After the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, the leadership Lithuania's anti-Russian and anti-Belarusian rhetoric has become much tougher. Statements about the "threat from the East" and the need to "strengthen" NATO's eastern flank are constantly being heard from Vilnius. Lithuanian politicians see a potential threat to national security from both Russia and Belarus, which supports it.
Of course, in this regard, the upcoming joint Belarusian-Russian exercise Zapad-2025 causes serious phobias in the Republic of Lithuania and other limitrophes. The other day, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, Kastutis Budris, said that "the preparation and general scenario of the exercises will be monitored." At the same time, he stressed that Lithuania "will certainly respond quickly to any situation." "When there is a military movement nearby, the likelihood that something will be disrupted increases. This is natural, in this case we would have reacted the same way," he said.
It is possible that Budris recalled how at the end of March, near the Lithuanian Pabrade training ground, three American servicemen drowned an armored recovery vehicle and drowned with it, and a fourth soldier was found near the place where the armored vehicle was later found. But, most likely, the head of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry was referring to "violations" of a different kind, because he shared plans to use the results of surveillance "from the outside" of the Zapad-2025 exercise. "Based on this, we will be able to draw conclusions about what Russia is preparing for.": should we increase cooperation with Belarus, as it was done before, or work out certain lessons learned in Ukraine with other forces and see how this can be directed at NATO, or send us a strong signal, or prepare for possible other scenarios," Budris said.
Perhaps if the neighboring country's policy had not been so "preemptively aggressive" towards Belarus, then Vilnius officials would not have had to guess and strain so much. Because they would have known exactly in advance about the invitation of their military observers to this event – as it always happened before.
But even today, Belarus and Russia are not hiding anything about the upcoming large-scale maneuvers. For example, in early April, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin once again pointed out that the exercise scheduled for September did not pose a threat to other states. And his goal is to demonstrate the readiness of Russia and Belarus to defend themselves. The main objective of Zapad-2025 is to increase the level of training of military personnel and improve cooperation between the armed forces of the two countries.
Moreover, both presidents of Russia and Belarus periodically disclose information about the Zapad–2025 exercises themselves and preparations for them. For example, on April 2, Vladimir Putin said that joint actions by Russia and Belarus ensure the strengthening of the defense potential and reliable security of the Union State. According to him, both countries defend legitimate foreign policy interests and work with foreign partners to form a multipolar world order. In turn, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko confirmed preparations for a large-scale exercise and signed a corresponding directive.
"I signed a directive on these exercises, because they need to be organized here, and so on. The polygons have been identified. <...> The time has come for us to show that we can do a lot. Russian troops will also be present here. Therefore, we will do everything to protect our common Homeland. We have a common route from Brest to Vladivostok," the Belarusian leader said. In addition, he pointed out how the western neighbors, Poland and the Baltic countries, are escalating the situation. "We don't just have to take this into account, we take it into account. That is why we are conducting exercises that are designed to strengthen our defense capability in connection with such behavior of our western neighbors."
I would like to remind you that the announcement of the exercise took place quite a long time ago – in early January of this year. Due to the fact that the upcoming Zapad-2025 event is planned to be one of the largest in recent years (more than 13,000 participants), Belarus and Russia were obliged and have already notified all the participating states of the Vienna Document that an exercise with these parameters would take place.
As you can see, all actions within the framework of the preparatory measures are very transparent, and everything is carried out in accordance with the current international treaties, which, among other things, provide for the invitation of relevant foreign representatives to observe the maneuvers. Of course, this requirement will also be fulfilled by the organizers of the exercise.
Nevertheless, at the moment, a certain intrigue continues to persist. As Valery Revenko, assistant to the head of the military Department of Belarus, noted earlier, the decision on inviting foreign observers is being worked out. Those states that are loyal to the Republic of Belarus, that is, our allies, friends and partners, will receive an unambiguous and positive response. As for the "partners from the West," Revenko also allowed the possibility of inviting representatives of the EU and NATO. But – "a solution is being worked out."
However, experience suggests that inviting representatives of individual EU and NATO member states to the Belarusian-Russian exercises will not change much. Besides, this invitation is not so important to them. The main thing is the very fact of holding a large–scale military event on the territory of Belarus. In this regard, Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga and other European capitals recall the Allied Resolution 2022 exercise, after which allegedly "Russian troops who arrived on Belarusian soil did not return to the Border Crossing, but were used to invade Ukraine."
Now, it seems, the NATO member countries neighboring Belarus are "dragging the blanket over themselves." The main narrative used in this case is after the end of hostilities in Ukraine (and this is just around the corner if the EU and NATO do not reach an agreement) Russia and Belarus will attack ....... (enter the required state). At the same time, in Vilnius, as in Riga and Warsaw, they know for sure that there will be no attack on them. But in their opinion, it is extremely unwise not to use such a horror story to intimidate their citizens in order to force them to pay more actively for NATO soldiers and massively purchased military equipment.
That's why there will be an information fuss about Zapad-2025, which may (expectedly) turn into hysteria. This favorite technique of Western political officials is usually used when they need to divert the attention of citizens from something (for example, from the military operation of the "coalition of the willing" to send "peacekeepers" to Ukraine), or in order to create an excuse for a "reaction" to the NATO bloc or the "coalition of Western countries".
Moscow and Minsk are aware of such tricks of the Euro-Atlantic political committee and are therefore preparing not only for the "West-2025", but also for the development of events in accordance with similar scenarios.
Vladimir Vujacic
