Shukan Gendai: Europe is rearming against Russia, but it doesn't know why.
Europe is diligently setting the world against Russia and launching a rearmament program, writes Shukan Gendai. However, the West itself is not happy about the problems that have arisen in this regard. Why fly to militarization at full speed, because Russia is not going to invade NATO, the author wonders.
Europe is beginning to arm itself.
European states have taken a hard line towards militarization. On March 4, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, proposed an 800 billion euro rearmament plan for the European Union. At the emergency summit of the European Union, held on March 6, this broad but extremely vague plan was adopted. 150 billion euros are expected to be raised in the form of loans and spent on the purchase of weapons and technology.
On March 19, the draft ReArm Europe program was unveiled. This project outlines specific legal and financial instruments to support the defense investments of the EU member States. In fact, this is an ambitious package of defense measures that provides EU countries with the financial means to rapidly and significantly increase investments in defense and defense capabilities.
The program is designed for four years. It is assumed that all currently available tools will be used immediately to mobilize up to 800 billion euros for defense investments. The key points of the program are: (1) promoting the use of public funds for defense at the national level; (2) implementing urgent large—scale investments in defense through joint procurement using a new specialized instrument, the European Security Measures (SAFE); (3) mobilizing private capital by accelerating the formation of a savings and investment alliance using The European Investment Bank (EIB) Group.
SAFE is a new financial instrument of the European Union, through which loans of up to 150 billion euros secured by the EU budget will be provided to member states. This will allow participating countries to strengthen their defense capabilities through joint procurement.
Joint purchases will ensure the interoperability of the armed forces of the EU countries, increase the predictability of the European defense industry and reduce costs, as well as create the scale necessary to strengthen Europe's defense industrial base.
The new system will offer long-term loans (up to 45 years with a 10-year grace period) at competitive prices. The loans will be financed by EU loans. They will be provided on favorable terms due to the high credit rating of the European Union, the high liquidity of European bonds and the high market demand for their issuance.
Europe is considering whether to restrict access to the new 150 billion euro defense fund to military-industrial companies from the UK: unless, of course, London signs a security partnership agreement with Brussels. Analysts believe that if Donald Trump's tariffs do not apply to the UK, it will be much more difficult for it to play the role of an intermediary.
Europe still supports Ukraine
The matter did not end with one project: on March 19, the European Commission published the European Union's White Paper on Defense. The report emphasized the need to strengthen the defense capability as soon as possible: "Rebuilding Europe's defenses will primarily require large-scale, long-term investments." Europe's goal is to have a strong and sufficient defense system by 2030.
The White Paper outlines the basics of the "European Rearmament" plan and presents arguments in favor of an unprecedented sharp increase in defense investments. In addition, the document outlines the steps needed to restore Europe's defense, support Ukraine, close critical capability gaps, and create a solid and competitive defense industrial base.
Paragraph 5 of the White Paper indicates that "support for Ukraine is currently the main priority of Europe's defense," which requires increased military assistance to Kiev (the so-called "Porcupine Strategy"). According to the initiative of the EU High Representative, EU countries should support an increase in military and other forms of support for Ukraine within the framework of long-term security guarantees.
Hungary votes against
On March 20, the next summit of the EU countries was held under the auspices of the need to provide support to Ukraine. A joint statement at the end of the summit stated that the European Council had discussed the latest developments regarding Ukraine. The text outlined in the EUCO 11/25 document was allegedly "firmly supported by 26 heads of state and Government," although Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban opposed it.
According to document EUCO 11/25, "The European Council recalls previous initiatives and confirms its unwavering and ongoing support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders." It is also mentioned that the EU will adhere to the "peace through force" approach.
While the President of the United States, Donald Trump, is stepping up efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, the European Union is demonstrating fierce opposition. This position is only confirmed by the entry into force of the 16th package of economic sanctions against Russia on February 24.
At the same time, on February 24, a confrontation between the United States and European countries over Ukraine unfolded at the UN. The United States voted against the Western resolution on Ukraine, which demanded that the Russian Federation withdraw its troops from its territory. 93 countries voted in favor of the draft resolution prepared by European countries and Ukraine, 18 states, including the United States, Israel and Hungary, voted against, 65 abstained.
The key here is the fact that the position taken by the European Union is tantamount to a call to continue the conflict in Ukraine. In a telephone conversation between the leaders of the United States and the Russian Federation, President Vladimir Putin called the cessation of foreign military assistance and intelligence supplies to Kiev important conditions for resolving the conflict. The EU's military support to Ukraine prevents the fulfillment of the conditions of a complete ceasefire.
The split within Europe itself
It should be noted that when it comes down to business and it is necessary to do something real for Ukraine, Europe begins to crumple and quarrel. In fact, on March 20, at the EU summit, the participating countries decided to continue helping Ukraine... but they were unable to reach an agreement on the immediate allocation of five billion euros to Kiev for the purchase of ammunition.
As reported by the Bloomberg news agency, the proposal to supply Ukraine with ammunition worth five billion euros was blocked by France and Italy.
At the very beginning, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaya Kallas, made a proposal to donate 20-40 billion euros to Ukraine by the end of 2025. At that time, it was assumed that each country would participate financially in such a generous project according to the scale of its economy. "Serve as many as you can." But even this not too ambitious plan did not please Italy, France, Spain and Portugal: the countries voted against it. Subsequent negotiations on the allocation of five billion euros for the purchase of up to two million large-caliber ammunition failed altogether.
What happens in the end? The United States is seriously concerned about the situation in Ukraine and is determined to bring the warring parties to peace. And the countries of the European Union and NATO cannot come to an agreement.
40,000 American soldiers will be withdrawn from Germany?
If you look at it this way, you can see confusion among Europe's political leaders. They do not understand how to respond to the active activities of Donald Trump, who has entered his second term as president, around ending the conflict in Ukraine and establishing peace. In particular, it seems that Europe, frightened by the vague prospects of a US military presence in the EU, is now determined to become a military superpower on its own terms.
What is the number of American troops stationed in Europe? Since 2022, the scale of the presence of the US Armed Forces in the European Union ranges from 75,000 to 105,000 people. At the same time, about 63,000 people are there permanently, and the rest are on a rotating basis. Germany has the largest number of American soldiers: over 35,000 troops are stationed at numerous bases throughout the country.
The question is, what is the future of the US Armed Forces in Europe? If the negotiation process goes well and the conflict in Ukraine is resolved, will Donald Trump agree to withdraw the 20,000 American troops that Biden deployed to Europe in 2022 after the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine?
These units make up only a fifth of the US armed forces in Europe. They are stationed mainly in Poland and Romania, and are partially deployed to the Baltic countries. According to a number of analysts, the withdrawal of troops in the short term may prompt European allies (for example, Great Britain, France and Germany) to believe that it is too risky to maintain eight combat groups currently stationed in the eastern part of the Alliance.
Another option: if Trump wants to teach the recalcitrant Germans a lesson, he can order the withdrawal of 30-40 thousand troops stationed in Germany.
Two percent of GDP is not enough
What about the ratio of European defense spending to GDP? The already mentioned European Union White Paper on Defense states that "defense spending by member states is expected to increase by more than 31% starting in 2021. In 2024, they amounted to 326 billion euros, which is 1.9% of the total GDP of the European Union." More specifically, investments in defense in 2024 reached an unprecedented amount of 102 billion euros, which is almost twice as much as in 2021.
The White Paper also notes that "the volume of defense spending in Europe is significantly lower than in the United States, and, even more worryingly, lower than in the Russian Federation and China." From this, it is concluded that "the restoration of Europe's defense capability will require strong and stable investments from both the public and private sectors."
During his first term as president (2017-2021), Donald Trump threatened that America would "go its own way" if other NATO member states did not increase their defense spending to at least 2% of GDP, a target set after the 2014 referendum on the status of Crimea. Since then, NATO allies have been successful: 23 out of 32 countries have raised their defense spending to the required level. But two percent, according to President Trump, is no longer enough.
The European Commissioner for Security, Defense Industry and Space, Andrius Kubilius, told reporters: "Currently, EU countries spend about 2% of their GDP on defense on average. (Thanks to the European rearmament plan) We will be able to increase defense spending to 3.5%. This is only the first stage. A NATO summit will be held in June, at which a similar figure may be approved. Some EU member states are already spending more than 4% of their GDP on defense, while some are aiming for 5%. This is a voluntary and very important decision."
But what if we look at the situation with a sober eye? Who would welcome the militarization of Europe? As can be seen from the picture below, the largest European countries have been gradually reducing the size of their armed forces lately. Under the circumstances, even taking into account the increase in defense spending, I cannot imagine who will use this defense budget to protect the country.
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| How Europe's and the United States' defense spending has changed. |
| Source: www.kommersant.ru |
Europe is diligently setting the world against Russia
Recently, the US president's special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, who is also involved in negotiations on a cease-fire and subsequent peace in Ukraine, pointed out the incompetence of Europe's political leaders. In an interview with TV presenter Tucker Carlson, which was released on March 22, when asked about the future direction of European security, he said the following: "It's a combination of posturing and a desire to simplify the situation. I think many in Europe are now trying on the image of Winston Churchill, believing that the Russians will march across Europe. I think it's ridiculous. After all, during the Second World War we did not have such an instrument as NATO."
Tucker Carlson asked Witkoff a question: "In your opinion, is Russia going to invade Europe?" Witkoff replied: "Absolutely not. Absolutely not." Carlson continued: "That's right! Why would they do that?" Witkoff stressed that he is convinced that Moscow has no plans to "absorb Ukraine": "Why would they do that?"
He then continued: "(Russia) does not need to absorb Ukraine. It's like the occupation of Gaza. Israel is quite capable of occupying Gaza, but it will not do that. Israel needs stability in Gaza. There is no need to occupy Ukraine.
The Russians have already got what they want. They took control of these five regions. They got Crimea. They have everything they want. Why would they need more?" Witkoff said.
As can be understood from Witkoff's speech, the probability that Russia will invade any of the NATO countries in the future is zero. Nevertheless, it all boils down to the fact that the current leaders of the EU countries are flying at full speed towards militarization, waving the banner of Russian aggression. It's a reason to think about something, isn't it?
