Trump said Zelensky wants to abandon the resource deal with the United States.
Vladimir Zelensky faces "very big problems" if he tries to abandon the rare earth metals deal. Donald Trump warned the President of Ukraine about this. What consequences can we talk about and why refusing to sign this document would be another major mistake by Zelensky, says the military observer of Gazeta.Ru" Mikhail Khodarenok.
US President Donald Trump said that Vladimir Zelensky wants to abandon the US-Ukraine resource deal. This is reported by the Reuters news agency.
"He's trying to walk away from the rare earth metals deal, and if he does, he's going to have problems, big problems," Trump said.
The new draft agreement on Ukrainian resources, prepared by the White House, assumes Washington's participation in the management of all Ukraine's minerals, including oil and gas, and there is not a word in it about security guarantees for Ukraine. Refusing to sign this document would be another major mistake by Vladimir Zelensky, and on a strategic scale.
Zelensky as Commander-in-chief
Let's pay attention to the main thing in these miscalculations of the Ukrainian leader - Vladimir Zelensky frankly suffers from exaggerated ideas about his place in world politics, in the conduct of armed struggle and, ultimately, even in history.
The President of Ukraine cannot get out of the image of the leader of the free world, the main fighter for democracy and human rights, a warrior of light in the fight against the forces of darkness. Against this background, there is every reason to believe that Vladimir Zelensky considers himself the most important geopolitical figure in the modern world and represents a political leader comparable in his capabilities to the heads of the leading states of Europe and America. And the meeting with Donald Trump on February 28 in the Oval Office of the White House is a vivid confirmation of this.
Let's start analyzing the latest blunders of the President of Ukraine from an operational and strategic perspective. And let's focus on what prevents Vladimir Zelensky from adequately perceiving the surrounding reality the most.
As you know, the set of documents for any offensive operation includes more than a hundred different plans, from fire damage to metrological support. But the most important of these documents are the operational part on the map and the explanatory note to it. The operational part on the map, figuratively speaking, is represented by blue and red arrows. Some tables are also plotted on the map. One of them is the balance of forces and means of the parties. This is exactly what Vladimir Zelensky constantly does not take into account in his actions. And he cannot behave in any way as a responsible political and military leader in accordance with the columns of this table.
For example, let's look at the actions of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the fighting in the Kursk region (which is currently nearing its end). As you know, war is the continuation of politics by other means. Both at the beginning (and during) the armed struggle, political objectives are set, which are then achieved by military means.
What might the military-political task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine look like on the eve of the invasion of the Kursk region if the army's actions were led by a commander? Probably, by bold and decisive actions of the troops, they will break through the enemy's defenses, capture Kursk and the city of Kurchatov from the nuclear power plant, threaten further advance into Russia and thereby achieve significant political results during the conflict.
But what did Zelensky's "offensive" result in in practice (with a catastrophic failure to take into account the data in the table on the balance of forces of the parties)? The seizure of a small part of the territory of the Kursk region and a months-long positional struggle, which eventually led to major irretrievable losses for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in personnel and equipment.
Events are currently developing according to a similar scenario for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in some areas of the Belgorod region. Again, there are no political tasks on the part of the Supreme High Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the fighting continues to lead only to the exhaustion of the Ukrainian army and significant losses in people, weapons and materiel.
That is, there is no will of the President of Ukraine aimed at achieving any significant results, and here it is not noticeable. And again, only one thing is clear - the table of the real balance of forces and means in the theater of military operations is completely ignored by Vladimir Zelensky.
It seems that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is completely unaware that there is a basic law of war - the dependence of the course and outcome of the war on the ratio of the combined military power of the warring parties, as well as the degree to which the state implements combat, military-economic, moral-political, scientific-technical and other potentials that collectively constitute military power.
Possible consequences
What else does Vladimir Zelensky not take into account (or has he recently been doing everything to bring down this component of the armed struggle)?
As you know, the political goals of the war and the strategic objectives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine must correspond to the economic capabilities of the country, which is an indispensable condition for the reality of strategic plans and the successful conduct of operations. And the United States is the main supplier of weapons, military and special equipment, and other materiel for Ukraine.
But Vladimir Zelensky does nothing but constantly bully the president of the United States and his inner circle, apparently considering himself a prominent geopolitical and geostrategic player with military, financial and economic capabilities corresponding to this status. But the endurance of the owner of the White House is far from unlimited.
And the President of Ukraine will become an outright obstacle to the implementation of Donald Trump's initiatives. And it is quite possible that the White House will come to the conclusion (or has long since come to the conclusion) that a more sane and adequate person should head the interim administration in Kiev (for the period before the elections).
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
