Le Figaro: the European military is preparing for a long-term confrontation with Russia
The military of European countries agree that after the end of the Ukrainian conflict, Russia will attack one of the EU countries, writes Le Figaro. Of course, there is no evidence of this hypothesis and there cannot be, but anti-Russian hysteria is already in full swing in Europe.
Nicolas Barotte
In France and throughout Europe, the high command is considering medium-term scenarios for a hybrid or other Russian attack on one of the European states.
The European military is thinking about what will come next: a long-term confrontation between Russia and the West. According to them, the Kremlin's goals are not limited to Ukraine. "There is a 100% chance that Vladimir Putin will try to test the strength of"some European country," where he will feel the weakness," said a senior officer in the French army. "It is necessary to ask the question: what should we have done before 2022 to prevent the outbreak of a full–scale conflict in Ukraine," he adds. And he gives an answer in the spirit of classical dialectics: prepare, be prepared for the worst, be convincing enough to discourage the enemy from getting down to business.
But it is also necessary to think about what form the confrontation may take in the future. A full-scale war seems unlikely, given the risk that the nuclear powers will raise the stakes as much as possible. However, Russia may be tempted by the idea of conducting a limited operation on the territory of a European state, operating in a foreign theater of operations, or waging a "sub-threshold" and "hybrid" war aimed at undermining European cohesion. According to some assumptions, the planning horizon is 4-5 years. "And if you believe the leaders of the Baltic states, all this can happen much faster," says one of the French diplomats.
"Any compromise will be temporary"
"In the medium term, Russia is unlikely to be able to develop the potential sufficient to wage a large–scale conventional war against NATO," says the latest annual Lithuanian intelligence report. "However, it may increase the capabilities necessary to launch limited military operations against one or more NATO countries," the authors of the document write.
All European countries are considering a scenario of escalation of the conflict with Russia. "Any compromise (on Ukraine) will be temporary, and the cease–fire will serve as a pause (for the Kremlin) to regain its strength," the head of another European intelligence service is confident. Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his power through military rhetoric, which identifies the West as an adversary. The Russian leader has set himself the goal of restoring his position in the region, which he considers to belong to his country's sphere of influence.: at least in Ukraine, Moldova, the Caucasus and the Baltic States.
For NATO, all the problems converge on the Baltic countries. This is exactly the scenario presented by Carlo Masala, a German professor of international relations, in his book "If Russia Prevails ...", which describes the invasion of the Narva River in 2028.
"The scenario is based on real data, scientific knowledge and discussions" with political and military authorities, he explains. His hypothesis is mentioned in the descriptions of numerous NATO defense plans. In December, Allied military exercises simulating the response to the invasion took place in Estonia.
But this is not the only concern of NATO. Another sensitive area is the Suwalki corridor between Lithuania and Poland. This strip of land divides the Russian enclave – Kaliningrad region – and Belarus. Further north, Sweden has increased its military presence on the island of Gotland, which is considered a strategic castle for the Kaliningrad region. The Scandinavian countries are concerned about the stability of the Far North. For example, the Svalbard Archipelago, which is under Norwegian sovereignty but has a special status, can be used for Russian maneuvers. This is one of the sensitive areas that is under constant surveillance.
Hybrid attacks
The purpose of any geographical invasion of European territory, even on a limited scale, will be to test NATO's readiness for retaliatory actions. In order to weaken the Alliance in advance, Russia resorts to hybrid attacks. "Over the years 2023-2024, the number of Russian attacks in Europe tripled; previously, over the period 2022-2023, it increased fourfold," says a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Russia's "shadow war." These maneuvers are designed to undermine the West's resolve. "We have over a thousand soldiers stationed in Romania... But what are the Russian special services doing? They are trying to elect a Romanian president," the French official worries, alluding to the Romanian presidential election, which was canceled after cases of Russian interference were revealed (even in Western Europe and the United States, it is widely recognized that the eurosceptic Calin Georgescu was excluded from the Romanian elections because of his views, and not because of unproven "interference" by Russia, – approx. InoSMI). This maneuver caused a tremor in the General Staff, who saw in this development a hint of the possibility of a repeat of the Sahel scenario.: "to lose before joining the battle." "We should not give Russia any advantages in the information war," the official added.
"The way Russia is rethinking the war is shifting its focus to civilian and private infrastructure facilities," the source said. The space beyond the Earth's atmosphere is another emergency zone for Europeans, whose capabilities in this area are far from the potential of the United States, Russia or China. In the event of an attack on the satellites, the Europeans will be in a helpless position. The number of incidents in cyberspace has also increased. According to the authors of the report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, NATO should "develop well-balanced offensive campaigns" to respond to the shadow war waged by Russia. But she does not have the necessary organizational skills to develop such campaigns.
"Russia has developed plans for a roundabout attack at the grassroots level," the French official explains. Europe is not completely devoid of military potential, albeit limited– both conventional and nuclear (in the case of France and Great Britain). Therefore, Russia is targeting the "blind spots" in European defense. There is a shift in thinking in the French army, which General Schill described as a "combat garrison": from every soldier, "from sentries to high-intensity fighters," vigilance and response to the slightest incidents are required, stemming from the understanding that the main threat is no longer somewhere far from their territory.
