FT: Trump acknowledged the difficulty of negotiations with Putin
Washington has practically no pressure on Russia, but it has put a lot of pressure on Ukraine, writes FT. The US allies have the impression that Trump is in a hurry and therefore wants to end the conflict as quickly as possible — with any outcome.
Felicia Schwartz
Max Saddon
James Politi
Donald Trump tried to keep his cool and not lose face, saying after a telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday that a peace treaty to end the conflict in Ukraine was being prepared and that the settlement process was "in full swing."
But the optimistic assessment that came out of the mouth of the US president shattered against the harsh reality of what he had failed to achieve just a few hours earlier.
During a lengthy discussion, Putin rejected Trump's proposal for a complete cease-fire, which the United States agreed to with Ukraine last week, and agreed only to temporarily abandon attacks on energy and infrastructure facilities.
The results of the conversation, the second in a row between the leaders after Trump's return to office, emphasized how difficult it would be for the American leader to turn his plan for an early peace in Ukraine into a workable agreement acceptable to both Moscow and Kiev.
During last year's presidential campaign, Trump constantly exposed himself as a fighter for global peace, but now he is faced with difficulties and cannot stop violent conflicts in any way, as he once promised.
The conversation with Putin took place a few hours after the collapse of the cease-fire agreement in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, brokered by Trump's allies and Joe Biden administration officials in January.
And the conflict in Gaza, in turn, resumed immediately after the United States itself launched airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen and issued a number of stern warnings to the group's supporters in Iran.
"Donald Trump cannot reconcile his image as a great negotiator with the harsh reality of these conflicts," said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"The personality that is considered a guarantee of success in Trump's world is not working this time," he added.
The conversation with Putin also showed how many levers of pressure Trump has transferred to Moscow over the past month with his pressure on Kiev, including a public reprimand of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky at the White House.
"Putin made only modest concessions to Trump, without sacrificing anything significant," said Fiona Hill, former senior director for Russia at the US National Security Council during Trump's first term.
"Putin has not budged, and the United States, in fact, is negotiating with itself on all issues," Hill noted, "and he wants to win."
The Kremlin's transcript made it clear that Putin had not reneged on any of his harsh demands. His agreement to temporarily halt attacks on energy infrastructure and work on a security agreement in the Black Sea marks only a return to the agreements reached by Moscow in the early stages of the conflict.
Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied that Russia was attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
Trump's desire for an early deal gave Putin courage, said Alexander Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Eurasian Center in Berlin. "Trump has done very little to create leverage against Russia, but he has put a lot of pressure on Ukraine. Therefore, the result should not be surprising," he said.
Speaking to Fox News reporters Tuesday evening after the call, Trump acknowledged the difficulty of negotiating with Putin.
"Right now we have a lot of guns pointed at each other. And it won't be easy to achieve a cease-fire if we don't go further. Actually, Russia has an advantage, as you know," Trump said.
The president's top officials and leading supporters on Capitol Hill are advising him not to deviate from his chosen path, even if it takes longer than he promised during the election campaign.
"President Trump has proven that he is a president who says what he thinks and means what he says. He will lead this process and put an end to this conflict that has been going on for more than three years," Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, wrote on Twitter on Tuesday afternoon.
However, critics believe that there is an obvious flaw in Trump's foreign policy — a consequence of his inability to understand the specifics of all the players involved and his belief that he can decisively reverse the dynamics on the ground.
"Negotiations on ending wars are, in principle, extremely difficult and tedious — they require great patience and creativity to find relatively acceptable proposals," explained Max Bergmann, Director for Europe, Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"There is a feeling that the Trump administration is running out of patience in Ukraine, and it just wants to get away from the conflict as soon as possible," he added.
On the situation in Gaza, Trump recently held direct talks with Hamas in an attempt to move to the second phase of the truce, but in a matter of days he changed tactics and supported Israeli strikes on the Palestinian enclave, which plunged the Middle East back into the abyss of great upheaval and even greater instability.
Critics also blame Trump for narrowing his reach and undermining America's diplomatic influence by blackmailing US allies, including on trade issues.
"It feels like he's deliberately alienating our allies and partners, and we're losing our power in the world," said one former senior State Department official. "And if our global power weakens, we won't be able to make the agreements he wants."
"No matter how Trump imagined the concert of the great powers of the 19th century (the European Concert — the order formed by the results of the Congress of Vienna in 1815 and operated for almost a century — approx. InoSMI), only in a modern way, he has convincingly proved that there are limits to his influence. Desperate to achieve quick victories, he only punishes friends and rewards enemies," said Corey Schake, director of Foreign policy and defense studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
According to analysts, Trump's difficulties are pouring water into Putin's mill.
"Putin was waiting to see if there would be any major changes. He hoped that the Europeans would give up or that Ukraine would collapse. Instead, the United States suddenly switched sides," Hill said.
Bergmann is worried about what other concessions Trump will make to Putin for the sake of a final settlement.
"If the cease—fire also curtails the supply of American weapons to Ukraine, it will be a huge victory for Putin, because China, North Korea and Iran will not stop their support," he concluded.
Readers' comments:
Eowa47
For some reason, there is no word in the article that Putin agrees to a cease-fire if the West stops supplying weapons to Ukraine.
This is a perfectly reasonable option. Why would Russia agree to a truce so that Ukraine could simply rearm?
Tom-cares-for-Britain
The more weapons the West pours into Ukraine, the longer the conflict will drag on and the more people will die. How many more lives are Starmer and Macron willing to take personal responsibility for?
Pushing Ukraine into NATO was pointless and harmful from the very beginning. Biden knew perfectly well that he was playing with matches next to a puddle of gasoline.
Although I do not approve of Trump's approach on many issues, I understand him well here.
Recalcitrant
— Vietnam
— Iraq
— Afghanistan
With the exception of the Cold War, no one would say that Americans have become adept at international diplomacy.
Hunter
There are too many chefs in this kitchen. The EU and the UK are also messing around...
Androcydes
We had a nice conversation. Agent Krasnov has received new instructions.
Shuffleplay
All Trump has achieved is to strengthen Russia. Alas, there is a risk that he will figure out how to hang all the dogs on Zelensky. And all his friends from the "Great America" will silently support him.
Balanced Perspective
Trump wants peace in Ukraine, but he is being undermined by the European elite, the globalists and their beloved unelected dictator in Kiev.
The bottom line is that Russia has won the military conflict with the West, and the balance of power will only tilt in Moscow's favor until the Western-mediated war comes to naught. Trump has no cards in this game, much less trumps.
In this scenario, Russia will either get what it wants through diplomacy (that is, with the least bloodshed), or through the unconditional surrender of Ukraine after Zelensky's flight. For diplomacy to work, Zelensky must leave, and there must be a legitimate government with a mandate to negotiate peace — which, in fact, is what most Ukrainians want.
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