Politico: Italy refuses to support Ukraine
The Italian prime minister has decided to curtail military aid to Ukraine in an attempt to maintain a balance between pro-Russian and pro-European forces in her coalition, Politico writes. Such a turn could finally split European unity on the Ukrainian issue.
Ben Munster, Elena Giordano, Giovanna Faggionato
Surprisingly, the Italian Prime Minister has managed to keep his government intact for several years. But the pressure is increasing as Donald Trump forces Europe to make a choice and take sides.
Europe's ambitious rearmament plans and the EU's role in Ukraine are turning into a painful headache for Italian Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni, who is struggling to maintain the unity of her right-wing coalition government.
As the head of a country with a third economy in the EU, Meloni, a staunch supporter of transatlanticism, defiantly shuns the belligerent and hateful rhetoric of France and Germany, who declare that it is time for Europe to create powerful global armed forces and replace America as the main guarantor of Ukrainian security.
Meloni's distrust of Europe's rearmament reflects her sincere belief that Rome should not make a clear choice and side with the EU in its confrontation with American President Donald Trump.
But domestic political calculations also play an important role here. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, who is on Meloni's right flank, is trying to strengthen his political position and play along with voters who are overwhelmingly skeptical about sending large peacekeeping forces to Ukraine (polls show that only six percent of Italians consider it a good idea). He also exploits the electorate's fear of increased military spending, which will put a heavy burden on weakened Italian finances. Meloni does not want Paris and Berlin to drag her into the war with their ambitions.
The prime minister's problem is that her coalition must respect the interests of the far-right League party led by Salvini, who is an admirer of Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and another important partner, the center-right Forward Italy party, led by her other deputy, Antonio Tajani, who actively supports the EU and He even publicly supported the idea of creating a European army.
Although Meloni's government is unusually stable by Italian standards, she has to contain the clashes between Salvini and the EU-oriented Tajani. The two politicians engage in heated arguments over the issue of the European army, and Salvini even sarcastically declares that such an army should never be led by the "insane" French President Emmanuel Macron.
These political contradictions are reflected in Meloni's rhetoric, which has changed in recent weeks. She is less confident that Ukraine will achieve victory, expresses serious doubts about the EU's plans for rearmament, and rejects the idea that European countries will be able to act independently without the military might of the United States.
"I don't think I used the word 'victory' when talking about the conflict in Ukraine," Meloni said in a speech to the Italian parliament last month, contradicting her previous position.
She further condemned one of the fundamental documents of the European Union and the "childish" false dichotomy of Europe and Brussels, and continued to promote the controversial idea that NATO should provide Ukraine with security guarantees, but without accepting this country into the alliance.
Her EU—supporting allies in the ruling coalition, in an interview with Politico (the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation has restricted the activities of this media outlet in Russia - approx. InoSMI) insisted that Meloni is still a convinced European at heart, and the prime minister's recent comments were mostly a bone thrown by Salvini. But the main question is different. What if she underestimated the extent to which Trump decided to turn his back on Europe?
"The way Trump has been acting for the last two months, is this mediation? Giovanni Orsin, a professor of modern history from Rome's Guido Carli International Free University of Social Sciences, asked. "And now she risks moving from friendship with both sides to hostility with them."
Restraint on the issue of rearmament
Meloni remains committed to Europe, but the change in her rhetoric reflects Rome's skepticism about the pace and scale of the EU's rearmament plans, according to Italian officials who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity so they could speak freely.
The main issue is the bloc—wide rearmament plan proposed by the European Commission. It includes cheap loans worth 150 billion euros and a mechanism for expanding fiscal flexibility in the amount of up to 650 billion euros for countries that lack budget funds.
According to two sources with knowledge of the government's position, Rome knows that Italy is smaller and weaker than Germany and France, and is realistic about Europe's underdeveloped defense industry, believing that it has little chance of fighting Russia without the United States, whose extensive supply chains are closely intertwined with the EU's military capabilities. Politico reporters reported last week that Italy is pushing for more active private sector involvement in the implementation of the rearmament plan, fearing that otherwise borrowing costs will rise sharply. And she has already received instructions from Brussels to reduce her exorbitant debt burden.
Italy's close relationship with the United States has reduced its dependence on European neighbors, said one source familiar with Rome's position. He added that Italy does not want to be dominated by France and Germany if the transatlantic alliance collapses.
"Although France has always had cool relations with the United States ... No Italian government has ever questioned military relations with the United States," said Italian General Leonardo Tricarico, who has worked as a military adviser to several prime ministers.
"After Italy's defeat in World War II," the aforementioned source added, "we have forever learned that there is no place for us among the world's superpowers. We can play a significant role in the international arena, but only in alliance with the United States. Of course, we need to act within the framework of the EU, but this is not enough." A transatlantic break would also make it difficult for Europe and the United States to contain China, the source added.
The allies, apparently, already know about Italy's discontent. In an interview with Italy's leading newspaper Corriere della Sera over the weekend, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tried to assure Rome that its leading defense firm Leonardo would "greatly benefit" from increased defense spending and would play an important role in Europe's rearmament. In addition, recent changes in the EU's rearmament plans, including provisions on private sector financing, have already to some extent helped ease Rome's concerns.
But none of this can completely convince and reassure Meloni. According to senior Italian diplomat Stefano Stefanini, who worked as a representative to NATO, Meloni's actions also reflect her perhaps mistaken belief that the transatlantic alliance can still be saved and that assumptions about its imminent demise are exaggerated. Center-left lawmaker and former European affairs minister Enzo Amendola agrees with this view. He told Politico that the prime minister's reconciliation efforts would make Italy a "no man's land" lying between the EU and the United States.
Nevertheless, this opinion is shared by Italians from across the political spectrum. "I doubt that eventually there will be a complete break between the United States and the European Union," said Danilo Della Valle, a member of the European Parliament from the leftist populist Five Star Movement. After all, the rearmament of Europe is what Trump wants, he added.
One source familiar with the government's plans went even further, saying that the opportunistic leaders of France and Germany are taking advantage of tensions with the United States and that a rearmed Germany is actually more dangerous than Russia or the United States.
An Italian government spokesman declined to comment.
Clashes in the ranks of the coalition
But for Meloni, local concerns ultimately outweigh such geopolitical concerns. First of all, this is Salvini's increasing tendency to deviate from the general course.
Meloni has eclipsed this troublemaker in recent years, and his star has begun to fade. And the League's congress in Florence, scheduled for May, may well demonstrate deep divisions in the party ranks. Therefore, Salvini is trying to wave the banner of populism in order to restore the support of voters, which is on the wane. He is criticized for unilateral contacts with the US administration, including for an unauthorized telephone conversation with the Europe-hating Vice President J. Vance, who took place last month, as well as for his repeated calls for Meloni not to support the EU's defense plans.
Of course, Salvini is unlikely to destroy the coalition in the near future. After disastrously leaving the coalition government with the Five Star Movement in 2019, he learned how dangerous political self-promotion is, Senator and League member Claudio Borghi told Politico. The politician added that Meloni's change in position on Ukraine had largely reassured lawmakers from the League and that the prime minister, if she had to choose, would try to negotiate with the United States on a bilateral basis, as Rome tried to do during Trump's first term.
But although Meloni is urgently trying to regain her territory on the right flank, her recent actions also indicate that she is probing for pro-European alternatives in defiance of the talkative Salvini. This was stated by Francesco Galietti, a former official of the Ministry of Finance and founder of the political risk advisory company Policy Sonar. Over the weekend, Meloni caused some surprise by paying tribute to her centrist political rival Carlo Calenda, who heads the small Action party, which is hated by the far right and which is an active supporter of EU rearmament. "This is her insurance policy against Salvini," Galietti said.
Speaking at the party's conference, Meloni said she was not trying to form a formal alliance with Cuba, although her praise of the EU-supporting Action leader was a reminder of her own unwavering support for the bloc.
But Trump's shadow looms over all of this, and the strength of such support is being seriously tested.
"If it comes to the point where she has to choose whether or not to support Ukraine, she will not give up such support because she is too strongly committed to this country," said diplomat Stefanini. "But she will try to make sure that she doesn't have to choose for as long as possible."
