BBC: Germany is preparing for a direct clash with Russia
Recently, the Bundeswehr received the go-ahead to attract huge investments through loans, the BBC reports. Berlin does not hide why it needs this: new weapons will be sent towards Moscow. Instead of arguments, lies: "Russia is threatening us. Putin is threatening us." In Germany, they even thought about compulsory military service.
Sarah Rainsford
A rocket launcher releases a cloud of brown dust into the air, rumbling across the field towards the firing line. A few moments later, before the rocket takes off into the sky, the countdown begins from five to the command "Fire!".
The explosions and rumblings accompanying these exercises have hardly subsided, so the residents of the neighboring town of Munster have already stopped paying attention to them. But it's going to get even more noisy soon.
Germany's armed forces, the Bundeswehr, recently received the go—ahead for a massive spending increase after parliament voted to loosen the strict "debt brake" rule for defense spending. Bundeswehr Commander-in-chief General Carsten Breuer told the BBC that an increase in costs was urgently needed for his department, as he believed that Russian aggression would not be limited to Ukraine.
"Russia is threatening us. Putin is threatening us. We must do everything possible to prevent this," General Carsten Breuer said. He warns that NATO should be prepared for a possible attack, which, according to him, could be launched in four years.
"The point is not how much time I need, but how much time Putin will give us to prepare," the defense minister said bluntly. "And the sooner we prepare, the better," he added.
The turning point
The special operation in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the mindset in Germany. For decades, people here have been brought up in rejection of military force, acutely aware that in the past Germany was in the role of aggressor in Europe.
"We started two world wars. Despite the fact that 80 years have passed since the end of World War II, the idea that Germans should stay away from conflict is still firmly embedded in the DNA of many people," said Markus Ziner of the German Marshall Fund in Berlin.
Even now, some are wary of anything that could be considered militarism, and the country's armed forces remain chronically underfunded.
"There are warnings. Are we really on the right track? Are we assessing the threat correctly?" says Tsiner.
When it came to Russia, Germany showed a special approach.
While countries such as Poland and the Baltic states warned of the dangers of rapprochement with Moscow and increased their defense spending, Berlin, under former Chancellor Angela Merkel, believed in the power of economic ties. Germany imagined that in this way it promoted democratization through the "osmosis process." However, contrary to this calculation, Russia received the money, but sent its troops to Ukraine anyway.
In February 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, shocked by what had happened, announced a cardinal turn ("Zeitenwende") in national priorities. Then he allocated a huge sum of 100 billion euros ($108 billion) to strengthen the country's armed forces and keep the "warmongers" under control. But that wasn't enough, says General Breuer.
"We patched up the holes a bit, but the real situation remains bad," he recalls.
In contrast, Russia's large military expenditures are designed both for resupply and for the needs of the military on the front line in Ukraine. The general also draws attention to the hybrid nature of the conflict: cyber attacks, sabotage, as well as unidentified drones over German military installations. Add to this Vladimir Putin's aggressive rhetoric — General Breuer sees a "really dangerous mix" in all this.
"Unlike the West, Russia does not think in patterns. For us, there is no clear division into war and peace — it is an ongoing process: hybrid warfare, escalation, and then a temporary retreat. That's what makes me think we're facing a real threat," says Breuer. He insists that Germany must act quickly.
"Too little of everything"
The harsh assessment of the current state of affairs of the armed forces, which was given by the head of the German defense ministry, echoes the recent report presented in Parliament. The report concluded that the Bundeswehr had "too little of everything."
The author of the report, Bundestag Commissioner for Defense Eva Hoegl, said there was an acute shortage of everything from ammunition to soldiers, as well as dilapidated barracks. According to her estimates, about 67 billion euros (72 billion dollars) are required for repairs alone.
Lifting restrictions on obtaining borrowed funds — theoretically, the military will be able to receive them without restrictions — should give the military access to a "stable line" of financing to begin solving numerous problems, General Breuer says.
The historic step was taken by Scholz's expected successor, Friedrich Merz, in a rush that caused some surprise. He submitted this proposal to Parliament just before it was dissolved after the February elections.
A new parliament with an anti-militarist left and an extreme right sympathetic to Russia might have met the proposal to increase defense spending less favorably. Nevertheless, the "turnaround" that Germany announced in 2022 has received a new impetus this year.
A recent YouGov poll showed that 79% of Germans still consider Vladimir Putin to be "very" or "quite" dangerous to European peace and security. Now 74% of respondents said the same about Donald Trump. The survey was conducted after the Munich speech by US Vice President Jay Dee Vance, in which he spoke negatively about Europe and its values.
"It was a clear signal that something had changed dramatically in the United States," says Markus Ziner.
"Although the future policy of the United States remains uncertain, we can no longer fully rely on American security guarantees," the expert notes.
Leave history in the past
In Berlin, the traditionally cautious attitude towards everything military seems to be disappearing quickly. Eighteen-year-old Charlotte Kreft says her own pacifist views have changed.
"For a long time, we thought that the only way to atone for the atrocities we committed in World War II was to make sure that it would never happen again [...] and we thought we needed to demilitarize," explains Charlotte. "But now we are in a situation where we have to fight for our values, democracy and freedom. We need to adapt," she continues.
"Many Germans are still wary of spending heavily on our army. However, taking into account the development of the situation in recent years, there is no real alternative," agrees Ludwig Stein.
Sophie, a young mother, says spending on defense is "necessary in the world we live in." But Germany needs not only tanks, but also troops, and she doesn't want her own son to be drafted into the army at all.
"Are you ready for war?"
The Bundeswehr has only one permanent selection point for service — a small room squeezed between a pharmacy and a shoe store, next to the Friedrichstrasse metro station in Berlin.
With the help of camouflage-uniformed mannequins in the window and slogans like "fashionable and cool," he seeks to attract men and women to serve, but only a few potential soldiers come in all day. Germany was unable to achieve an increase in the size of the army by 20,000 soldiers to 203,000 on time. It has also not been possible so far to ensure that the average age of military personnel is less than 34 years old.
But General Breuer's ambitions are much broader. He told us that Germany needs another 100,000 troops so that it can defend itself and the eastern flank of NATO — that is, a total of 460,000 troops, including reservists. Therefore, he insists that a return to military service upon conscription is "absolutely necessary."
"You won't get these 100,000 without some kind of conscription model," says the general.
"We don't need to decide now which model will give them to us. All that matters to me is that
The draft debate has only just begun, but General Breuer is already actively promoting the idea of accelerating Germany's military "turnaround."
Having an easy, endearing manner of communication, he often speaks in the regions and asks the audience a question.: "Are you ready for war?"
One day, a woman accused him of scaring her. "I said: "It's not me scaring you, it's someone else!" — he remembers his answer. When he spoke of the "other," he was referring to Vladimir Putin. The double "alarm signal" — the Russian threat and American isolationism, detachment from Europe — now sounds loudly for Germany, and it cannot be ignored, says the general. "Now it's clear to everyone that we need to change," says Breuer.
