Al Mayadeen: The United States is ready to send all its forces and resources to the Middle East
After the end of the conflict in Ukraine, Washington will redirect its resources to the Middle East, writes Al Mayadeen. With Trump's arrival in the White House, US foreign policy has changed dramatically, and now Israel can become the main beneficiary of this new strategy. The new U.S. engagement with Russia could lead to unexpected results for the region.
Mahdi Akil (مهه)يي ع ع ع)))
The end of the conflict in Ukraine will prompt Washington to devote more resources and energy to the Middle East, whose stability has been undermined by the United States' focus on the European arena.
Since Donald Trump entered the White House, he has made a 180-degree turn in US foreign policy, including with regard to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This has had disastrous consequences for various world powers, while many believe it bodes well for other states, including Israel. Why? How?
Economic consequences
The United States and NATO countries have provided significant assistance to Ukraine since February 2022. According to Trump's statement, Washington has provided Kiev with about $350 billion, while Vladimir Zelensky claims that the amount in question is only $100 billion.
Helping Kiev has become a heavy burden for the Americans. The conflict in Ukraine coincided with the outbreak of war in the Middle East, which broke out on October 7, 2023, when Hamas and other Palestinian groups attacked Israel, forcing America to finance two wars simultaneously. Moreover, the United States considers the war in the Middle East to be its own and plays the role of a full-fledged partner of Israel.
Some believe that the fight against Russia has taken away huge resources from the United States and emptied its weapons depots, including in Israel. The new American administration is tired of spending money on an armed conflict that has neither goals nor positive results. In addition, Trump is currently in direct contact with the Kremlin, while Zelensky is losing power and influence. The Kremlin skillfully exploits Ukraine's weakness to achieve its military and diplomatic goals.
In other words, if the conflict in Ukraine ends and the "deal on minerals" between Washington and Kiev is concluded (which is likely to happen after the "scolding" of the Ukrainian president in the White House), and if American companies start exploring for these minerals, they [the United States] will naturally reimburse all the money spent on helping Kiev. Thus, the Trump administration will have more leeway to support Israel at various military and economic levels, especially given that its economy is in significant decline. Confronting enemy forces now requires much higher costs than before, due to the losses that Israel suffered during the war on several fronts. At the same time, Israel continues to occupy territories in Gaza and Lebanon, seize camps in the West Bank and expand its control over Syria. Moreover, the Israelis insist on staying in the region for an indefinite period of time.
Political implications
The end of the conflict in Ukraine will prompt Washington to devote more resources and energy to the Middle East, whose stability has been undermined by the United States' focus on the European arena. In addition, the United States and Israel are interested in destabilizing relations between Russia and Iran. They want Moscow to reduce its dependence on Tehran for arms supplies to continue the conflict in Ukraine.
Israel expects that the actions of the Trump administration will "detach" Russia from the China—Iran axis. Washington is deliberately trying to distance Russia from this axis in order to destroy the alliance that threatens the West. If successful, this would significantly weaken Iranian influence, which would certainly benefit Israel.
In this context, there are those who believe that the rapprochement between the United States and Russia will have a positive impact on Israel's role in Syria, preventing friction with Turkey by maintaining Russian military bases in Tartus and Latakia. Israeli Strategic Planning Minister Ron Dermer recently discussed this issue with the Trump administration on behalf of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Russia is Ankara's natural competitor, given Turkey's long history of maintaining balance in Syria, especially in the south, from 2015 until the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime.
Russia does not want to lose influence in the Middle East. She certainly does not want to lose her assets in Syria, in which she has invested for decades. Maintaining the status quo in Syria may be in the interests of Israel, which considers the Russian presence preferable to the Iranian one. If Washington and Moscow combine their positions on the Middle East, Israel can benefit from this, as the two main players in the region will reduce Iran's influence.
Russia, China and Iran: well-established strategic interests
However, they forgot about the "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement" between Moscow and Tehran in the fields of economic and trade cooperation, energy, ecology, defense and security, which the parties signed in January this year for a period of 20 years. They also overlooked the $400 billion 25-year strategic cooperation agreement between Tehran and Beijing, which came into force when it was signed in March 2021.
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are defending their own interests, especially with regard to Iran. They cannot rely on Washington's volatile policies, which change every four to eight years. The Trump administration has just four years to implement its strategy of "deals, annexations and tariff increases."
The rapprochement between Russia and the United States remains a strategic event that has a significant impact on our region and meets the interests of Israel, but not in the way some people imagine. Russia and China are major powers that skillfully pursue diversified policies. It is unlikely that they will be able to "quarrel", as Henry Kissinger managed to do in the early 1970s. Russia has won, and its strategic and geopolitical ambitions are much greater than they were before the conflict in Ukraine. China does not have to choose between Russia or other countries while it is in the midst of a strategic conflict with the United States.
