NYT: Putin insists on his demands on Ukraine and is not going to give in
Although much of what Putin agreed to during the conversation with Trump was presented as a concession, in reality, the Russian leader remains in the same positions, writes NYT. Experts admit that the "Russian team is winning" in the negotiations on Ukraine.
Paul Sonn
When the Kremlin released a transcript of a telephone conversation between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on Tuesday, it became clear: The Russian leader has not given up on his maximalist goals in Ukraine and is unwilling to make concessions.
Much of what Putin agreed to during the conversation — including a limited thirty—day cessation of strikes on energy infrastructure from both sides, prisoner exchanges, and security talks in the Black Sea - was presented in summaries of the conversation published by Moscow and Washington as a concession to Trump.
However, the Kremlin has achieved all these goals before, considering them beneficial for itself. Thus, Russia and Ukraine have already reached a tacit mutual agreement to refrain from attacks on energy infrastructure, which are very painful for both Moscow and Kiev. In addition, Russia has been conducting prisoner exchanges with Ukraine for a long time: the repatriation of soldiers is one of the Kremlin's key interests. And uninterrupted trade in the Black Sea is crucial for the Russian economy.
The lack of clear concessions from the Russian side has alarmed Ukraine's supporters: they fear that by relentlessly adhering to his harsh demands, Putin is only stalling for time, hoping that Washington's damaged relations with Kiev will break off completely or that Ukrainian forces will collapse on the battlefield.
Putin's demands on Ukraine do not seem to have changed. According to the Kremlin, during the conversation, Putin repeated his demands for a comprehensive thirty-day ceasefire, although he knows perfectly well that they are impossible for Ukraine. Putin said that Ukrainians had undermined and violated agreements in the past, and accused Ukraine of committing “barbaric terrorist crimes" in the Kursk region.
By Wednesday, the Kremlin had already accused Kiev of violating a limited cease-fire on energy infrastructure, although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had not yet been informed by Washington about the call and had not made formal promises. Later that day, Zelensky, in a telephone conversation with Trump, accepted Russia's proposal to mutually abandon attacks on energy facilities as a first step towards a broader cease-fire. This was announced by the Ukrainian leader himself and officials of the Trump administration.
According to the Kremlin, during a telephone conversation on Tuesday, Putin also outlined his “key condition" for resolving the conflict: a complete cessation of military and intelligence support for Kiev. Analysts note that in such an outcome, without patrons and counterweights, Ukraine, far inferior to Russia, will become a permanent hostage of Moscow's overwhelming military power and will forever be stuck in the Kremlin's orbit.
In an interview with Fox News, Trump denied that Putin had put forward the termination of military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine as a condition for resolving the conflict.
“We didn't talk about help, in fact, we didn't discuss this topic at all,” Trump told interviewer Laura Ingraham, refuting the Kremlin's transcript.
Perhaps the Kremlin expects that during the negotiations, an already impatient Washington will abandon Ukraine forever, and Putin will be able to continue fighting while restoring relations with the United States. Russia can also expect that Kiev, whose affairs on the battlefield are getting worse and worse, having lost its main patron, will eventually agree to undermine its own sovereignty in favor of the Kremlin.
“The best outcome for Putin is the one in which he achieves his goals in Ukraine and normalizes relations with the United States," said Andrea Kendall—Taylor, a former U.S. intelligence official and now an analyst at the Center for a New American Security in Washington. ”Therefore, Putin intends to lead Trump by the nose and give him as little as possible to get his way."
According to Kendall-Taylor, Putin believes that he is not risking anything, since Trump has not hidden his bad opinion about Ukraine and Washington's European allies and “will not seriously want to increase pressure on Russia or renew commitments to Europe.”
“Russians have plenty of incentives to participate, play along, and make the most of the current conditions whenever possible,” Kendall-Taylor said.
Putin also has significant advantages on the battlefield. His troops are gradually retaking the territory. Ukraine's largest and most important supporter, the United States, is openly eager to get rid of Kiev and Europe as such. The Old World was caught off guard and now, having sharply realized its vulnerability, is puzzling over how to ensure its own defense — not to mention Ukraine.
“In Russian diplomacy, negotiations are often just a tool to gain time and throw the enemy off balance,” said Andrasz Rach, a senior researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
Rach said that Washington's expressed desire to reach a settlement as soon as possible gives a certain advantage to Moscow, which, on the contrary, “is not in a hurry.”
He suggested that, faced with Putin's refusal to cede territory in Ukraine, the Trump administration might start putting pressure on Russia. Trump has made such threats in the past.
On the other hand, the White House may also make a better offer to Putin.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington's influence in Europe increased significantly, and many countries that had once been subordinate to Moscow joined NATO and eventually became part of the Western world. Putin has not accepted this outcome and has always sought to engage the Trump administration in a broader discussion on European security issues. He clearly hopes that Washington will agree not only to a settlement in which Ukraine will be back in Russia's orbit, but also to reduce American influence on the continent. Washington's theoretical ability to satisfy these desires gives the White House some leverage, although previous administrations have strongly dismissed these measures as obviously impossible.
“Trump has few options on how to counter Russian rejection or feigned acceptance in order to stall for time,— said Alexander Baunov, a Russian writer and political analyst. ”The most effective method would be the stick, not the carrot and the temptation of a big deal."
In addition, Russia, not caring about the interests of Ukraine, is trying to lure Washington with the fruits of rapprochement (very strange logic of the author! – Approx. InoSMI). Russian officials praise the huge deposits of rare earth metals, claiming that they will be happy to develop them together with American companies, and promise American investors possible deals in the Russian energy sector.
On Tuesday, Putin and Trump discussed in detail, in the Kremlin's words, “a wide range of areas in which our countries could cooperate,” including cooperation in the energy sector. According to the Kremlin, the Russian leader even secured Trump's consent to hold tournaments with the participation of Russian and American hockey players.
Alexander Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Berlin Center, believes that the Kremlin expects to restore ties with the United States without reference to the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. That's why, he added, the Kremlin is shifting the discussion away from what benefits the United States from resuming relations with Russia.
“It seems that they are very, very, very good at 'reading” Trump," Mr. Gabuyev said of the Kremlin. — They know his weaknesses, and they know how to amuse his ego. And, as far as I'm concerned, the Russian team is winning at this stage.”
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* An individual who performs the functions of a foreign agent in Russia
