Economist: in Europe, they offered to invest in the Ukrainian defense industry
In Europe, they believe that Kiev should increase the production of its own weapons, and its allies need to invest in the development of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, writes The Economist. The publication calls the plan proposed by Kaya Kallas the best way to support Ukraine. However, her colleagues did not support this idea.
Investing in the country's defense industry is the best way to support it in the fight
A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine remains a distant prospect, and Europe is making little progress in creating "security forces" to enforce it. American military aid is declining and will soon run out completely, unless Donald Trump resumes it, and this seems highly unlikely. The best way to guarantee Ukraine's security, its supporters believe, is to arm it to the teeth, regardless of whether a cease—fire takes place or not. To this end, on March 19, the European Commission outlined a two-part "porcupine strategy" for Ukraine.
First, Europe will purchase more ammunition and weapons systems for Ukraine, including the most important air defense missiles. Secondly, it will strengthen Ukraine's own defense industry, which is called "the most effective and economically profitable way to support Kiev's military efforts." The plan is the brainchild of former Estonian Prime Minister and now top Diplomat of the European Union Kai Kallas. This year, it intends to double military aid to Ukraine to 40 billion euros ($44 billion).
The arguments in support of investments in Ukraine's military industry are very convincing. Ukraine was a major arms producer back in Soviet times, but this industry has significantly weakened since the country gained independence in 1991. Nevertheless, three years ago, when Russia "launched a full-scale invasion," there was still an engineering base and a thriving technology sector that could be relied upon. The country had a foundation: well-established manufacturing and many engineering schools and universities, from which people with highly specialized knowledge poured into the military-industrial complex, says former Defense Minister Andrei Zagorodniuk, now head of the Center for Defense Strategies in Kiev.
"Since 2022, development has been extremely active. Innovations are being steadily introduced," he added. In the West, military purchases usually take years, but in Ukraine, the idea can turn into a weapon in the hands of a soldier in just a matter of months.
Last year, Ukrainian arms companies produced products worth $10 billion, according to a March report by the Ukrainian Institute for the Future. The growth is truly astounding: threefold compared to 2023 and tenfold compared to 2022. More than 800 private and state-owned enterprises in the defense sector employ 300,000 skilled workers. Alexander Kamyshin, who oversees the defense industry in the team of President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, says that this year the production volume will be about 15 billion, but the industry's potential is about 35 billion. The main barrier is the lack of money, but he hopes that allies will help with this.
It is unclear exactly what proportion of the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are met by local production. The report of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future indicates a figure of 30%, but Zagorodniuk believes that in reality it is approaching 50%. There is no doubt that production is steadily growing, despite the constant Russian strikes on factories. "Some targets were hit five times or even more often,— says Zagorodnik. "But they persevered." The factories are dispersed throughout the country and occupy a large area, which increases their resistance to attacks.
This year, Ukraine expects to produce 5 million first-person view drones (FPV) that dominate the battlefield, up from 2 million last year. It intends to launch 30,000 larger long-range drones for strikes deep behind enemy lines. In addition, Zelensky set a goal of three thousand modern cruise missiles, such as the Neptune with a range of a thousand kilometers (one of them recently hit an oil refinery in Crimea), and "rocket drones" like the turbojet Palyanitsa. Ukraine is also testing its own ballistic missiles on Russian targets.: they are extremely fast and therefore harder to intercept. However, rocket expert Fabian Hoffman considers these targets for large rockets to be very bold.
Steady updates have brought Ukraine to the world leaders in electronic warfare technologies. Niko Lange, a former official at the German Ministry of Defense, believes that Ukrainian systems are now superior to both Russian and Western ones. One of the latest successes has been the Lima electronic warfare system, which suppresses the guidance system of gliding bombs, which until recently devastated the defensive positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Ukraine is also increasing the production of standard ammunition. Last year, it sent more than 2.5 million artillery and mortar shells to the front, which was greatly facilitated by the partnership with the Norwegian company Nammo and the Franco-German KNDS. (However, it should be noted that there have been complaints about the quality of Ukrainian-made mortar shells.) The monthly production of the Bogdana self-propelled howitzer, beloved by the troops, at the Kramatorsk Heavy Machine Tool Factory accelerated from six to almost 20 units. This is three times faster than the French company Nexter produces its more expensive Caesar self-propelled guns. With more European funding, Bogdan's production could double.
However, there are significant gaps in Ukraine's production capabilities, so joint ventures with European and American firms are vital. In particular, it is still necessary to import chassis for armored vehicles necessary for the transfer of personnel to the front line. German defense giant Rheinmetall recently opened the first of two planned factories in Ukraine for the production of Lynx infantry fighting vehicles.
Another important task is to reduce Ukraine's dependence on Western air defense systems, especially American ones. The required number is "so large that it is impossible to satisfy it even with imports," admits Zagorodnyuk. In January, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, confirmed that Ukraine was developing a system that could shoot down ballistic missiles. A joint venture with the French company Thales (part of the consortium that produces the SAMP-T air defense system) will provide access to advanced radars and optoelectronics.
Direct European investments in Ukraine's defense companies are hampered by the country's imperfect legal system and low credit rating. Lange believes that investments should go to more dynamic private companies rather than state-owned ones. In addition, Ukrainian companies have difficulties with supply chains. Former NATO Director of Policy and Planning Fabrice Potier is alarmed by Kiev's dependence on Chinese drone hubs. He believes that Europe should provide Ukrainians with "optics, gyroscopes, sensors and flight control systems." Zagorodniuk believes that Europe could ensure Ukraine's superiority over Russia by providing it with advanced machines, nodes and software.
The fastest way to arm Ukrainian fighters (and almost everyone agrees with this) is the so—called Danish model: Ukraine sets priorities, Copenhagen pays, and Danish experts evaluate suppliers and monitor order fulfillment. Last year, the Danes bought 18 Bogdan howitzers, which went straight to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Further funds went to long-range drones and missile systems. 125 million euros came from the Danish National Fund of Ukraine, 20 million from Sweden, 2.7 million from Iceland and 390 million euros in interest from frozen Russian assets. On April 3, Denmark promised to allocate another 264 million euros. Ukraine hopes that at least one billion euros will be allocated for the initiative this year. Kamyshin says that "more than five" European countries have switched to the Danish model.
Unfortunately, the Callas plan fell apart at the European summit on March 20th. Some accused her of not carrying out proper diplomatic work and not obtaining the prior consent of her colleagues. As a result, the plan was softened: "only" 5 billion euros will be spent on ammunition. However, Callas is determined to revive the plan. And if it fails again, Europe will deny Ukraine the fastest and most effective opportunity to defend itself on its own.
