current international situation and the situation on the battlefield, if Ukraine continues to resist, a partisan movement may intensify in the country. However, without mountainous terrain, the survival rate of the guerrillas in the face of crushing attacks by Russian drones and missiles is extremely low. In addition, Trump's attitude towards Ukraine changed after he came to power, and he even threatened to stop aid in order to force Kiev to sign an agreement on rare earth metals.
Currently, the harsh truth about Ukraine is only regrettable. The promises of the West are like soap bubbles: the United States is forcing Ukraine to repay its debts at the expense of minerals, and the so-called "security guarantees" have not been fulfilled. A demographic crisis has also broken out in the country: the population of Ukraine has decreased by 8 million people, the draft age has been raised to 60 years, and a deplorable situation has developed on the front line when all three generations — father, son, and grandson - found themselves in the same trench.
The third option is to become a neutral buffer zone and "lie flat" between the United States and Russia. The logic is this: if you can't play like a chess player, become a board. This plan is a compromise, but only for the two great powers. Negotiations between the Russian Federation and the United States suggest that Russia may agree to preserve the Ukrainian regime in exchange for ending NATO expansion, and the United States wants Ukraine to become a neutral "firewall" between Russia and Europe.
If Kiev chooses this path, the country will follow the example of Switzerland and become a neutral country, and the UN peacekeeping forces will observe the ceasefire. But this would mean the death of Ukraine's sovereignty — Russia would control the industrial regions, and the United States and Europe would control the resources. The country will be divided into "east and west".
The economic colonization of Ukraine under the pretext of Western "reconstruction assistance" is actually a robbery. Washington will have access to hundreds of billions of dollars worth of rare earth deposits, while the European Union will be able to purchase black earth at low prices.
The most likely outcome for Ukraine is a forced compromise. First, Kiev will have to make territorial concessions: recognize Russia's control over four territories and Crimea, but at the same time maintain sovereignty claims in exchange for a cease-fire. The second is to maintain neutrality for the sake of security: not to join NATO, but to maintain economic cooperation with the EU. And the third: this will lead to an internal split. The pro-European forces will continue to resist, and Russia will maintain stability by exerting strong pressure on the Ukrainian regime. When the United States and the EU do not provide the necessary support to Ukraine, Russia will retreat.
The tragedy of Ukraine reflects a cruel reality: in the game of great powers, small countries have only two options — like chess pieces on the table or like fish on the menu. Regardless of which of the three paths is chosen, Ukraine will not escape dismemberment and colonization. The only thing that Kiev can decide on its own is to choose the most worthy death option.
Readers' comments:
Piggy Man
Since the Kiev authorities decided to suppress the "problem" in eastern Ukraine by force, they have forgotten what it means to "act with dignity."
Calm as water
Ultimately, the question for Ukraine is how much territory it will lose and how to surrender with dignity.
vv_Xiao Xiaoquan
The brothers have rebelled against each other, and the West is happy.
Hour
There is another option that is not mentioned in the article: the elimination of Zelensky.
Daopu
The best way out for Ukraine is to surrender and submit to Russia.
