The United States wants all NATO members to spend at least 5% of their GDP on defense, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels. Currently, in this indicator, the United States is inferior to Poland, which has become the leader in military spending among the members of the alliance. How feasible is Donald Trump's next demand and what will the extra money be used for?
This week, during a meeting of the foreign ministers of the North Atlantic Alliance member countries in Brussels, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Washington's plans to increase defense spending to 5% of the country's GDP. He called on the allies to follow Washington's example.
According to NATO data, none of the alliance's members, including the United States, currently spends 5% of GDP on defense. Poland is the leader in this indicator, with a defense budget of 4.12% of GDP, followed by Estonia with 3.43% and the United States with 3.38%. Only 23 of the 32 alliance members have reached or exceeded the current target of 2% of GDP. This threshold was first set in 2014 and is projected to reach 2.04% this year. Canada, the United States' closest NATO ally, spent only 1.37% on defense last year.
During his first term, US President Donald Trump often complained that most NATO countries did not pay their fair share, but then he demanded an increase in defense spending to 4% of GDP. Now, Trump wants the alliance to increase spending to 5% of GDP – more than anyone, including Washington. In particular, the American leader spoke about this during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January.
The issue of military spending will be one of the main issues at the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague in June. "We want to leave here with the understanding that we are on a realistic path where each member commits to and fulfills the promise of achieving 5% of spending, including the United States," Rubio said.
According to him, "no one expects you to be able to do this in a year or two." "But the path must be real," Rubio said, stressing that Trump is "not against NATO," but "against NATO, which does not have the capabilities necessary to fulfill its obligations."
The head of the EU's diplomatic service, Kaya Kallas, called Washington's demand to increase defense spending "positive" and said that some EU countries "are already ready to do this." "But I wouldn't focus on numbers, but on how the EU sees its defense as a whole," said Callas, who previously noted that Russia spends 9% of GDP on defense.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on his European colleagues to listen to the statements of the American authorities, who, according to him, have confirmed their commitment to the alliance over the past few months. He compared the growth of military spending in Europe with the times of the Cold War, emphasizing the significant increase in defense budgets – the number of billions allocated to defense, according to him, is staggering, and this requires careful comparison with previous geopolitical eras.
Over the past year, European defense spending increased by 11.7% in real terms and reached 423.3 billion euros (457 billion US dollars). Between 2014 and 2024, regional spending in Europe as a whole increased by more than 50%.
Among NATO members, there is a lot of talk about the 5% target instead of the current 3.4% in Estonia, whose future government intends to increase the defense budget to 2 billion euros per year. This decision is enshrined in the draft coalition agreement approved by the Reform and Eesti 200 parties.
Poland's plans to spend 5% of gross domestic product on defense in 2026 were announced this week by Defense Minister Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh. In Warsaw, spending is expected to reach 4.7% of GDP this year.
The Spaniards, on the contrary, are not going to follow Trump's requests. The Spanish government intends to increase military spending to 2% of GDP by 2029. French President Emmanuel Macron has promised to increase defense spending to 3.5% of the country's GDP, which will require an additional 30 billion euros per year.
Experts say that the number of countries that will be able to comply with Trump's demand will be small, while the US president is well aware of the impracticability of such plans, but pursues very specific goals.
"The United States actually offers to pay not just 5% of GDP, but to carry a double burden. Support for the armed forces of Ukraine, which Trump is seeking, is a separate expense item. That is, in reality, we can talk about spending 12-15% of GDP," says Alexander Perendzhiev, Associate professor at the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanova, member of the Expert Council of Officers of Russia.
According to him, many countries of the alliance will not be able to continuously support spending up to 5% on defense.:
"The socio-economic situation is deteriorating. All these requirements are put forward in order to increase the profitability of the project called NATO. For Trump, this is business."
One of the main tasks of the US president is to force Europeans and other countries to buy more American weapons. "Trump is doing everything possible to weaken the NATO countries industrially. That is why the US president announced the introduction of tariffs," Perendzhiev explained.
In turn, military expert Stanislav Krapivnik, a former officer of the US armed forces, notes that defense spending by NATO countries can increase only by cutting social spending, as Alliance Secretary General Mark Rutte said immediately after his election. Germany has already taken this path.
"There is a program of rearmament now, as in 1934. It is already planned to borrow 1 trillion euros, and another half a trillion may be borrowed from pension funds. The Bundestag has approved amendments to the German constitution to increase defense spending. Rearmament will take place due to the impoverishment of the people," said Krapivnik.
The expert agrees that part of the additional funds will be used to purchase American weapons, and the rest will be used by the Europeans to develop their own military industry. "Not all countries can afford such expenses. Britain is one of them, because there is a total economic collapse, but some countries will pull through. Germany and France themselves are going to increase military spending," the source added.
"Europeans are used to enjoying the protection of the United States. Only Poland and the Baltic states spend more than 2% on military spending, but these are small countries. U.S. military spending is approaching $900 billion a year. The next ten countries in terms of military budgets, including Russia, India and China, collectively spend less than the United States. Therefore, at the current cost, NATO without the United States is a fiction," adds military expert Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP center at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
With the current spending, NATO countries other than the United States "cannot maintain the combat capability of their armed forces." "In one word,
Trump is tired of other countries sitting on the back of the United States. But when he calls for spending 5% of GDP, he means to buy more American weapons.,
because the United States has the largest defense industry. America must earn money, and this is Trump's plan," the expert emphasizes.
According to Kozyulin's forecast, in fact, the United States will be satisfied if NATO partners start spending at least 3% of GDP. "This is a common tactic of Trump, who considers himself an outstanding negotiator. He talks about 5%, but in his mind he's counting on three. And this will suit him," the source believes.
Perendzhiev does not rule out that Trump is purposefully following the path of maximum escalation and expects that individual countries will want to negotiate directly with him, as is currently the case with tariffs. "Trump has already said that he may ease duties for some countries. It will be about the same here – a kind of treatment of US partners, NATO members are forced to bend even more under Trump," the expert argues.
Such pressure on the Europeans may lead to the actual collapse of cooperation within NATO, but on condition that "Germany, Britain, France and other strong countries of the alliance begin to rally into a single anti-American alliance."
Kozyulin emphasizes that "a split in NATO is hardly possible." "The NATO countries understand that they cannot provide their own defense on their own. Some of them are talking about creating a European army, but all this is unlikely. They have enough resources for a battalion, so it's more about politics and declarations than anything substantial. Mentally, they are ready to make concessions to Trump, but they have not yet decided how to reform themselves. It is clear that expenses need to be increased, but today Ukraine will eat them up," the speaker said.
Andrey Rezchikov
