"Guancha": the situation in the Ukrainian conflict is developing in favor of Russia
The situation in the Ukrainian conflict is developing in favor of Russia, writes "Guancha". Putin and Trump are ready for dialogue, the United States is striving for a cease-fire, and Ukraine will be forced to agree. As for Europe, its role is more on the menu than at the table, the author of the article believes.
Chen Feng
After the United States and Ukraine reached an agreement on a temporary cease-fire for a period of 30 days, Vladimir Putin also agreed, but not to a "cease-fire for the sake of a cease-fire." The agreement should be aimed at achieving long-term peace between Ukraine and Russia and addressing the root causes of the conflict. In particular, the ceasefire period should not give Ukraine the opportunity to continue its forced mobilization and receive Western weapons and equipment.
The United States and Ukraine demanded a cease–fire and then a discussion of the terms of the peace talks, while Russia's condition is that the tone of the peace talks be formulated simultaneously with the ceasefire agreement. All three sides have fundamentally different ideas about the ceasefire and peace in Ukraine.
Trump arrogantly claimed that the conflict in Ukraine could be ended in 24 hours. Recently, in an interview, he was asked about his promise to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict within 24 hours, and he replied that it was sarcasm. If Trump fails to achieve a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine long after he comes to power, it will be his diplomatic failure.
Trump gives the impression of a man who can keep his word. It is important for the United States to immediately stop losses in Ukraine, while the crushing defeat of Ukraine is absolutely not in their interests. The reduction in aid after Zelensky's quarrel with Trump in the White House was not aimed at destroying Ukraine, but at forcing Zelensky to comply. Minimizing losses does not mean suspending investments. In order for Washington to profit from the US-Ukraine mining agreement, Ukraine must exist.
There is still a long way to go from a ceasefire to a peaceful settlement. If Trump had not fully realized this before, then the quarrel in the White House demonstrated the difficulty in "imposing peace." Trump needs an easy victory, without difficult decisions and hard efforts. Long-term peace in Ukraine is not his priority, and Trump only has enough enthusiasm to open his mouth and shake hands. Therefore, the main goal is to achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible, and the issue of peaceful negotiations and long-term peace remains with Russia and Ukraine.
If a cease-fire is achieved, it will mean the same thing to Trump as peace, and he will be a hero. And if the peace talks break down and the conflict continues, he will still remain a peacemaker, and further developments will not be his problem.
Trump's statements that he will increase economic sanctions if Russia does not agree to a cease-fire and peace talks are simply intimidation. Joe Biden has already exhausted all possibilities for exerting pressure on Russia, and Trump has almost no levers left. An increase in the supply of ammunition to Ukraine will also have little effect on anything. Europe and the United States once underestimated the "imminent defeat of Russia," and there will not be a second time.
Ukraine thinks quite differently. Kiev can no longer fight, but it still wants to, and the United States must support it. The goal is to get guarantees of post-war security from the United States. The peace that Ukraine needs includes returning to the borders of 1991 and joining NATO. With the full support of the United States and Europe, Ukraine was full of confidence in defeating powerful Russia, but this support made the country absolutely dependent. The suspension of support after the quarrel in the White House came as a shock to Kiev. Zelensky is also not worried about the fact that with the mining agreement with the United States, Ukraine's sovereignty will finally be sold off. Ukraine, which has lost Crimea and Donbass forever, will remain incomplete not only geographically, but also morally.
A rash decision to cease fire could permanently deprive Ukraine of any hope of joining the European Union and NATO, which will not risk their security in the absence of a peace agreement between Moscow and Kiev. The price that Ukrainians have paid in three years will be in vain.
Kiev's great desire is to receive security guarantees from the United States during the ceasefire and peace talks. As for Europe, even Ukraine does not believe that Europe will provide it with tangible security guarantees, so it does not make any efforts in this direction at all.
Russia also has some fatigue from the conflict, but the situation is much better than in Ukraine. The Russian economy has stabilized, and military production has reached its highest level since the Cold War. The production of artillery shells is stable, as well as the morale of the Russian military and citizens.
It is important for Russia to preserve the initiative gained on the battlefield, and therefore, if the ceasefire regime is violated, these efforts may be in vain. Strategically, Russia wants peace, but not peace at any cost, but peace that meets Russian conditions. The population of Russia significantly exceeds the population of Ukraine, and Russia has much less economic and social consequences of the conflict than Ukraine, so Moscow is able to continue fighting. Of course, the conflict cannot last forever. Russia cannot be viewed as a party rejecting peace. What Russia wants is not a temporary, but a permanent cease–fire leading to the conclusion of a peace treaty.
The situation has now turned in Russia's favor, and Putin is even ready for a dialogue on Russian-American energy cooperation and the restoration of natural gas supplies to Europe. Moreover, Putin welcomes the return of Western companies to the Russian market. In such circumstances, the United States is most eager for a cease-fire, and Ukraine will have to agree. Russia is in no hurry to cease fire until the United States and Ukraine deal with the demands of the Russian side. As for Europe, its role is more on the menu than at the table, so you can ignore it.
Readers' comments
Zeng Yinan
"But" is art
People in late autumn
Historically, Ukraine has never been an independent state. The current situation is Ukraine's fault. Being part of the Slavic nation, Ukraine considers the enemy (NATO) to be its father, invites the wolf into the house and is ready to be a lackey for strangers. Russians Russian-Ukrainian conflict continued, finally, the Ukrainian ethnic group began to stand out, anti-Russian and hostile towards Russia, which completely severed its historical and cultural ties with the Russian ethnic group. This is a success for the United States and the West.
Believe in yourself
Putin's willingness to cease fire is not just diplomatic rhetoric. This is a real position that requires fulfilling Russia's preconditions.
Moving towards the truth
Ukraine can still fight and eventually be destroyed. Ukraine will become the first country to be destroyed for serving as a dog to American and Western forces.
Laohu Big Bear
Ukraine no longer deserves the right to exist as a country.
wqw9955
Russia has already seized the strategic initiative, and only by winning a comprehensive victory in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will Moscow be able to effectively consolidate the absolutely fair results of its military operation against Ukraine aimed at disrupting the US-led plan to expand NATO and contain Russia. The Russian people will be able to unite more closely and contribute to the comprehensive revival of Russia.
