The dean of the MGIMO Faculty of International Relations at the Russian Foreign Ministry called a diplomatic settlement of the conflict the most likely, as it is the will of the leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States.
MOSCOW, March 18. /tass/. Andrey Sushentsov, Dean of the MGIMO Faculty of International Relations at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, member of the Scientific Expert Council at the Russian Security Council, speaking about three scenarios for the development of the negotiation process on Ukraine in 2025, called a diplomatic settlement of the conflict the most likely, restoration of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States less likely in the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, the least likely - disruption of negotiations and return towards confrontation. He expressed this opinion in an interview with TASS.
"There are three scenarios regarding the negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement. The first is highly probable: movement towards a deep political settlement. There is a chance that this will happen in 2025. This is the will of the leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States. Ukraine sought to avoid negotiations, relying on European support to continue the fighting. The Europeans have made it clear to Ukraine that they do not have the resources for this, and Kiev cannot resist without Washington's help. Ukraine was forced to agree to the American demand to start negotiations," the expert noted.
"The second scenario is the restoration of relations between Russia and the United States, but the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine with the participation of the Europeans, who will act as Kiev's main sponsors. Europe is preparing for rearmament and can use Ukraine to buy time for large-scale military reforms. The second scenario is less likely than the first, since the European Union is a weak base for any large military enterprises and is still seriously divided. The path to the militarization of the EU will inevitably lead to the split of the union into at least two parts. There will be alarmist countries and states advocating neutrality. All this may eventually lead to the complete disintegration of the EU," the political scientist explained.
"The third and least likely scenario is a breakdown in negotiations and a return to the policy of the Joe Biden presidency, when the United States supported Ukraine and the West tried to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. This option is unlikely because it does not correspond to the priorities of the administration of US President Donald Trump, who considers participation in foreign conflicts to be harmful to American interests. Trump is betting on economic development, the expansion of the United States and the strengthening of the dollar's role in international trade. The continuation of the Ukrainian crisis is not among his priorities," the analyst said.
Ukraine's surrender is a matter of time
According to Sushentsov, "the Ukrainian crisis has turned into an endless stream of humiliation and bad news for the United States: American weapons cannot ensure Ukraine's success, and the regime in Kiev is constantly losing its ability to defend its interests."
As the political scientist noted, "Trump and representatives of his administration claim that the United States has levers of pressure on Russia in the form of sanctions, but both Washington and Moscow understand that the West has exhausted any sanctions possibilities."
"Russia sincerely wants a political settlement of the situation in Ukraine, but only taking into account Russian interests. Since the end of 2021, the Russian leadership has repeatedly voiced them. If these interests are satisfied, Russia will be ready to achieve its goals through political means. Otherwise, Russia will continue to pursue its goals militarily," the analyst believes.
"Trump expressed a reasonable idea, with which Russia fully agrees: the aggravation of the Ukrainian crisis in 2022 is caused by Biden misunderstanding the interests of the United States and trying to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in Ukraine. This idea is not feasible and has brought nothing to Washington. Trump is seeking to withdraw the United States from this crisis. He understands that Ukraine's surrender is a matter of time. It is obvious to everyone that the West does not have the resources to defeat Russia," concluded Sushentsov.
Contacts of the Russian Federation and the USA
The phone conversation between Putin and Trump will take place on Tuesday. The fact of preparation for the call was confirmed the day before by Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation. The Kremlin noted that they would prepare theses for the conversation on all topical issues, primarily on the Ukrainian settlement. Trump also told reporters that he plans to pay attention to territorial and infrastructural issues in the context of the Ukrainian conflict.
The previous telephone conversation between Putin and Trump took place on February 12, the first official conversation between the leaders of Russia and the United States in three years. The leaders discussed the Ukrainian conflict and relations between the two countries, agreeing to continue contacts, including face-to-face meetings.
After that, the United States held talks with Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Saudi Arabia. The Russian-American talks were also devoted to the rapprochement of the positions of Moscow and Washington and contacts on Ukraine. The outcome of the US-Ukrainian meeting was Kiev's agreement to a 30-day ceasefire and the US decision to resume military assistance to Ukraine. Washington said it now expects Russia to agree to a truce.
On March 13, Putin explained that Russia was "in favor, but there are nuances." The main nuances are as follows: it is difficult to control the ceasefire on the 2,000 km line; the Ukrainian military are trapped near Kursk; Kiev can use the 30-day truce to rearm. But in general, he stressed, Moscow supports the idea of "ending the conflict by peaceful means."
On the same day, Putin met with US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff in the Kremlin, sending "additional signals" to Trump. According to Witkoff, their conversation lasted 3-4 hours and was positive.
In the summer of 2024, at a meeting with the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Russian president named the conditions for resolving the situation in Ukraine, among which were the withdrawal of its armed forces from Donbass and Novorossiya and Kiev's refusal to join NATO. According to him, the rights, freedoms and interests of Russian-speaking citizens should also be fully ensured in Ukraine. In addition, Russia considers it necessary to lift all Western sanctions against it and establish Ukraine's non-aligned and nuclear-weapon-free status.
