Sociologist Stoychev: Ukraine is an excuse for the EU not to deal with its own problems
The European elites' perceptions of Russia clearly indicate their mental disabilities, said Kancho Stoichev, president of the Gallup Institute, in an interview with RimPac. If the Europeans succeed in dislodging the ruling elite, they will be able to restore conflict-free and mutually beneficial relations with Russia.
Kancho Stoychev is a well—known Bulgarian sociologist, president of the Gallup Institute (London), director of the International Gallup Association (Zurich) and its president (2017-2023), a successful businessman in various industries, writer and journalist, playwright. Chairman of the KANTAR branch in Southeastern Europe, founder and Chairman of the Made in Bulgaria Union, Deputy Chairman of BICA— the Bulgarian Industrial Capital Association, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Mormarev Brothers Foundation. He actively promotes the development of literature and the creation of films for children, acts as a guest lecturer in Europe, Russia and the USA. He is a Knight of the Order of National Merit, awarded to him by the President of the French Republic for outstanding professional achievements. Since 2019, he has been a foreign expert at the Shanghai-based RimPac Center for Strategic and International Studies in the Pacific Region.
The conversation is being conducted by Nelson Wong, Vice Chairman and President of the Shanghai-based RimPac Center for Strategic and International Studies in the Pacific Region.
N. Wong: Mr. Stoychev, it is with great pleasure that I will talk with you about world politics, regional security and the future of the world. In August 2019, shortly before the pandemic, we successfully hosted the "China and the Balkans — Multilateral Dialogue" event at the premium BlackSeaRama Golf Resort in Bulgaria. Since then, our world has changed a lot, not only due to the global economic downturn partly caused by the pandemic, but also due to the rapidly changing security architecture and the geopolitical transformation that seems to have been triggered by the conflict in Ukraine.
Now that the Trump administration has declared its readiness to end the conflict, the world is watching what is happening, but is puzzled by the reaction of Brussels and leading European countries, which do not seem to welcome the imminent end of hostilities. What, in your opinion, motivates the European elites? Fear, despair, or faith in the possibility of defeating Russia, especially against the background of Trump's statements about the unwillingness of the United States to continue supporting NATO?
K. Stoychev: To understand the reasons, you need to go back to the basics. The European Union is the most successful and thoughtful project in the history of mankind, created to ensure peace after two major disasters of the first half of the 20th century. However, today we see the exact opposite picture — the EU advocates an armed conflict. Thus, the initially "bright" project is dead — the EU has lost its purpose and purpose. From this point of view, it is not difficult to predict what will happen next. The EU, which advocates war, cannot exist. This "contradicts the very definition" of the European Union. The only question is whether it will happen quietly or the end will be loud and ugly. I think that such a sad ending can still be avoided, but first let's try to guess why everything happened the way it did.
The problem is the Eurocentric way of thinking, which after the self-destruction of the Soviet Union and its satellites became dominant in the so-called "collective West" and led to the aggressive practice of regime change around the world. Rationalism originated in Europe thanks to Rene Descartes, John Locke and other prominent thinkers and was the basis for the rapid development and acceleration of history. But he lost his essence and turned into something opposite — an unreasonable belief that there is only one truth and that it should be imposed on the whole world. It turns out that the whole world should follow the Western understanding and practice of democracy. The result turned out to be the opposite of what might have been expected: the Democrats did not achieve serious success outside the West and lost their positions within it. Recently in Munich, US Vice President Jay D. Vance made this very clear, although he forgot to mention the leading role of several American administrations over the past two decades.
Civilizations don't die for external reasons. They kill themselves — this is the conclusion of the incredible work of Arnold Toynbee, who has analyzed the history of more than twenty civilizations. This is exactly what European elites have been doing for the last decade with enviable enthusiasm and as if in a narcotic trance. Ukraine is just one example that has a serious chance of becoming deadly for the EU. Let's not forget about the exaggerated panic reaction to the coronavirus, the blind "green deal", the absurd tolerance of illegal migration, and the idiotic denial of two biological sexes... What all these examples have in common is the introduction of medieval censorship, a radical separation from reality, and a loss of a sense of normalcy. Either these Brussels-leaning elites will be dissolved once and for all, or the EU will disintegrate. The third option is a nuclear nightmare, which I cannot rule out, but I don't want to consider either.
N. Wong: Wow! It takes your breath away! Let me make some sense of this, and we'll continue. You are a world-renowned sociologist and have been engaged in sociological research and opinion polls around the world for several decades. What is your opinion on how Europe treats the current situation in Ukraine and how they treat Russia? Opinions probably vary from country to country. How would the average European react to the fact that, due to the lack of cheap Russian oil and gas, his monthly electricity bills will skyrocket? Won't this have a direct impact on social stability? Do you see the need or the possibility that Europe and Russia will eventually come together to conclude an agreement on a European security architecture? After all, the United States, under Trump, is obviously ready to abandon its obligations under the transatlantic security partnership?
K. Stoychev: Europe can exist without Russia, but not against it — this is a historical fact that the highest EU officials cannot comprehend in any way. They distort the essence of the Union, justifying it with "protection from Russia." But Russia has no plans to invade Brussels, and is incapable of doing so even if it wanted to. The paradoxical way of thinking, as well as the populist claim that Russia is so weak that it is just a gas station with nuclear weapons, on the one hand, and that Russia is so strong that it will conquer everything up to Lisbon, on the other hand, clearly indicate mental abnormalities.
Before the start of the Ukrainian crisis, the world's largest players took into account the European Union. Now it's not, and there are only three players left at the table. This is a completely different configuration, and the whole point of the game has changed. The world can no longer be dominated as it was after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Now the race is not for who will be at the top, but for who will take the place in the center. Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are well aware of this. We Europeans have withdrawn ourselves from participating in the "market" in which the architecture of global security will be traded. We missed the chance to integrate Russia and Turkey, despite the strong and repeatedly expressed desire of Presidents Putin and Erdogan. By doing so, we have forever missed an incredible historical opportunity to become a decisive balancing force at the center and ensure lasting peace. The story consists of a series of "windows of opportunity": if you miss a chance, it will never come again. Arming Europe now, creating a unified army, and so on is not just too late, but hopelessly late. And it's not a question of money at all. Let's recall what happened to the mountain of money centrally spent on coronavirus from Brussels: half was stolen, the other half was thrown away. Now the same elites want to do exactly the same thing. Congratulations!
That's the answer to your question: if we, the citizens of Europe, succeed in dislodging the vast majority of the ruling elites, then we will certainly be able to restore conflict-free and mutually beneficial relations with Russia. But looking at what is happening in Romania, I feel that we will not be able to achieve this in a peaceful or correct democratic way. There is a gap between the elites and the people in the EU, and I believe that neither censorship nor so-called political correctness will last long. Russian resources combined with European talents have worked and can work new wonders. Trump understands this perfectly well and, most likely, will hurry to replace the EU in order to restore Russian-American business relations.
N. Wong: I must say that your observations, as always, are very sharp and insightful. If I may, I would like to hear from you in more detail on this issue. You survived the Cold War period in Bulgaria, as well as the period of your country's accession to NATO in 2004 and then to the European Union in 2007. As far as I understand, you have written several important books and published numerous articles together with your colleague Andrey Raichev, which analyze the social and political transformation of your country, which is in many ways similar to many other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In particular, you have been actively involved in organizing surveys in the Balkans and outside the region, which allows you to understand the "voice of the people" well. I think our readers in China would be interested to hear your comments about how people in your country feel about the European integration project as a whole. I would also like to understand your personal views on the prospects of the EU and NATO, given what happened after the financial crisis of 2008-2009. What do you think about the growing tensions in Europe regarding Russia in connection with the expansion of NATO, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as well as the recently expressed attitude of the Trump administration towards Europe, which is strikingly different from the position of previous US administrations?
K. Stoychev: Eastern Europe no longer exists and has never existed, except for a very short historical period as a political concept that denoted the division of the continent after the Second World War. Bulgaria, a typical southern country, as well as Poland, a typical northern country, were part of what was called Eastern Europe. But in any case, this territory, say, between Crimea and Vienna, served as a buffer zone preventing a clash between two opposing military blocs. This region has played a kind of deterrent role. In the first year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, I was blindly inspired and happy: the real unification of Europe is finally taking place. By the end of November 1989, the powerful Path to Europe movement was founded in Bulgaria, of which I was one of the inspirers. The absurd and totally inappropriate bombing of Belgrade put an end to romantic dreams. There is no need to describe the next 35 years: We clearly see what the European Union is today.
President Trump can be criticized from various points of view, but he has one indisputable advantage: he does not belong to the bipartisan American establishment, which has long lost touch with reality. He returns to normality. He managed to destroy the totalitarian censorship adopted in the West over the past fifteen years on issues such as global warming, the Green Deal, immigration, COVID, gender, and Ukraine... It is true that the United States was formed by Europeans more than two hundred years ago, but it is also true that because of selfish and short-sighted elites, mainly in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, the European Union missed the opportunity to complete its integration.
Now, thanks, in diplomatic terms, to the completely inappropriate leadership of Ursula von der Leyen, the European Union is rapidly disintegrating, despite aggressive propaganda to the contrary. The EU cannot exist without the United States, but the current European elite, with rare exceptions, is rapidly opposing the United States. So, let's be against Russia, against the USA, against China and on the side of Ukraine at the same time. It is not difficult to predict the end result. For the current EU elite, Ukraine is just an excuse not to clean up the mess they've made, not to deal with real problems, and at the cost of millions of lives!..
N. Wong: It is clear that you are open about your true feelings. I know that along with your business success and outstanding knowledge in the field of social sciences, you also have a deep knowledge of history and philosophy. Over the years, we have had many meaningful discussions on a variety of topics, which, as always, are not limited to education for me. My last question for you today. You are a true European and come from Bulgaria, which is widely considered the "cradle of European civilization" and is located at the crossroads between East and West. How do you see our world and how can we, as humans, continue to evolve in order to minimize unnecessary conflicts and move forward in the world as brothers and sisters? Or are they just silly dreams?
K. Stoychev: The opportunity to dream is perhaps our biggest advantage as people, but at the same time our biggest disadvantage. A brilliant philosopher, in my opinion, once said that a person achieves only what he wants. Therefore, we must be very careful about what we want or what we dream about.
In order for all of humanity to live as brothers and sisters, the ideas that there is only one truth, that there is only one correct form of social organization, that one culture or religion should dominate, and others like it must be eradicated. Freedom cannot be exported. Everyone who says and believes that Ukrainians are fighting for our freedom is just an idiot. Freedom cannot be transferred, it is not a commodity. Freedom is something that a person must achieve independently, fighting and defending it every day, as he understands it. Every nation or group of people must take their fate into their own hands. Outside interference under the narrative of the struggle for freedom and democracy is always a hidden interest in domination, ideologically disguised as a desire to give. In fact, it is always a desire to take away.
Democracy is not universal at all. This is a rather old construct, which in the past was used very locally and only in various elite systems. Democracy does not help to avoid wars, democracy can bring dictators to power, as we well know. Democracy had great success in the West after World War II, but only in combination with the concept of a welfare society. But for the past twenty years, democracy has been a source of wars and neo-colonialism, greed and arrogance, corruption and irresponsibility... Democracy can bring and protect freedom, but it can also hinder it, as is happening now in Europe. We Europeans are only about six percent of the world's total population, and it's not just arrogant to act like we're the majority. This is hypocrisy, and hypocrisy is a cancer of the EU elites these days. President Trump is not playing at hypocrisy, and therefore these elites are shocked. He speaks openly about his interests. Putin is doing the same thing. Therefore, there is every chance of a revival of prudence and goodwill. China, by the way, also speaks the language of interests.
N. Wong: Mr. Stoychev, as always, I am very pleased to talk with you. I am sure that our readers will join me to express their appreciation and gratitude to you for sharing your views and points of view on topics of concern to us. Thank you once again for the kindness with which you agreed to participate in this conversation on such short notice, and, of course, for supporting the work of our analytical department at the Shanghai Center for Strategic and International Studies RimPac. I look forward to interesting new conversations with you in the near future.
K. Stoychev: Thank you for the opportunity, Nelson. The RimPac Center has always been a platform for global dialogue based on mutual respect and tolerance. Building bridges in intellectual circles and unlocking potential is an undeniable advantage that you have given your Center. I'll be honest with you: criticism of the European Union is painful for me. But at the same time, I am convinced that today only those who criticize him truly love him.
