Al Jazeera: Iskander-1000 missile system can destroy American F-16
In response to new threats from the West, Russia is actively modernizing its arsenal of ballistic missiles, writes Al Jazeera. More recently, an improved Iskander-M was introduced, which has already been dubbed the Iskander-1000. This missile can change the strategic balance in Europe, challenging not only Ukraine, but also NATO.
Mohammed Youssef (???????????
In the context of the confrontation with the West, Russia is seeking to modernize its arsenal of intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which could trigger a new arms race between it and the rest of the European countries. The latest manifestation of this race was the announcement of the creation of a new modification of the Iskander-M ballistic missile, unofficially nicknamed Iskander-1000.
The design of the Russian Iskander-1000 followed reports of upgrades to the Iskander and Dagger missile systems in order to increase range, create more powerful warheads and improve air defense evasion characteristics. These developments coincide with Russia's response to a statement made by the United States in July 2024 about plans to deploy intermediate-range ballistic missiles in Germany by 2026.
In recent months, fundamental strategic changes have taken place in Europe, caused by the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine. It seems that the world is rapidly moving towards an arms race similar to the one that occurred at the end of the cold War. We are talking about Russian medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers, which now threaten not only Ukraine, but also, as we have already mentioned, put the whole of Europe within Russia's reach.
Ballistic missiles pose a double problem: their speed and maneuverability are higher than other conventional weapons, making them more difficult to counter. The United States is constantly developing and deploying ballistic missile defenses. Their main "trump card" is the THAAD missile defense system.
As for European countries, they mostly rely on American early warning systems for missile launches. But today they are faced with a serious problem — they have not had systems capable of intercepting intermediate-range ballistic missiles since the Cold War. In addition to the reduction in US support, Europe now faces the prospect of an unprecedented military escalation, and this time it must prepare for it on its own.
This atmosphere reminds us of what happened in the late 1970s, when the European continent found itself in the midst of an existential crisis. As the Cold War escalated, the Soviet Union began deploying RSD-10 Pioneer medium-range ballistic missiles (according to NATO classification SS-20) capable of hitting all European capitals in a matter of minutes. NATO quickly responded by deploying American Pershing-2 (Pershing II) missile systems in West Germany, which led to an escalation of a frenzied arms race, as a result of which Europe became a potential nuclear battleground for a decade.
A threat to half of Europe
Russia has been adopting longer-range tactical missiles since the end of 2023. In January 2024, US intelligence agencies confirmed Russia's deployment of North Korean KN-32B missile systems. In terms of mobility and flight characteristics, these missiles are similar to the Russian Iskander-M complex, but have a range of up to 900 kilometers and a warhead several times larger.
In November 2024, Russia unveiled its Oreshnik tactical medium-range ballistic missile with a range of up to 4,000 kilometers, capable of carrying multiple warheads and having a flight path close to intercontinental ballistic missiles (which we will discuss in detail later).
According to Russian sources, these systems can be deployed in Kaliningrad or Smolensk regions. Thus, Moscow has the opportunity to target almost half of the European continent, as well as important facilities in the Baltic Sea.
If Russia places missiles with a range of only 1,000 kilometers in the Kaliningrad or Smolensk regions, many European countries will be in range. From Kaliningrad, which overlooks the Baltic Sea and borders Poland and Lithuania, missiles can reach Poland, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and some areas of Finland, Ukraine and Norway.
From Smolensk, located near the western border of Russia, missiles can reach Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Romania. In addition, shipping in the Baltic Sea may be affected.
The deployment of Iskander-1000 missiles in Smolensk also poses a direct threat to the American F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine received in August last year.
In March 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that if American F-16 fighter jets were involved in the conflict in Ukraine, taking off from airfields in third countries (even from NATO airfields such as Poland and Romania), these airfields would become legitimate targets for the Russian military. But what are Iskander-1000 missiles and what is their significance in this context?
Iskander-1000 OTRK
Russia has recently made major changes to the characteristics of its missile systems, including the Iskander-M. Due to the increased flight range to 1,000 kilometers, this system has already been unofficially dubbed the Iskander-1000. She was first seen in May 2024 in a video dedicated to the 78th anniversary of the Kapustin Yar missile range.
The Iskander-1000 will retain the classic 9M723-1/K5 missile layout, but with a 10-15% increased solid fuel charge volume, as well as an updated engine, an improved control system and a modified warhead. To facilitate deployment, the Iskander-1000 rocket is expected to be launched using standard Iskander launchers.
According to Russian estimates, the speed of the Iskander-1000 rocket will exceed the speed of sound by about 8-9 times. It will be able to deliver high-explosive fragmentation or cluster warheads weighing up to 350 kilograms at a distance of up to 1,000 kilometers. When using conventional warheads, the missile's range can increase to 1,300 kilometers.
The Iskander-1000 has improved flight control systems and can maneuver on approach to a target, which helps to bypass air defense systems. It is equipped with a new autonomous inertial navigation system (INS) with satellite signal correction and radar guidance based on TERCOM technology (cruise missile trajectory correction system when guided), which reduces the potential range of error when hitting a target to less than 5 meters.
The development of the Iskander-1000 is a strategic shift in the balance of power between Russia and NATO, giving the Russian Bear a significant advantage over other missile launch systems, such as the MiG—31 fighter jet with Dagger ballistic missiles, by reducing detection and response time. The Russian fighter can be detected by radars and air defense satellites immediately after takeoff, which gives a head start to Ukrainian strategic facilities in 15-20 minutes.
Iskander-1000 solid-fuel rocket engines generate thermal contrast flashes that are visible only during active flight, which reduces the warning time to 2-7 minutes (depending on the distance to the target), making it difficult for European missile defense systems such as Patriot and Aster 30 SAM/T.
The new Oreshnik rocket
The Oreshnik is the last "diamond" in the Russian arsenal of intermediate—range ballistic missiles. On November 21, 2024, the Russian military launched a strike with the latest Oreshnik hypersonic missile at one of the facilities of the military-industrial complex (MIC) in the city of Dnipro (formerly Dnepropetrovsk), which Putin called "one of the newest Russian medium—range missile systems in non-nuclear equipment."
Moscow used the "Hazel Tree" in response to the fact that America and Britain allowed Kiev to fire Western missiles deep into Russian territory.
The Oreshnik is capable of carrying from three to six thermonuclear warheads with a capacity of 150 kilotons each. The main feature of the "Hazel" is the detachable head with individual guidance units. This means that each of the missile's warheads can be aimed at a separate target. The rocket is powered by solid fuel, and its kinetic energy is said to be enough to cause significant damage.
Its flight range ranges from 3,000 to 5,500 kilometers and, according to Russian media, when launched from the Far East, it is capable of reaching most military bases on the west coast of the United States. The maximum flight speed is Mach 10, which is 10 times the speed of sound, meaning it can attack at speeds of 2.5—3 kilometers per second (about 13,600 kilometers per hour) and has the ability to evade various missile defense systems.
In early December, The Washington Post published an article stating that a new Russian missile strike on Ukraine is a powerful signal of President Putin's intention to weaken NATO and subordinate Europe's security architecture to Russia's will.
"After the most aggressive nuclear signal since the start of hostilities in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly praised the missile in public statements. In particular, he argued that NATO does not have the ability to intercept it, and warned that Moscow could use it against the "decision—making centers" in Kiev," the article says.
In addition, its use marks, according to Western experts, the opening shot of a new European arms race that could drag on for decades and "eat" billions of dollars from the coffers of NATO countries and Russia.
After the launch of the new Russian medium—range missile Oreshnik, the state—owned RT channel aired an infographic showing the flight time of the rocket to the main European capitals: 20 minutes to London and Paris, 15 to Berlin and 12 to Warsaw.
For his part, the commander of the Strategic Missile Forces (Strategic Missile Forces) of the Russian Federation, Sergei Karakayev, said that the new Russian medium-range missile "Oreshnik" is capable of hitting targets across Europe and that a full-scale attack "will have an effect similar to the use of nuclear weapons."
A clear signal to Europe
Russia has learned important lessons about the nature of warfare in the 21st century and has reorganized its forces to meet the demands of this new era. After almost three years of fighting, the Russian army has significantly strengthened, despite Western claims to the contrary.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte indirectly acknowledged this reality when he noted that Russia had produced more weapons in three months than all NATO countries in a year. Moscow has repeatedly proved that underestimating its strength is a systemic mistake of the West.
The use of the Oreshnik is a clear signal to Europe that Russia has a reliable complex for medium-range nuclear strikes, and this step is aimed at influencing the strategic balance of power, especially now that it is close to negotiations with the West.
According to Aaron Stein, president of the American Institute for Foreign Policy Studies (FPRI), the launch of Oreshnik reflects Russia's attempt to influence the decisions of European capitals regarding the future of their relations with Moscow. This is similar to what happened during the development and deployment of the RSD-10 Pioneer missile during the Cold War.
The European missile crisis
The concept of nuclear deterrence has long been based on the fact that the United States and the Soviet Union (later Russia) possess arsenals of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of providing so—called "mutually assured destruction." The idea is that the fact that both sides have such enormous destructive power makes the use of nuclear weapons an irrational option.
But with the onset of the European missile crisis, the balance of power in Europe has changed. In March 1976, the Soviet Union deployed RSD-10 Pioneer missiles, upsetting the military balance in Europe and fundamentally changing the course of the Cold War.
It was the latest missile with multiple warheads and a range of 5,000 km. It was not covered by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). This has increased the West's fear of a missile capable of hitting any target in Western Europe, in addition to its high accuracy, mobility and stealth.
At that time, NATO did not have such weapons, and its nuclear arsenal in Europe had a relatively shorter range. This has caused real concerns, especially in West Germany, and has led to a serious dilemma.: The Soviet Union could now aim intermediate-range nuclear weapons at NATO territory, while maintaining the ability to strike the United States with long-range missiles.
NATO is faced with a strategic dilemma: Russia is capable of launching a nuclear strike on Europe without directly targeting the United States. This means that in the event of a limited nuclear war in Europe, the US president will have to make a risky decision: either respond with a nuclear strike against the Soviet Union and expose his country to a devastating retaliatory strike, or refrain from intervening, which could shake confidence in American security guarantees and weaken the cohesion of the alliance, which was Moscow's main goal, especially with regard to West Germany, as noted by Aaron Stein.
Berlin insisted on a U.S. response as part of NATO's "flexible response" strategy, which aims to make nuclear weapons deployed in Europe an effective deterrent.
Massive anti-nuclear protests have broken out in Europe, especially in the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands and West Germany, further complicating the political situation. Under public pressure, German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt called for a review of Europe's relationship with the American nuclear deterrent forces, which led to the culmination of the crisis.
Eventually, NATO, with the support of such prominent political figures as Margaret Thatcher and Helmut Kohl, who succeeded Schmidt as German Chancellor, began deploying the American Pershing II missile system in West Germany.
The negotiations lasted for several years and culminated in the conclusion of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), signed by Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and his American counterpart Ronald Reagan in 1987. The treaty provided for the destruction of all land-based ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers, which put an end to a period of military tension in Europe, at least until the termination of the treaty in 2019.
In 2019, US President Donald Trump withdrew from the INF Treaty unilaterally. Russia mirrored America's decision and also suspended its participation in the treaty.
Although the current situation does not look like a new "European missile crisis" yet, there are alarm bells that are being ignored, according to the French newspaper Le Monde. In July 2024, during the NATO summit in Washington, the United States and Germany announced a plan to deploy American high—precision medium—range Typhoon missile systems in Germany by 2026.
This decision was one of the excuses that Russian President Vladimir Putin used to accelerate the development and use of the Oreshnik missile in Ukraine, which increased fears that Europe was entering a new phase of military tension.
Development of new rockets
The termination of the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate—Range and Shorter—Range Missiles has provoked a complex strategic landscape, for which Russia is responsible to a certain extent. But, as Aaron Stein points out, the US role in the collapse of the arms control regime cannot be ignored. It was the United States that withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, which limited the creation of large-scale anti-missile defense systems. According to this agreement, both sides committed to have only two missile defense systems, each of which was to contain no more than 100 missiles.
The original idea of the treaty was to maintain a strategic balance so that none of the parties sought to fully protect themselves from the nuclear threat, which ensured the effectiveness of mutual nuclear deterrence. However, the US withdrawal from the treaty provoked a new arms race. In 2011, Russia circumvented the limitations of the INF Treaty by developing the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental missile. Later, it was modified and turned into a medium-range nuclear missile capable of reaching Europe. It is assumed that this particular rocket was the so-called ancestor of the "Hazel".
Washington responded by developing the Typhon medium-range missile system. It is a modern missile launcher capable of launching SM-6 anti-aircraft missiles and Tomahawk surface-to-surface missiles. ("Tomahawk"). The American Typhon system appeared in the Philippines and Denmark in April 2024. It will be available in Germany starting in 2026. In addition, the latest generation of hypersonic missiles, such as the Dark Eagle, have a range of over 2,700 kilometers.
The current situation is reminiscent of the European missile crisis of the late 1970s, but the most important change is that the arms race is no longer the exclusive prerogative of Washington and Moscow. European and Asian companies have become major players in the development of medium- and long-range missiles: the European company MBDA is developing offensive cruise missiles; South Korea is cooperating with Poland in the development of long-range missile systems; France and the United Kingdom have long-range cruise missiles such as the Storm Shadow in their arsenal.
As the conflict in Ukraine comes to an end and tensions between Russia and NATO grow, Europe finds itself on the verge of a new arms race: missile arsenals are growing and the chances of reaching an arms control agreement are diminishing. This situation is increasingly reminiscent of the Cold War.
