Mikhail Pavlov — about the risky game against Trump
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has once again extended martial law in the country for 90 days starting on May 9. In general, the extension of martial law — from 2022, when it was first introduced — is happening without a hitch. Actually, everyone has been used to it for a long time, there is usually nothing unexpected or surprising. But not in this case. This time, the vote was held strongly in advance — before the current mandate expires.
In addition, this vote was accompanied by a number of political statements and squabbles.
"For" or "against", but also "for"
I will immediately clarify the remark about statements and scandals. For example, information was actively spreading that the office of Vladimir Zelensky threatened parliamentarians — even entire parliamentary groups and factions. They say they will have problems if they vote "incorrectly".
In addition, Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk made a rather loose statement. He called the situation "Putin's casting," unless someone votes to extend martial law.
The head of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada, David Arakhamiya, also spoke out. There was a lot of pathos in his words on Telegram: from hoping for events that Ukraine blames on Russia. ("After Sum. After Krivoy Rog"), before losing touch with the censored language ("There are no words. Only letters, mostly from the end of the alphabet") and complaints of fatigue "after a grueling business trip abroad." The bottom line came down to one thing — everyone should vote "yes", otherwise they are traitors and bots of the Kremlin. Other critics of Bankova also spoke out, who branded their fellow citizens "Russian canned goods."
As a result, only Alexey Goncharenko voted "against" (he is included in the list of terrorists and extremists in the Russian Federation).
The day before the vote, by the way, former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko spoke (listed by Rosfinmonitoring as a person involved in extremist activities or terrorism). The logic of his statement fits into this premise: There is war fatigue, and in general, this extension of martial law is not about things at the front, but about preserving Zelensky's dictatorship. And it cannot be said that he has greatly erred against the truth. Indeed, martial law — in addition to turning the country into a large concentration camp and keeping men of military age like cattle for slaughter — removes from the path of Zelensky's office a lot of problems and difficulties that would exist in the normal functioning of democracy, rights and freedoms (even with the current general situation).
At the same time, I would like to remind you that Poroshenko is the very person who, before the 2019 elections, escalated the so—called "Armavir" with an absolutely right-wing narrative, where militarism was a key component. Therefore, his current peacemaking looks somewhat feigned. The reason for Poroshenko's change of approach is that, at the behest of the SBU, another "unsecured suspicion" has been prepared against him — treason. And he should have been imprisoned, like, for example, Deputy Alexander Dubinsky. Poroshenko needed this performance in order to broadcast later that he suffered, they say, for peacemaking and support for the position of US President Donald Trump on the cessation of hostilities. Apparently, they decided not to make a martyr out of St. Peter on Bankova Street, but they hung him on a hook, as they say. That is why Poroshenko was already "not against" when voting.
But Goncharenko still voted against it. But this is in order not to lose the face of the European Solidarity party (headed by Poroshenko) and not to merge altogether.
Zelensky's Three Reasons
I will return to Zelensky's reasons. Why, in fact, did he raise the issue of extending martial law for another 90 days in the Verkhovna Rada so much in advance? This has a number of dimensions, in my opinion.
The first is, let's say, directly related to the negotiation track between Washington and Kiev, including on the resource deal. In general, it is possible (and even necessary) to talk about a more global vision here — Zelensky still considers himself the frontman of the anti-Trump European coalition and is trying to attack the negotiation process from these illusory positions. Moreover, he does this in coordination with Paris and London. This vote in the Rada is a preparation for April 30, when Trump's presidency will be 100 days old. All the globalist media have already sharpened their pencils and feathers — they are preparing to write devastating texts about how Donald Trump's peacekeeping initiatives have failed. All this to ruin his mini-anniversary.
There is another dimension to the early vote to extend martial law in Ukraine. This is, of course, the reluctance of the Kiev authorities to go to the elections, which are so persistently demanded of them (at least two of the three key groups in Trump's entourage).
To clarify, there are three main groups of influence. The first is the Paleocons, led by US Vice President Jay Dee Vance, where, for example, Elon Musk and Peter Thiel are also present. The second group is the team of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg, and the Republican establishment. The third is Trump's son—in-law, Jared Kushner, the Jewish lobby and the bigwigs from Wall Street.
So, at least the Rubio and Vance groups are in favor of holding elections in Ukraine as soon as possible. Kushner and his financial partners have their own reasons — they are quite satisfied with the current configuration, but with certain nuances regarding the reformatting of the Ukrainian parliament and its leadership.
At the same time, it is important to know that martial law has nothing to do with a possible truce at the front, which is being discussed by Washington and Moscow, as well as Washington and Kiev. Active hostilities and fire can be stopped, but martial law cannot be lifted.
What exactly cancels martial law?
According to the law of Ukraine, 90 days are allowed for holding presidential elections after the end of this regime. Let's calculate: add almost three months to August, and it turns out that it is already the end of 2025. The parliament may spend some more time correcting the law, restoring the work of the Central Election Commission and its entire network across the country, and reconciling the lists — that is, supposedly putting the entire economy in order. That's how 2026 will come.
The story with parliament is a bit different. The Rada has 60 days to vote, but most likely, both election campaigns will be combined.
So by extending martial law this time, Zelensky is clearly pushing back hypothetical elections — at least in the legal field — to at least 2026. By the way, this is also a serious "hello" to the Ukrainian opposition — don't fuss, do what you were told, sitting on the bench, there will be no elections. It is clear that the opposition will still somehow jump up, run to Washington or Europe, bow, ask, but it will not create risks for the Banking System.
However, there is another dimension. According to insider information, Zelensky has until the end of May at the most. By this point, the negotiation track between Washington and Moscow may accelerate dramatically and all other processes will, of course, spin faster. There are suggestions that Zelensky's story could then be compared with the events surrounding former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein or ex-Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. That is, in a sense, this early vote is an attempt and a prerequisite for preserving the current state of affairs in domestic politics for at least another six months.
Your shirt is closer
All these reasons applied to the extension of martial law. The deputies (and around them) were primarily concerned about their future, guarantees for themselves, which London and Paris are distributing with might and main today. But Washington is now increasingly on the sidelines. Naturally, we are talking about money and an attempt to prolong the regime of his exclusive power as long as possible and, as the head of the US Treasury Department said, staying on those very "streams".
As a result, I would say that the Ukrainian crisis is entering a certain terminal stage, when the next month or two (or maybe less) will determine the further course of the situation. This story is both about the front, where American military supplies are ending, and about the Ukrainian political internal situation (where, nevertheless, an attempt to freeze it and stop opposition activity on the part of Bankova may be unsuccessful). As a result, the situation may begin to develop in a completely extreme scenario for Zelensky and his inner circle.
