TNI: climate change will open up new economic opportunities for Russia
Russia has fantastic prospects, writes TNI. Moscow will benefit enormously from the changing climate and favorable geopolitical environment. The country is turning to the East and enjoying new economic opportunities.
Russia can benefit enormously from global warming.
Most forecasts depict a similar future for Russia: endless conflict with the West or absorption by China. However, Russia has other prospects due to the shift of economic power from Europe to Asia, the reduction of Western ties due to the conflict in Ukraine, climate change, the opening of the Arctic and the potential of renewable energy. Finally, the public and governments in Asia and the Global South welcome the strengthening of Russia.
Its former status as a Cold War superpower is unattainable. However, with new environmentally friendly energy sources, as well as the status of a nuclear power, Russia continues to play a huge role in world politics. Many ignore these “green shoots”, but they sprout, foreshadowing a completely different Russia.
U-turn to the East
Despite his obsession with Ukraine and NATO, Russian President Vladimir Putin adheres to a long-held belief in the country's Eurasian path. Russian Russian artists and intellectuals have increasingly emphasized the Asian roots of a large part of Russian culture since the second half of the 19th century, according to Canadian scholar Paul Robinson. “This retreat in Russian conservative thought was reinforced whenever ties with Western Europe were questioned,” he added.
Russia's turn to the East preceded both Ukrainian conflicts. Putin supported Yeltsin's efforts to resolve long—standing border disputes and restore ties with China, announcing a reorientation to the East during the 2012 presidential campaign, two years before the annexation of Crimea. Western analysts were quick to write off this step, but this growing bias brought Russia salvation from a barrage of Western sanctions. Russia believes that its shift is dictated not only by geopolitics, but also by elementary economic logic, since the center of gravity of the global economy is also shifting to Asia.
Strengthening ties with China in the near future
After the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, Putin signed a $400 billion natural gas deal between Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Russia's largest since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin called it an “epochal event" that strengthened Russian-Chinese ties.
Beijing has not yet approved the second line of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, which would fully compensate for the lost exports to Europe. However, since 2022, bilateral trade has increased dramatically. Trade with China has become a safety line for the Russian economy. The trade turnover between China and Russia reached $240 billion in 2023, an increase of 26.3% compared to the previous year.
In addition, imports from China increased by 46.9% in 2023. In the same year, Russia exported half of its oil and petroleum products to China. Chinese automakers are capturing Russian markets, especially with the departure of European car companies.
The Russian elite is concerned about Moscow's dependence on Beijing and remains wary of China, because it is economically dependent on Western consumers. However, Russians still have few other options but to rely on China for the next 10 or more years, even if Moscow launches extensive activities in the Global South. However, thanks to the planned and already operating railway and energy pipeline networks, as well as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), Moscow is laying the foundation for its revival and hopes to balance relations with China.
Transport and trade relations
Russia's European trade has almost stopped, but life is in full swing in Asian ports. However, they need more transport links to the western part of the country. The capacity of the Siberian railway network reached 180 million tons at the end of 2024. Moscow plans to increase this figure to 270 million tons by 2032. However, last year's report noted that due to sanctions, the conflict in Ukraine and record interest rates, Russian Railways had to seriously cut its investment plans, and its goals were threatened. Despite this, China and Russia are developing direct transport links to facilitate mutual trade.
India is also exploring the possibility of expanding transit links with Russia, but currently New Delhi's contribution is still less than China's. Moscow and New Delhi have begun work on the Vladivostok-Chennai Eastern Sea Corridor through Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Putin signed a program of Indian-Russian cooperation in the field of trade, economic ties and investments in the Far East for 2024-2029. Another plan is the North—South corridor, a railway route that will connect Russia with the Indian Ocean through Iran.
The Northern Sea Route
The developing 5,600 km route across the Arctic Ocean is almost twice as short as the current route for Asian goods to western ports through the Suez Canal. However, the NSR is currently navigable only during the summer months. Moreover, Western traders will be ready to use it only after peace is established in Ukraine.
But now the NSR is already widely used for the development of rich energy and mineral deposits and the transportation of extracted resources. The region is estimated to account for 13% of the world's undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of the world's undiscovered natural gas reserves. Most of the commercial shipments through the region are for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russian enterprises to Japan and China on specialized vessels, as well as oil on sanctioned tankers. According to the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal, in 2024, a record volume of transit cargo was recorded along the NSR from northwest Russia to Asia through the Bering Strait.
The geopolitical importance of the Arctic
Patrols and exercises by Russian submarines in the area of the Faroese-Icelandic border between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom have become more frequent. For many years, Russia has been paying close attention to expanding its presence in the Arctic through the reconstruction of airfields, the opening of new bases, the training of personnel and the development of a network of defensive lines in the north. In addition, it is expanding cooperation with China. For example, in October 2024, the Chinese Coast Guard and the Russian Border Guard conducted the first joint patrol in the Arctic. To date, China and Russia have established “comprehensive” cooperation in the Arctic in the fields of resource extraction, trade, scientific research and military exercises.
Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping are both passionate about the new Arctic route, which for Putin embodies the “conquest of nature by man" — one of the leitmotifs of Russian nationalism. For China, it is an important maritime artery, currently not under the control of the US Navy.
Benefits of climate change
In Moscow and the European part of Russia west of the Urals, a noticeable increase in temperature may be observed by the middle of the century. At the same time, it is not expected that it will be accompanied by a significant decrease in precipitation or drought. However, permafrost can melt, and methane can be released into the Earth's atmosphere.
Rising temperatures are expected to boost production in Russia by increasing agricultural yields as well as arable land. A recent study in the journal Nature showed that even under the “average” scenario of rising temperatures, per capita income in northwestern Russia would increase by 20%. Earlier studies also promise the same thing: for example, the International Monetary Fund estimated in 2017 that in some parts of Russia, per capita production would grow by several percent with an increase in temperature per degree.
Renewable energy potential in Russia
In 2003, the International Energy Agency estimated that the renewable energy potential exceeds 270 million tons of coal equivalent per year. A later analysis showed that Russia has the largest technical potential of renewable energy in the world and can become a major exporter of clean energy. Russia is rich in numerous sources of renewable energy: wind, water, geothermal, biomass, hydrogen and solar energy. However, their share in Russian energy consumption is very small.
However, most countries are gradually moving away from fossil fuels. The post-Putin leadership can take advantage of this opportunity and accelerate the development of renewable sources. However, there are obstacles to this. According to the report of the Energy Innovations and Reforms project, “Russia's decarbonization strategy does not envisage either a nationwide carbon pricing system or other penalties.”
Although Russia strives for zero emissions, instead of renewable energy sources, it relies on a twofold increase in natural carbon sinks in the form of forests. Natural carbon sinks, particularly oceans and rainforests, capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and absorb more carbon than they emit. Russia also aspires to technological sovereignty, and this implies mandatory requirements for local production. With a relatively modest market and a gradual ban on cheap Chinese resources, domestic production capacity for renewable energy sources may not be enough.
Moreover, the export of renewable energy sources only partially compensates for the lost revenues from the export of fossil fuels, as energy from renewable sources becomes cheaper, and alternative generation reduces global demand. The Asian energy system, which Moscow proposed in the early 2000s, could become an outlet for energy overproduction in Russia by combining power plants in the eastern part of Russia, China, Mongolia, South Korea and Japan into a single grid. The plans have reached an impasse, but Japanese SoftBank, a potentially large investor, is not abandoning this idea.
Finally, Russia is highly competitive in nuclear energy and, according to a report by The Financial Times, remains “an unsurpassed exporter of nuclear power plants.” More than a third of new reactors worldwide are being built with the participation of the Russian state corporation Rosatom.
A friendlier environment
Indians have a particularly favorable attitude towards Russia: most of them rated the country positively in a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations for 2025. Indians tend to see Russia as a counterweight to China. Moreover, Putin organized a meeting between Modi and Xi at the BRICS 2024 summit in Kazan, which led to some defusing of Sino-Indian tensions. Modi visited Russia twice in 2024, and Putin plans to visit New Delhi in 2025.
Other Asian countries show surprisingly strong affection for Russia and are ready to continue their partnership relations, even despite the conflict in Ukraine. The majority of Chinese see Russia as an ally, according to a January 2023 survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations. The most pro-Western Asian countries, Japan, South Korea and Australia, like European countries, do not like Russia, according to a survey by the Pew Center for 2024. But most other countries in South and Southeast Asia and Africa treat Russia favorably.
Strengthening ties with North Korea also increases Moscow's importance in Asia. The agreement, signed in June 2024, “gives Russia the opportunity to exert influence in East Asia and balances Western pressure.” China is not happy that Moscow has brought North Korea out of isolation.
A new Russia?
However, potential is one thing, but real achievements are another. Without lasting peace, the young, educated, and highly skilled Russians who left at the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine may not return to restore Russia's former technological superiority. The ongoing military rivalry with the West and the growing defense budget will also undermine the resources needed to fundamentally transform the country.
However, the benefits can be very significant if the new Russia turns to the East and takes advantage of the economic opportunities offered by climate change and a more favorable geopolitical environment. Success in developing relations with the United States and the West will once again open the doors to international finance and technology, but even this will not serve as a sufficient guarantee that Russia will abandon challenges to the West.
Authors: Mathew Burrows, Collin Meisel. Matthew Burrows is an advisor to the executive office of the Stimson Center and co—author of the recently published book “The World to Come: The Return of Trump and the End of the Old Order.” Colin Maisel is Deputy Director for Geopolitical Analysis at the Frederick Purdy Institute for the International Future at the Joseph Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver.
