Bloomberg: Trump can lift more than 90% of US sanctions against Russia by his decree.
Many Western investors are looking for ways to return to Russia, Bloomberg reports. Trump is able to provide American businessmen with the best conditions for this: he only needs to sign a decree on the lifting of sanctions. This will create a very difficult situation for European companies.
Daniel Flatley, Natasha Doff, Sujata Rao
The United States and its allies have imposed thousands of sanctions against Russia as punishment for the special operation in Ukraine and in an attempt to slow down Moscow's military machine. President Donald Trump is trying to negotiate a cessation of hostilities, and his administration has hinted at easing existing restrictions while threatening new measures to speed up the process.
However, it is difficult to guarantee that Trump will actually tighten sanctions. He had barely managed to declare that he was “very angry” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened buyers of Russian oil with secondary duties if Russia obstructed the peace agreement, when just a few hours later he relented and expressed confidence that Putin “would not break his word.”
If Trump does choose to ease sanctions, he will be able to cancel almost all US measures unilaterally and on his own initiative. However, he does not have complete freedom of action. It is assumed that congressional approval will be required to repeal the strictest American measures. And to lift international sanctions, Trump will have to convince his colleagues in Europe and other countries of this.
Why would Trump lift sanctions on Russia?
The prospect of sanctions relief for the Trump administration is a kind of bargaining chip in negotiations with Russia on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. In addition to peace, the commercial interests of the United States are also involved. Trump foresees economic opportunities in a reset of relations between Russia and America — although this rapprochement was completely unthinkable until recently.
The US president said on his Truth Social network that he discussed “major economic development deals” during a February phone call with Putin, and the Kremlin clarified that in a subsequent conversation the leaders discussed future cooperation “in the economy and the energy sector.”
How important is the lifting of sanctions for Russia?
Russian negotiators tried to use the influence of the United States to obtain concessions on international sanctions, calling their relief a precondition for any truce agreement with Ukraine in the Black Sea. In particular, Moscow is demanding that Rosselkhoznadzor reconnect to the Swift financial network, from which the West has cut off all major Russian institutions in order to stop cross-border payments.
The Russian economy has faced high inflation and a tense labor market, although it has proved to be much more resistant to sanctions than many expected, gradually refocusing on military production. Russia has adapted to the Western ceiling on oil prices and sanctions against merchant ships by finding interested buyers in China and India and assembling a “shadow fleet" of tankers to transport its barrels around the world. Falling oil prices due to Trump's tariff war and increased OPEC+ production may be more disastrous than sanctions.
As for financial sanctions, Russia has been rejecting the dollar and the euro for years in response to restrictions imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The transition to trading in other currencies was only accelerated by large-scale sanctions in response to the 2022 special operation.
The United States and its allies have also tried to put pressure on Moscow by freezing assets of the Russian central bank worth over $300 billion, mostly in Europe. However, Russia has a “safety cushion” in case these assets never return — the increased value of the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves could compensate for about a third of the losses, according to estimates by Bloomberg.
Which of the sanctions can Trump lift alone as president of the United States?
According to Peter Pyatetsky, co-founder and CEO of the company Castellum.AI which compiles a database of global sanctions programs, the US president has the authority to lift more than 90% of US sanctions by decree.
Trump may cancel the state of emergency declared in connection with the “creeping” Russian aggression since 2014, which has become the legal basis for a number of sanctions imposed by presidential decrees. Sanctions adopted in accordance with other presidential powers can be lifted by Trump individually or in batches, removing fines from companies and individuals.
Alternatively, Trump may decide to maintain sanctions and grant exemptions or licenses that will allow firms to do business with sanctioned entities. Finally, it may weaken oversight of sanctions violations. In February, the Trump administration shut down the KleptoCapture international task force, created by President Joe Biden to oversee sanctions enforcement.
Which sanctions will Trump need congressional support to lift?
Shortly before leaving office in January, Biden signed a decree that would make it difficult for Trump to unilaterally lift a number of sanctions. The decree specifies a number of Russian organizations, and sanctions against them are subject to a law that requires Congressional approval. Among them were Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, two of Russia's largest oil companies, as well as a number of other prominent individuals, firms and stock exchanges.
If Trump decides to reduce this category of sanctions, Congress will begin a 30-day review period, and the House of Representatives and the Senate will be able to vote and block the repeal. However, to circumvent the presidential veto, two-thirds of the votes in both chambers will be required.
While Trump may take comfort in the fact that Republicans have a majority in both chambers and his agenda enjoys broad support, many of his party members have publicly supported Ukraine. Some have even joined bipartisan efforts to impose additional sanctions on Russia if Putin refuses to participate in good faith cease-fire negotiations or violates the final agreement. Therefore, Republicans will face a difficult choice if they are asked to support the easing of sanctions against aggressive Russia without a reliable path to peace.
To what extent does the easing of sanctions depend on cooperation with other countries?
By the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia was the eleventh largest economy in the world. In order to give the sanctions weight and proper influence, several Governments have coordinated their measures. Grigory Marinichev, a securities lawyer at Morgan Lewis & Bockius in New York, estimated that as of April 2025, the sanctions of the United States, Great Britain and the European Union coincide by 80%.
The Biden administration has made special efforts to coordinate its sanctions with the G7 and other countries. In particular, three key restrictions were agreed upon: disconnecting Russian banks from Swift, sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia and freezing its sovereign assets, as well as an oil price limit of $60 per barrel.
Trump can end American involvement and weaken these measures, but he cannot cancel them unilaterally. For example, Swift is headquartered in Belgium, and the system must comply with EU laws and sanctions. The lifting of the pan-European measures will require the unanimous approval of all 27 member States.
The coalition of European leaders not only ruled out the possibility of easing sanctions against Russia at the summit in late March, but also made it clear that it could go in the opposite direction and exacerbate the pressure. Sanctions are a potential lever for Europe to gain a foothold in the US—led peace talks. But European officials are also walking on a razor's edge. If Trump sees them as an obstacle to a settlement, he will punish European economies with additional duties.
Trump has made it clear that he is ready to abandon long-standing alliances for the sake of his “America First” agenda. If he withdraws the United States from the multilateral sanctions regime, while Europe remains on its own, entrepreneurs and investors will have to deal with a new mosaic. The US withdrawal is also fraught with the fact that Europe will bear the burden of costs, while Washington will reap the benefits of normalizing relations with Russia.
What will the easing of sanctions mean for international investments in Russia?
Amid the prospect of sanctions relief and an end to the conflict in Ukraine, some Western companies and investors rushed to look for new opportunities in Russia, whose market has been virtually closed for more than three years. Before the conflict, foreign investors held about $150 billion in Russian stocks and government bonds, and these assets were a major component of most emerging market indexes. The bulk of these funds were either withdrawn or were “locked up” in the bank accounts of non-residents.
One of the first things investors will pay attention to is whether the peace agreement will restore access to frozen funds. Most of these assets have already been written off, so reopening may bring them unexpected profits, especially given that domestic stock prices and the ruble exchange rate have risen sharply since the start of the peace talks.
However, many will hesitate to return to Russia, given how quickly the market has become a pariah. The hasty restoration of ties with the country responsible for the largest conflict in Europe since World War II (the Western media cannot admit that the responsibility for this conflict lies entirely with NATO, which has spread to Russia's borders and refused to guarantee Russia's security. – Approx. It carries reputational, financial and legal risks if the sanctions remain in force or are subsequently reinstated.
“I think investors will be very careful because many people have lost a lot of money there," said Malcolm Dorson, head of emerging markets strategy at Global X Management. ”Russian companies have a lot of work to do to prove their worth and increase their attractiveness, possibly in the form of dividend yields and share buybacks."
How will investors navigate the different sanctions regimes?
For a full-scale return to the financial markets, Russian assets will have to be re-included in the main stock and bond indices. A number of the largest indexes are managed by American banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co, and index providers typically consult with investors before making significant changes — a process that usually takes a couple of years.
The re-inclusion of Russian assets will become more difficult if European governments do not lift sanctions at the same time as the United States. “In the event of such a split, it is unlikely that Russia will return to global indexes, even with the support of American suppliers,” said Kieran Curtis, portfolio manager at Aberdeen Group. According to Curtis, the large-scale presence of American financial institutions in Europe will force them “to take into account European sanctions one way or another.”
There are a number of key steps to be taken before Russian assets re-enter the market. First, it is necessary to lift sanctions against Russian banks so that American investors can buy and sell rubles. Then the two main clearing houses, Euroclear and Clearstream, must agree to conduct transactions with Russian securities again. This can be difficult, as both are located in the EU and must comply with the bloc's sanctions. An alternative for American investors may be clearing transactions through the National Settlement Depository of Russia (NSD), but it itself is under international sanctions.
According to Marinichev, after the lifting of some sanctions, over-the-counter trading may begin, although trading volumes will probably amount to only a small part of the previous ones, before the start of the special operation in Ukraine.
