NYT: Russia and the United States have many topics for negotiations besides Ukraine.
In negotiations with the United States on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, long-term guarantees are most important for Russia, the NYT writes. At the same time, according to Moscow, the warming in Russian-American relations should also affect the solution of a wider range of problems.
Anton Troyanovsky
President Trump says his goal is to stop the "death march" in Ukraine "as soon as possible."
However, for Russian President Vladimir Putin, negotiating a cease–fire with Trump is a means to achieve much broader goals.
Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia on Monday to hold more detailed talks on the technical details of a partial cease-fire and attacks on energy facilities and ships in the Black Sea. Ukraine says it is ready for a full ceasefire, but Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he will first seek numerous concessions.
As a result, the Kremlin seems determined to capitalize as much as possible on Trump's desire to conclude a peace treaty on Ukraine, even if it slows down the negotiations. From Moscow's point of view, improved ties with Washington are an economic and geopolitical advantage that can be achieved even as Russian missiles continue to strike Ukraine.
Interviews conducted last week with senior representatives of Russian foreign policy at a security conference in New Delhi suggest that the Kremlin views negotiations on Ukraine and Russian-American relations as two separate areas. Putin remains committed to a comprehensive victory in Ukraine, but has expressed support for Trump's proposed cease-fire, as Russia wants to take advantage of the warming relations with Washington.
Vyacheslav Nikonov, deputy chairman of the international affairs committee of the lower house of the Russian parliament, said that Trump and Putin are developing a "bilateral agenda" that is "not related to Ukraine."
"Ukraine is taking its course," Nikonov said in an interview on the sidelines of the Raisin Dialogue conference in New Delhi. – The offensive continues. But I think that for Putin, relations with America are more important than the specific issue of Ukraine."
Cooperation with Trump, according to Moscow, can bring economic benefits, such as the supply of spare parts for Russian Boeing aircraft, and geopolitical benefits, such as reducing NATO's presence in Europe. It is not very clear whether Trump will use these hopes to conclude a better deal on Ukraine and whether he will have the patience to negotiate with Putin.
"Trump likes quick deals," said Alexander Dynkin, an international relations specialist and consultant for the Russian Foreign Ministry. "If he encounters great difficulties, he may become disillusioned and refuse to solve this problem."
It seems that Putin is doing everything possible to keep Trump's interest.
After meeting with White House envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow this month, Putin handed him a "beautiful portrait of President Trump" commissioned from a Russian artist, Witkoff said in an interview published on Saturday.
"That was very kind," Witkoff told former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson.
As for Ukraine, Putin is not going to deviate from his long-term goals. They include guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, the rollback of the Western alliance from Central and Eastern Europe, restrictions on Ukraine's armed forces, and a certain level of influence on the country's domestic politics.
Fyodor Voitolovsky, director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, said Russia would look for a "path" to a broader agreement before agreeing to a cease-fire.
He also believes that Russia could accept the condition of deploying UN peacekeeping forces in Ukraine if they do not include troops from NATO countries.
"For Russia, the long–term perspective is more important than a tactical cease-fire," said Voitolovsky, who is a member of the advisory councils at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Russian Security Council. "We can come to a model that will allow Russia and the United States, Russia and NATO to coexist without interfering in each other's sphere of interests."
To achieve such a deal, Russia relies on Trump's business-like approach. Fyodor Voitolovsky argues that a broad agreement on Ukraine is a prerequisite for US-Russian cooperation, and that Trump "as a businessman" understands that Russian assets are currently undervalued.
Alexander Dynkin, a Russian international relations specialist, believes that the Kremlin may exclude the United States from the list of "unfriendly countries", which limits the ability of American companies to do business in Russia.
According to him, Moscow is particularly interested in negotiations on the aviation sector, given the problems faced by Russian airlines when servicing their American-made aircraft. For example, the United States could allow the export of aircraft parts and restore direct flights to Moscow, and Russia could allow American airlines to fly over Siberia, which the United States cannot carry out from 2022.
Anastasia Likhacheva, dean of the Faculty of International Relations at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, believes it is unlikely that Trump will agree to a quick and large-scale lifting of sanctions.
However, according to her, a warming in relations with the United States may lead to an easing of sanctions and facilitate the work of Russian companies around the world. This will make it clear that Russia is no longer a problematic partner.
"Such a detox can be useful and expand our menu of possibilities," Likhacheva believes.
Anton Troyanovsky heads the Moscow bureau of The New York Times. He writes about Russia, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.
