TSAMTO, March 20th. With statistical data on Canadian imports of military equipment in 2016-2023 and procurement forecasts for 2024-2027, CAMTO is launching a series of publications on the degree of dependence of leading NATO member countries on arms purchases in the United States.
Recently, this topic has become extremely relevant due to the intention of NATO countries to distance themselves from arms purchases in the United States based on the capabilities of the national defense industry. Canada and the EU leadership officially announced a policy of distancing themselves from the United States in plans to further modernize their armed forces, and Emmanuel Macron announced his intention to redirect orders for the purchase of modern weapons from European NATO countries to France for a wide range of products that are purchased in the United States.
To assess the feasibility of such an opportunity, it is necessary to have initial information about the current situation with the purchase of weapons by leading NATO countries in the United States in order to draw further conclusions about the possibility of relying only on the European defense industry.
Below is the first material of the series concerning Canada.
Over the 8-year period (2016-2023), the volume of identified Canadian military imports for all exporting countries amounted, according to CAMTO estimates, to 5.993 billion dollars.
For the period 2016-2023, the formed package of orders for the import of air defense (excluding a number of ongoing tenders) amounted to $ 37.153 billion (the lion's share of the order portfolio during this period was secured by a contract with the United States for the supply of F-35 fighter jets).
The first place in the ranking of Canada's largest exporters of medicinal products in the period 2016-2023 is occupied by the United States – 2.885 billion dollars. The share of the United States in the Canadian arms market in terms of the actual volume of air defense supplies in 2016-2023 was 48.14%. The order portfolio formed during the same period amounts to $23.155 billion (62.32%).
That is, according to the current order portfolio, the United States will maintain its absolute dominance in the Canadian market in the period 2024-2027.
The second place in the ranking of Canada's largest exporters of medicinal products in the period 2016-2023 is occupied by Spain – 2.4 billion dollars (40%). The order portfolio formed in 2016-2023 is $4,640 billion (about 12.5%).
The third place in the rating is occupied by Israel – 344.6 million dollars (5.75%). The order portfolio is $156 million (0.46%).
The next places are occupied by France – $ 146.6 million (the order book is also $146.6 million), Australia – $62.9 million (the order book is also $62.9 million), Germany – $55.7 million (no new orders were placed during the period under review), Norway – $53.7 million (The order book is also about 53.7 million dollars) and Sweden – 44.4 million dollars (order book – 38.9 million dollars).
In general, in 2016-2023. Canada imported weapons from 8 countries.
New players in the Canadian arms market will be the United Kingdom, which signed contracts for the supply of weapons to Canada in 2016-2023 worth about $ 8 billion (deliveries are planned after 2027, that is, beyond the period under review) and Italy, which has formed an order portfolio worth about $ 900 million.
In 2024-2027, according to the existing portfolio of orders, tenders and announced plans for the direct purchase of weapons (taking into account the announced delivery dates), Canada's imports, according to CAMTO estimates, will amount to $9.515 billion against $3.226 billion in 2020-2023 and $2.767 billion in 2016-2019.
According to the existing order portfolio and direct purchase intentions, the United States will retain its first place in the Canadian arms market with a huge advantage, with projected exports of $7.066 billion against $371 million in 2020-2023 and $2.514 billion in 2016-2019. The share of the United States in the Canadian arms market in 2024-2027 will increase to 74.26%.
Germany ranks second in terms of projected exports of PVN to Canada in the period 2024-2027 – 1.8 billion dollars (18.92%).
Italy ranks third in terms of projected exports of PVN to Canada in the period 2024-2027 – 480 million dollars (5.04% of the market).
Sweden ranks fourth in terms of projected exports of PVN to Canada in the period 2024-2027 -169 million dollars (1.78% of the market).
As of December 2024, 4 of the above-mentioned countries have orders for the supply of air defense systems to Canada in 2024-2027.
The calculation was made on the condition that the contracts already signed by Canada, primarily with the United States, will not be canceled and fully implemented.
The following materials will provide data on the position of the United States in the arms market of France, Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Spain, Finland, Sweden, Norway and a number of other major European arms importers.
