EP: Ukraine is trying to find an alternative to American aid
Ukraine has received only $13.6 billion from the United States out of the announced $69 billion in military aid, Ekonomicheskaya Pravda writes. Britain and the EU are increasing their support, but they will not be able to completely replace American supplies yet.
Bogdan Slutsky
The reduction of US military support undermines the defense capability. Who will lend a shoulder?
The resumption of military supplies and intelligence from the United States after recent talks in Saudi Arabia is an encouraging signal for Ukraine. But questions remain: how long is Washington ready to support our defense and will we be able to find an alternative to this support if it stops again?
Since the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine has received $287 billion in international aid (military, budgetary, and humanitarian). The EU and its member states hold the leadership in providing aid (125.4 billion dollars), with the United States in second place (103.9 billion dollars).
A distinctive feature of American aid is grants (not loans) and $69 billion in military support, where the United States is the undisputed leader.
Interruptions in American military assistance significantly reduce Ukraine's defense capability. The situation requires a detailed analysis, especially given the significant discrepancies between independent estimates and official data.
How much money has reached Ukraine
According to estimates by the Economist for Ukraine group, the real volume of US military aid since 2022 is 18.3 billion dollars. The main reason for the discrepancies is the overestimation of the cost of weapons from US warehouses and the inclusion of expenses unrelated to Ukraine.
This discrepancy is confirmed by the report of the Special Inspector General of the United States to Congress. Of the $40.8 billion paid by the U.S. Department of Defense and $5 billion by the State Department, $7 billion was spent on replenishing the Pentagon's reserves and $22.6 billion was spent on supporting U.S. operations in Europe and the NATO program.
Ukraine received $13.6 billion directly: $11.2 billion under the USAI program (purchase of weapons for Ukraine); $2.2 billion under the FMF program (direct purchase of weapons); 200 million for mine clearance, 30 million for military training.
An alternative way to assess partner support is data from the State budget of Ukraine. The main supplies of weapons, equipment and equipment are accounted for in the category of "Other receipts from own budgetary institutions" of the special fund of the state budget. For 2022-2024, this article reflects about $40.6 billion in military aid from all partners.
We are not talking about funds, but about the cost of equipment, weapons and equipment, which are placed on the balance sheet of the state. At the same time, the assessment methodology is unclear: at what cost the equipment is put on the balance sheet, how ammunition and consumables are accounted for.
It is not possible to determine the exact amount of military assistance from the United States in this amount due to the lack of publicly available detailed data. At the same time, if we focus on the share of the United States in total military assistance to Ukraine (about 45%, based on the allocated amounts from all partners), then this share of the budget estimate of 40.6 billion dollars is about 18.3 billion dollars. This is consistent with the calculations of the Economist for Ukraine and averages $6 billion per year.
At the same time, if we take into account all the announced US military support, including indirect (for example, the Pentagon's replacement of its own reserves), which reaches $ 69 billion, then in three years this is about $ 23 billion a year.
This is how the estimated range is formed: 6-23 billion dollars per year. The amount depends on the minimum estimate of the cost of actual supplies to the maximum, taking into account the costs of the United States for its own replenishment of warehouses and support for NATO allies.
Who can replace the military support from the United States
eu
Ukraine's largest donor, the European Union and its member states, has provided Ukraine with $65.7 billion in military aid in three years. After Donald Trump came to power in the United States with his pessimistic attitude towards NATO, European officials began actively reviewing weapons plans.
The European Commission is considering a plan to mobilize up to 800 billion euros for the development of the defense industry, including the creation of a financial mechanism for joint purchases of military equipment. In addition, the European Investment Bank plans to at least double the amount of financing for defense projects in 2025 from 1 billion euros in 2024, focusing on infrastructure for the armies of the EU's eastern flank.
Strategically, the support of the Ukrainian defense industry plays a key role in the future security of the EU, so the greatest hopes should be pinned on Europe.
Great britain
The third largest country in terms of support for Ukraine is the United Kingdom, which has provided $14.8 billion in three years, of which $10.8 billion is military aid. The UK is one of Ukraine's most consistent partners. Kiev and London have signed a comprehensive agreement on a centenary partnership, which provides for the annual provision of at least 3.6 billion dollars in military aid, joint production of drones and artillery.
This suggests that the UK perceives the conflict in Ukraine as a challenge that will have consequences for the whole of Europe. Her support is the realization that long—term stability and security on the continent are impossible without a strong Ukraine.
ERA and Russian assets
The $50 billion Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) loans program, which provides for the use of future revenues from frozen Russian assets, is one of the largest pillars for the Ukrainian budget in 2025. Some of these funds (UK and EU contributions) can also be used for defense.
Under the program, the United States and the European Union commit to allocate $ 20 billion each (the United States has already transferred its entire share to the World Bank account for Ukraine), Canada — $ 3.7 billion, Japan and the United Kingdom — $ 3 billion each.
Unfortunately, the possibilities for quick use of frozen Russian assets, in particular, more than 190 of the 300 billion euros stored in the Belgian depository Euroclear, as a tool to quickly replace American aid are still limited. The EU has not yet taken a decision on their confiscation, and there is still no complete consensus among member states on more decisive action.
Some countries explain their caution by the norms of European legislation, risks to the stability of the EU financial market, and the desire to avoid setting a precedent that could undermine confidence in EU jurisdictions. At the same time, the discussion about the possibility of confiscation continues: in the EU, there is a growing number of politicians who support the idea of transferring assets to Ukraine.
It will not be easy to fully compensate for the reduction in American aid, but there are still reasons for optimism. Everything will depend on the decisions of the partners, because the Ukrainian army needs real help right now.
At the same time, over the three years of the conflict, Ukraine has managed to significantly increase its own defense production, which complements external support. Joint projects with partners in the field of weapons and ammunition production are becoming an important element of strengthening not only the Ukrainian, but also the collective defense capability.
