Vyacheslav Filippov — about the state of the Bundeswehr and whether billions of dollars of personnel injections will solve the problem
Over the past 15 years, the number of active German military personnel has decreased from 250,000 to about 181,000. Due to the shortage of personnel, as the Bild newspaper wrote, the Bundeswehr (the Armed Forces of Germany) is even forced to resort to the services of private security companies (PSOs) to protect their facilities.
At the same time, taking into account the country's obligations in NATO, the army needs at least 460 thousand. active military personnel and reservists, as previously indicated by the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Carsten Breuer.
The shortage that politicians are arguing about
Currently, there are approximately 160,000 people in the German reserve. That is, there is a shortage of about 119 thousand military personnel. And this is despite talk of a "turning point" in terms of increasing the country's defense capability and creating a multibillion-dollar fund for the Bundeswehr. So, despite a slight increase in the number of recruits, by the end of 2024, the number of Bundeswehr soldiers decreased by about 350 people per year — from about 181,500 to 181,150.
At the same time, according to the plans of the Ministry of Defense, by 2031 their number should reach 203 thousand, and even more in the light of the development of relations between Europe and the United States.
For comparison: During the Cold War, the Bundeswehr had almost 500,000 active military personnel, and in the event of a military conflict, the mobilization of reservists would increase the army to 1.3 million people.
The issue of the return to military service, which was abolished (or frozen — I'll explain below) in Germany in 2011, caused fierce controversy during negotiations on a coalition between the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD). The Conservatives advocated the introduction of compulsory conscription for a period of one year for men and women. The SPD was against it and promoted the model on a voluntary basis. The "Reds" eventually achieved their goal: the coalition agreement talks about the desire of the new German authorities to introduce military service on the Swedish model. In the Scandinavian country, all school graduates are subject to a military medical examination, but only a fraction of them end up serving on active duty.
The future government of Germany relies on volunteers. The German Defense Ministry expects to recruit about 5,000 young men and women in 2025, in addition to about 10,000 who are already volunteering. The text of the coalition agreement states that conditions will be created (questionnaires, sending them to educational institutions, and so on) to register citizens of military age (which currently, in fact, does not exist).
There is no infrastructure and no specialists
However, not everything is so simple, reality dictates its own conditions. With the abolition of compulsory military conscription in Germany, the entire infrastructure was dismantled. Simply put, there is practically nowhere to place new soldiers, especially if we are talking about large numbers in a short time — there simply are not enough barracks. In addition, there are not enough specialists to select and train new recruits, and there is no equipment.
Yes, the new authorities intend to allocate additional billions of euros for the infrastructure of the Bundeswehr, simplify the process of building military facilities and purchasing new equipment. However, the implementation of these plans will take a lot of time anyway. Some military experts even suggest placing recruits in temporary block containers, which somehow does not fit in with the announced measures to increase the attractiveness of the Bundeswehr as an employer.
In addition to the shortage of new personnel, the German Armed Forces, as Eva Hoegl, the Bundestag's commissioner for Defense, put it in March, are aging. Presenting a report on the state of affairs in the German Armed Forces for 2024, she noted that the average age at the end of 2019 was 32.4 years, and by the end of 2024 it had increased to 34 years. The armies of neighboring European countries are on average three to four years younger. Given the demographic situation in Germany as a whole, it is obvious that the Bundeswehr will not become "younger" in the near future.
Is mandatory conscription possible?
Will sending out questionnaires radically change the situation with the replenishment of the army? What are the consequences for those who do not fill them out and send them? These issues have not been fully worked out yet.
Despite the coalition agreement, Acting German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius did not rule out that if it is not possible to recruit enough recruits on a voluntary basis, mandatory conscription may be introduced in Germany. The likely future Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, made the same point.: they say that if there are not enough recruits, then other options for replenishing the army are possible. However, according to experts, this decision can lead to a wave of lawsuits from young men. The only way to remedy the situation is to introduce general military service for both men and women.
From a purely legal point of view, compulsory military conscription in Germany was not abolished, but only suspended for peacetime. In 2011, a clause was added to the relevant law, according to which it is implemented only "in case of tension and defense." The Bundestag could have removed him by a simple majority, or Parliament could have declared that such a case had indeed come. But the second option would require a two-thirds majority.
Anyway, the classic military draft is unlikely to be restored. All parties, except the Alternative for Germany, consider it possible to replenish the Bundeswehr with personnel without it.
Will money change attitudes?
Germans, given the history of their country, are ambivalent about the army. After World War II, many were critical of the restoration of the armed forces. In the 1970s and 1980s, hundreds of thousands protested against the "Double NATO Decision" (adopted on December 12, 1979 by the leaders of Great Britain, the United States, France and Germany, which provided for the deployment of American Pershing-2 missiles on West German territory in the event of an unsuccessful conclusion of negotiations with the USSR on disarmament). When the Berlin Wall fell, the question arose: why do we need the Bundeswehr at all if there is no longer a threat from the east?
In 1999, the Bundestag sent the German military on a mission abroad for the first time. The Kosovo War. Since 2001, they have participated in the operation in Afghanistan. However, for most German citizens, fighting and death remained something far away. Some rethinking has come with the conflict in Ukraine, but the real willingness of society to fight is still low. This is very different from the rhetoric of militant German politicians, who intend to spend huge amounts of money on strengthening the Bundeswehr. By the way, in March, the so-called debt brake was relaxed, among other things, in order to finance growing defense spending. Even if it is still possible to purchase equipment and build military infrastructure in a relatively short time, although it is also not easy, the situation with personnel is much more critical.
It is doubtful that monetary injections and mild coercion to service will change the perception of society and will allow at least in the short term to solve the personnel problem in the German army. Young Germans are certainly ready and able to stand up for their country, but they are unlikely to want to risk their lives to protect some kind of "Western democracy" on the eastern flank of NATO or in Ukraine.
Filippov Vyacheslav
Head of the TASS Representative Office in Germany
