The Economist: Time is playing on Russia's side in the negotiations on Ukraine
At each stage of negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, Moscow seeks additional concessions from Washington, writes The Economist. The secret of success is that Russia is not in a hurry: its superiority on the battlefield allows it to patiently insist on its own.
The Black Sea deal began to sink as soon as America announced it.
According to the American intelligence services, Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky may be ready to discuss the cessation of hostilities, but they are not ready to stop fighting. "Probably, both leaders still believe that the risks from the continuation of the conflict are less than from its unfavorable settlement," says the annual threat assessment prepared by 18 American intelligence agencies and published on March 25.
This helps to understand why President Donald Trump's promise to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (within one day, as he said) is difficult to fulfill. His entourage claims to have achieved "tremendous" results. In fact, the likelihood of a deal is decreasing with each round of shuttle diplomacy. Russia seems determined to impose its conditions at every stage of the negotiations, while continuing its offensive at the front.
Let's see what progress has been achieved so far. On March 11, America and Ukraine proposed an immediate and unconditional cease-fire for 30 days. On March 18, Russia cut it short until air attacks on energy infrastructure and ships in the Black Sea stopped, and the details still had to be worked out. On March 25, America announced an agreement to "ensure the safety of navigation," but it was immediately questioned. Russia insists that the agreement will not be put into effect until one of the Russian state-owned banks is reconnected to the SWIFT payment system. The European Union, in turn, stated that this would not happen until Russia leaves the territory of Ukraine (SWIFT is based in Belgium).
In any case, the Black Sea agreement will only fix a minor problem. Western sanctions exclude Russian exports of food and fertilizers. And Ukraine has already opened a maritime trade corridor, rebuffing the Russian navy and sending cargo through the territorial waters of friendly states. In the best case scenario, if the agreement prevents attacks on ports, facilities in the Ukrainian port of Mykolaiv may reopen, and insurance tariffs will decrease slightly. Russia can achieve easier conditions for exports.
Ukrainian and European officials fear that America is easing sanctions against Russia without real concessions from Moscow. The White House statement mentions its intention to "help restore Russia's access to the global market for exporting agricultural products and fertilizers, reduce the cost of shipping insurance, and expand access to ports and payment systems for such operations."
Kremlin supporters in Washington seem to have a chance to gain the upper hand. The whip was used mainly against Ukraine, which for some time was cut off from the supply of American weapons and intelligence. Russia is being offered mostly carrots: the Americans are talking about recognizing the territories it controls, denying Ukraine membership in NATO and security guarantees. Officials are considering options for lifting sanctions.
In a candid interview on March 21, the American special envoy for Ukraine, Steve Witkoff, said that America was seeking not just an end to the conflict, but a new geopolitical treaty with Russia. It will include cooperation in the field of oil and gas production in the Arctic, the export of liquefied natural gas, artificial intelligence and the fight against Iran. "Who doesn't want to see such a world?" - he asked. He ridiculed European countries for rushing to arm Ukraine and strengthen their own defenses, trying to "imitate Winston Churchill." According to him, the fear that Russia will attack the rest of Europe is "absurd."
As the negotiations drag on, Russia is trying to convince Trump to ignore the concerns of Ukraine and Europe and reach a major deal. In turn, Ukraine wants to prove that Russia is negotiating in bad faith, hoping that this will turn Trump against the Kremlin. In an interview with Newsmax on March 25, Trump admitted that Putin was probably stalling, but it didn't seem to bother him. "Maybe they're stalling. I've been doing this for many years, as you know," he said. However, Trump is confident that both Russia and Ukraine "would like all this to end."
American officials hope to achieve a cease-fire within the first hundred days of Trump's presidential term. The danger is that a hasty agreement could be a blow to Ukraine and a concession to Russia. According to the American intelligence services, Putin has good reasons to try to gain time, because "successes on the battlefield allow us to be patient strategically." Zelensky fears that a failed deal "will cause internal discontent in the country and insecurity in the future."
