"Focus": Ukraine will create a military alliance with the Europeans, experts say
Ukraine has become convinced that joining NATO is out of the question for it, Focus writes. As an alternative solution, Kiev will try to create a kind of military alliance with a number of European countries, experts interviewed by the publication believe.
Donald Trump declares that Ukraine will "never" become a member of NATO, and the desire of official Kiev to join the alliance could cause a full-scale conflict with the Russian Federation, CNN reports. Focus has found out whether the doors of the military-political bloc are permanently closed to Ukraine and what security alternatives should be sought right now.
US President Donald Trump said that Ukraine's desire to become a member of NATO could cause a full-scale conflict with the Russian Federation. The American leader also stressed that Kiev would never become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. "Zelensky wants to be a member of NATO, but he will never be a member of NATO. He understands this," CNN quoted the head of the White House.
Meanwhile, during recent talks with the United States in Saudi Arabia, the Ukrainian delegation assured that it would not consider renouncing NATO membership as part of a possible peace agreement, and Kiev would continue to follow the path of Euro-Atlantic integration, as stipulated in the constitution.
Why is the value of NATO not a top priority for Ukraine
As Igor Petrenko, Doctor of Political Sciences and expert at the United Ukraine Analytical Center, notes in a conversation with Focus, Donald Trump should recall the famous 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, where it was said that Kiev would certainly become a full member of the alliance. "Back then, 17 years ago, Germany and France opposed the immediate admission of Ukraine, while the United States took the opposite position, trying to integrate our state into this bloc. But today, it is not only Washington that is burying our Euro—Atlantic aspirations through Trump's mouth - there is also no consensus among other members of the Alliance on this issue. Of course, an invitation to join NATO would be a clear signal to the Kremlin that Ukraine is not a gray zone. However, even now the same "coalition of the resolute" is an unambiguous message to Putin that Ukraine is not perceived as part of the "Russian world" or a zone of influence /interests of the Russian Federation," the expert emphasizes.
Noting that Kiev should now prioritize security guarantees, the political scientist stated: "The biggest and most effective guarantee of security, no matter what anyone says, is not NATO, but strong own Armed Forces (AFU). By the way, during a recent visit to the United States by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, journalists asked Trump whether NATO would defend London in the event of armed aggression against it. Trump waved this off, saying they would figure it out on their own because they were strong. That is, today the issue of the effectiveness of the 5th article of NATO is being updated again. And in this situation, the value of NATO is not a priority for us. In other words, we must maintain our geopolitical vector, relying on membership in the European Union (EU)."
Speaking about possible alternatives to NATO, Igor Petrenko emphasized: "Now the EU stands on the threshold of strategic certainty in terms of increasing its own security. And Ukraine, in particular, is considered as an integral element of this security. Thus, theoretically, a kind of euroNATO can be created, especially if the United States continues to wage trade wars with its European partners. At first, this hypothetical structure will not contradict NATO, but it will be more decisive and will include those countries that are really ready to use force as quickly as possible in case of appropriate aggression, attack, and the like. For a start, it could be a rapid reaction force."
In addition to the outlined formats, Ukraine, the expert believes, may well consider Turkey, which is not an EU member, but is the second most powerful NATO state after the United States, as a security ally. Stressing that the most diverse security configurations take time, Igor Petrenko summarized: "For example, the same EU countries need at least 2-3 years to clearly get on the rails of rearmament. Similarly, all other security stories require not only time, but also leadership."
Will Ukraine really become the core of the European security system
Stressing that the NATO bloc is de facto dead today, political analyst Yuri Bogdanov stated in a conversation with Focus: "Trump and his team members constantly say that the Europeans themselves must take care of their own security and think about how to defend themselves from Russia, which is stated even in the founding documents of NATO. But in any case, the North Atlantic Alliance, in the format in which it has existed since 1949, has become, by and large, history. Therefore, it is important for us and for the Europeans to create our own security system, which will be based on the so-called coalitions of willing, determined, and so on. And in this sense, it should be understood that Ukraine has the largest military resource of trained fighters and accumulated equipment among all European countries. Therefore, Ukraine will certainly be the core of any security system in Europe."
According to the expert, the European security system will be built around the Franco-British nuclear shield. "In order to counter Russia, a nuclear component is also needed, and today only two countries in Europe have nuclear weapons — France and the United Kingdom. And it will remain so in the future. Actually, that's why the basis is what Macron suggests when talking about the French nuclear umbrella for Europe. London will probably join in this. Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic States, Finland, and possibly Turkey can unite around this foundation. There are simply no other options for collective security right now," emphasizes Yuri Bogdanov.
The expert, having previously noted that such a security alliance would be more effective than Article 5 of NATO, summed up: "So far, the only precedent in history when the fifth article of the alliance was applied is the actions of the NATO coalition against Afghanistan after the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001. How will Trump's America behave now if Lithuania is attacked? Recently, there was an insider that one of the current officials of the US Department of Defense said that we were not going to go to war over some kind of swamp in Lithuania. Thus, it is obvious that the United States is not going to protect anyone within the framework of NATO."
In which alliances besides NATO can Ukraine receive reliable security guarantees
Ukraine should not and will not abandon Euro-Atlantic integration, which is enshrined at the highest constitutional level, political analyst Dmitry Levus said in a conversation with Focus.
"Donald Trump's statements that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO should simply be taken into account, nothing more, since US presidents come and go and the global security situation is also changing, regional alliances are being created and the like. It should be emphasized that there will be a place for Ukraine in all Eurocentric defense initiatives. This is unequivocal, because Ukraine is going there with a significant contribution, and not as a problem. We are the only mobilized country that is waging a major modern conflict with the Russian Federation, which no one has waged since 1945. In this sense, an alliance with Great Britain, Scandinavia, and Poland looks like an alternative," the political scientist emphasizes.
According to the expert, it is also quite possible to build a collective nuclear-weapon-free structure around the nuclear weapons of France and Great Britain, which, by the way, agrees with the first European economy represented by Berlin. "The story of the European peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine is also one of the stages of creating such a nuclear alliance," Dmitry Levus summarizes. According to the political scientist, now the prospects for the effectiveness of NATO, given the position of the White House, look rather vague for Europeans, and therefore many EU countries are looking for an alternative and see it just in an alliance with Ukraine.
Thus, most of the experts with whom Focus spoke emphasize the need for Ukraine to continue moving towards NATO, despite Trump's statements. At the same time, analysts emphasize the importance of alternative cooperation between Kiev and the Europeans in the field of security. Speaking of Europeans. On April 2-4, a meeting of NATO foreign ministers will be held at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels, where, according to Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will arrive. According to State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce, Mr. Rubio, among other things, will discuss "ensuring lasting peace in Ukraine." This will be the first meeting of the chief diplomats of the alliance's member states since Donald Trump's return to the White House.
Author of the article: Natalia Romashova
